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I understand your reasoning that the Chinese people on the Mainland are more united than ever and will fully support Beijing in safeguarding all Chinese territory.
Taiwan is not "Chinese Territory" if you are referring to the People's Republic of China. It has literally never been a part of the PRC.
No it's not. Taiwan continues to operate as an independent liberal Democracy. The ball is in Beijing's court if they wish to attempt to change that.
Yes, it is taiwan, whose official name is the Republic of China. Check the "passport." If the government wants to change that, then go right ahead and see what happens.
Until then, China has no desire to change anything unfortunately. I think this is a bad policy because it allows countries like the US to manipulate China through the taiwan issue.
So why don't you ask Tsai to invite a high ranking US government official or even the George Washington carrier to visit taiwan and see what happens. Personally I think China needs to be forced into a corner to finally resolve the taiwan issue. It's really up to taiwan to force China to resolve the issue. Otherwise taiwan is in this limbo grey zone where it's not really part of the PRC and China is constantly fighting to maintain this ridiculous "One China" thing.
And that therein lies the fate of Modern China. Chiang Kai Shek was seen as weak in the eyes of the Chinese people for not immediately confronting the Japanese when they steadily ate up Manchuria and set up Manchukuo. That fateful decision of Chiang eroded his political base and was one reason that led to his ultimate demise on the Mainland in 1949. Xi Jin Ping is outright determined not to repeat Chiang's mistake again for better or worse. Like Chiang, Xi sees himself as synonymous with the fate of China the nation and has come too far from backing away. I don't think Tsai Ing Wen is that foolish to challenge Xi but we shall see.
Still, one has to wonder if Xi thought over the outcome of a devastating war. Taiwan the island itself is not just some barren rock, it has many beneficial resources. Bombing it back to the Stone Age is not the smartest thing to do. After all, wouldn't Beijing have to pay to completely rebuild it? War is not cheap and even though the People's Republic has plenty more military resources to crush and defeat lesser enemies than it did in the past, I sincerely doubt it can do so and suffer no more than just a scratch of its skin. War is not like that, even highly militarized nations like the U.S., Israel, the Soviet Union, etc. have suffered greatly in war. I see war as very unpredictable and it often does not start the way you'd think it would and it often does not turn out in the most expected outcome either. When and how did the Syrian civil war start and how long has it lasted now? (I lost count myself.) Who would ever have thought Vietnam would invade Cambodia and topple Pol Pot, a fellow communist in 1979 or that the U.S. went from shunning Pol Pot to supporting his regime in the following decade?
I understand your reasoning that the Chinese people on the Mainland are more united than ever and will fully support Beijing in safeguarding all Chinese territory. The concern is that a great many Chinese have not seen war before. Their sentiment may cry for unity at all costs but they have a lot to lose in a war. Most Chinese families have only one child for instance. If for any reason that child is killed in battle, they lost all they had, that is it, there is no more. This generation has not had to ration food, witness shell shock, wander hundreds of miles from home, or dive into bomb shelters for safety. This generation is a lot less prepared and has a lot more to lose than previous Chinese generations. To me, this sentiment is similar to the sentiment of the Europeans on the eve of World War I. It is a very nationalistic sentiment for sure. The author C.S. Lewis (the Chronicles of Narnia) himself said that Great Britain had to stop so called "Teutonic Imperialism" (i.e. German Imperialism) at all costs and he gladly volunteered his services to help. He and all others thought it was an easy task that would be quickly accomplished by the way. By war's end, Lewis was so disillusioned that he and many other Britons didn't care for nationalistic glory anymore. See where that got them.
The war over taiwan would end in a few days if there were no foreign interference. If the japanese interfere, China can take care of that easy enough. The US will have to be held back by nukes, so if the US thinks the Chinese aspiration for territorial integrity is worth screwing with at the expense of a nuke exchange then so be it. Short of that, why do you think China will have to fight the kind of dirty attrition war like WWI? Aside from the US who would have the power or will or resourses to intervene/interfere? It's an internal Chinese problem.
