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There's an article in the Economist about hand-wringing in China over the delayed release of the decennial census. Rumors are that the population has begun to shrink much earlier than expected, and officials don't know how to reveal this.
There's no surprise that China's population would shrink. That was the plan since the one-child policy was created. Rather the surprise is how soon this has happened.
Doesn't surprise me all that much, honestly. There is an almost total lack of interest in having children for most of the young Chinese people I've met, not just in the big cities but in the suburban areas. My wife was the last person on both sides of her family to date to have a child before 30, five years ago, and no babies on deck. Have a conversation with any Chinese person in their 20's about having a family and it's almost always a discussion of how stressful, expensive, and generally insurmountable it is.
I imagine that if this is indeed the case, the government will want to try to soften that news with policy changes to instill a feeling of hope or progress - totally scrapping family planning laws, retiring the hukou system or at least making it restrictive, overhauling the school entrance protocols in major cities where it's a huge problem, etc.
This doesn't address the issues of cost of renting/purchasing property in major cities or the cost of the extracurricular classes and programs that are seen as a necessity here. Without disrupting a multibillion yuan industry, there's not a whole lot the government can do.
Doesn't surprise me all that much, honestly. There is an almost total lack of interest in having children for most of the young Chinese people I've met, not just in the big cities but in the suburban areas. My wife was the last person on both sides of her family to date to have a child before 30, five years ago, and no babies on deck. Have a conversation with any Chinese person in their 20's about having a family and it's almost always a discussion of how stressful, expensive, and generally insurmountable it is.
I think this depends on who you around. Among my wifes friends, around 75% of them have kids, which is significantly more than my friends in Norway where hardly anyone has kids. And yes, Norways birth rate is dropping.
But I can confirm that Chinese think it is quite stressful, expensive and insurmountable. A lot of this has to do with them and especially the grandparents overworrying about things that doesn't matter such as "have to get top grades" and "wind will make them sick . The medical education level in China is very poor, and a lot of people believe in myths that restrict their life.
Foreigners often get frustrated when they have to deal with doctors and other people who strongly believe something is bad and is refusing to give what we need, but it is much worse for the people who actually believe in the nonsense and have to keep worrying about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 415_s2k
I imagine that if this is indeed the case, the government will want to try to soften that news with policy changes to instill a feeling of hope or progress - totally scrapping family planning laws, retiring the hukou system or at least making it restrictive, overhauling the school entrance protocols in major cities where it's a huge problem, etc.
I think you are overstating the importance of this release. The average Chinese person do not care much if the population is increasing or decreasing.
It will eventually be released and there will be some articles about it. Then we will forget about it, just like we forgot about the population decrease in Taiwan and South Korea. Then some time later, China will announce some pilot program to increase the birth rate in the northeast region.
It will eventually be released and there will be some articles about it. Then we will forget about it, just like we forgot about the population decrease in Taiwan and South Korea.
The difference is that Taiwan and South Korea are developed countries with >30k nominal GDP per capita, >50k PPP per capita, and >200k per capita net worth.
China's GDP per capita on the other hand is on Latin America's level. Amongst developing countries China's birth rate is easily the lowest of low and it's not reversible. When Taiwan and Korea were on that level the birth rate was a lot higher.
But of course you would choose to ignore this piece of information because you are an embarrassing puppet foreigner.
The difference is that Taiwan and South Korea are developed countries with >30k nominal GDP per capita, >50k PPP per capita, and >200k per capita net worth.
China's GDP per capita on the other hand is on Latin America's level. Amongst developing countries China's birth rate is easily the lowest of low and it's not reversible. When Taiwan and Korea were on that level the birth rate was a lot higher.
But of course you would choose to ignore this piece of information because you are an embarrassing puppet foreigner.
You don't seem to understand basic economics. Having a low birth rate is worse for developed countries.
Developing countries have a much lower productivity level, because a lot of people don't have very useful jobs. Population reduction will lead to less competition for jobs and higher wages, which will lead to companies becoming more efficient with their labour. In developed countries, productivity is already high and many companies are not able to become more efficient.
Take a look at eastern europe and you will see this effect in action. They have seen a drastic increase in labour force participitation rate and has had high growth. They have done much better than the poor countries in Europe who has not seen population reduction.
And China is overpopulated, population reduction will help bring property prices down, reduce the amount of pollution and let farmers have more land.
You don't seem to understand basic economics. Having a low birth rate is worse for developed countries.
Developing countries have a much lower productivity level, because a lot of people don't have very useful jobs. Population reduction will lead to less competition for jobs and higher wages, which will lead to companies becoming more efficient with their labour. In developed countries, productivity is already high and many companies are not able to become more efficient.
Take a look at eastern europe and you will see this effect in action. They have seen a drastic increase in labour force participitation rate and has had high growth. They have done much better than the poor countries in Europe who has not seen population reduction.
And China is overpopulated, population reduction will help bring property prices down, reduce the amount of pollution and let farmers have more land.
Zzzzz more nonsense quibbles. Only a puppet foreigner like you would attempt to argue that having a low birth rate is good for China.
And China's labour participation rate is very high. There's no room for drastic increase.
Last edited by Greysholic; 04-29-2021 at 04:56 AM..
It is funny how you accuse me of ignoring your argument, and then choose to ignore all information that debunk your theory.
Eastern Europe consist of many developing countries that have seen a massive population drop. According to your theory, their economy should have collapsed, but in reality they have seen high growth. How do you explain that?
You don't seem to understand basic economics. Having a low birth rate is worse for developed countries.
Developing countries have a much lower productivity level, because a lot of people don't have very useful jobs. Population reduction will lead to less competition for jobs and higher wages, which will lead to companies becoming more efficient with their labour. In developed countries, productivity is already high and many companies are not able to become more efficient.
Take a look at eastern europe and you will see this effect in action. They have seen a drastic increase in labour force participitation rate and has had high growth. They have done much better than the poor countries in Europe who has not seen population reduction.
And China is overpopulated, population reduction will help bring property prices down, reduce the amount of pollution and let farmers have more land.
Ah, okay, so this is actually a great thing for China... A leaner, meaner, more efficient, stronger nation.
Eastern Europe consist of many developing countries that have seen a massive population drop. According to your theory, their economy should have collapsed, but in reality they have seen high growth. How do you explain that?
Because of the massive investment and subsidies from the EU, aka Western Europe. EE countries that have not joined the EU are just as hopeless and poor as ever (e.g. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Serbia etc.). Everyone knows that.
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