Yes there will be economic cost and hence I am pretty sure the Chinese wont start the war. But if, like the OP notes, the US sends a military ship for a port visit to taiwan, or if a US vice president visits taiwan, then all bets are off. So, it wont be the Chinese who start the war, it will either be the taiwanese, or the Americans or both. China will simply be responding to a red line crossed.
Taiwan is not "Chinese Territory" if you are referring to the People's Republic of China. It has literally never been a part of the PRC.
Yes, but taiwan has been a part of the Chinese empire/state/republic since the beginning of the Qing. The PRC is the current inheritor of that long ethnic-cultural and political legacy and so hence taiwan is part of China. Taiwan's official name is the Republic of China, so there you go.
The PRC is fine for taiwan to remain the ROC, so long as other nations adhere to the "One China" policy. But if a military ship from a nation, especially the US, enters taiwanese port, then the US will have stepped over the line drawn by the Shanghai Communique which recognizes taiwan as part of China. In that case, China is no longer obligated to try to resolve the taiwan issue peacefully.
Taiwan would allow US military bases. Without Taiwan, first island chain around China is lost; Japan & SK mideast oil sea route can be cut off by China using Taiwan and their lifelines are lost (and possible loss of western pacific). China would use force on Taiwan with a perfect excuse.
Short of that, why do you think China will have to fight the kind of dirty attrition war like WWI? Aside from the US who would have the power or will or resourses to intervene/interfere? It's an internal Chinese problem.
I am not saying that China will have to fight a war of attrition but am saying that there is the probability that it might. The People's Liberation Army is well armed, well trained, and immensely powerful on paper but it has not engaged in atctual combat with another nation for many years. Are you that confident that the PLA can pull off an invasion without any sort of embarrassment? (Frankly I don't think the US Army is well prepared which is why I sincerely hope the US does not get involved).
It is worth noting that China's neighbor to the north, Russia, at one time had an even more powerful military than China, previously as the Soviet Union and then as itself, and yet it failed to conquer Afghanistan, failed the first time to subjugate Chechnya (had more success the second time but only after leveling Grozny), and right now has not conquered the Donetsk and Luhansk Provinces of Ukraine despite spending an awful lot of men and arms. This was all due to poor planning, logistics, and that false feeling of invincibility that comes with being a hegemon. But yes, the issue of Taiwan is so sensitive to China that it will do anything and everything to take it back even if it costs many lives and much money.
Chinese Taipei is an independent country in China's sphere of influence. That is all. The longer it is separated, the longer the people grow apart. China cannot invade Taiwan successfully. It can only damage it, which there is no guarantee the world would stand by and allow it.
I am not saying that China will have to fight a war of attrition but am saying that there is the probability that it might. The People's Liberation Army is well armed, well trained, and immensely powerful on paper but it has not engaged in atctual combat with another nation for many years. Are you that confident that the PLA can pull off an invasion without any sort of embarrassment? (Frankly I don't think the US Army is well prepared which is why I sincerely hope the US does not get involved).
It is worth noting that China's neighbor to the north, Russia, at one time had an even more powerful military than China, previously as the Soviet Union and then as itself, and yet it failed to conquer Afghanistan, failed the first time to subjugate Chechnya (had more success the second time but only after leveling Grozny), and right now has not conquered the Donetsk and Luhansk Provinces of Ukraine despite spending an awful lot of men and arms. This was all due to poor planning, logistics, and that false feeling of invincibility that comes with being a hegemon. But yes, the issue of Taiwan is so sensitive to China that it will do anything and everything to take it back even if it costs many lives and much money.
Well, so don't you think the chance to unify by force, which is looking like the ONLY option, is as good as any for the PLA to get some experience? Sure it lacks experience, but where to start? Practice on the viets, or the filipinos? What? Taiwan is as good a practice as any.
I am amused by folks who are anti-China who on the one hand berate China for being militarily aggressive, and then on the other hand point to China's military inexperience. Which is it folks? why is China so militarily inexperienced? Is it because it is indeed unlike some other country who is in perpetual never ending war (the US)? And, if inexperience is the problem, don't you think the Chinese should remedy the problem? If so, how? which little country should China use to gain experience?
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