Real estate in S. Forsyth, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, and Suwanee (Atlanta: real estate market, foreclosures)

[mrpanda]

I saw a post stating that there is no quick recovery in metro Atlanta. What i realize about Atlanta's real estate market is that is 90% of metro Atlanta can be in a down market where there is pocket of zip codes that are stabilizing. The areas I am most interested in are S. Forsyth, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, and Suwanee. There were roughly around 2000 transactions YTD in 2011 and I was suprised to see that Alpharetta made up around 1094 of these transactions which is roughly half.

I will first analyze the highend country club homes as I am curious myself which of the country club communities are the most sought after looking at how many transactions occurred this year.

1. St. Marlo Country Club - S. Forsyth
2. Laurel Springs - S. Forsyth
3. Sugarloaf Country Club - Duluth
4. The River Club - Suwanee
5. St. Ives Country Club - Johns Creek
6. Country Club of the South - Johns Creek

[mrpanda]

St. Ives Country Club

in 2011 there were 22 transactions in St. Ives Country Club. Average year homes were built 1995. Among the homes sold in 2011, the median home price is $540,000 and the average is $616,486.36. On average homes were bought 10% less than the listing price.

Sugarloaf Country Club

in 2011 there were 47 transactions in Sugarloaf Country Club. Average year homes were built 2002. Among the homes sold in 2011, the median home price is $800,000 and the average is $855,973. On average homes were bought 10% less than the listing price.

Laurel Springs

in 2011 there were 29 transactions in Laurel Springs. Average year homes were built 1999. Among the homes sold in 2011, the median home price is $815,000 and the average is $926,772. On average homes were bought 8% less than the listing price.

St Marlo Country Club

in 2011 there were 49 transactions in St Marlo Country Club. Average year homes were built 2002. Among the homes sold in 2011, the median home price is $650,000 and the average is $682,129. On average homes were bought 5.7% less than the listing price.

The River Club

in 2011 there were 9 transactions in The River Club. Average year homes were built 2006. Among the homes sold in 2011, the median home price is $1,164,000 and the average is $1,141,111. On average homes were bought 10.1% less than the listing price.

Country Club of the South

in 2011 there were 29 transactions in The River Club. Average year homes were built 1993. Among the homes sold in 2011, the median home price is $1,164,000 and the average is $1,141,111. On average homes were bought 10.1% less than the listing price.

[lorilove]

You are correct that there are pockets in Atlanta that are doing fine. I was out for a run this morning and was amazed how much new home construction or expansion was going on in a certain 2 mile stretch. This was in Buckhead not North Fulton but in this one area there was absolutely no sign of a depressed economy.

[mrpanda]

St Marlo and Sugarloaf have the highest purchases, whereas The River Club has the least amount of purchases. The Riverclub has the highest median home price among all of the country club homes in the northside.

Sugarloaf has a higher median home price than St. Marlo does but homes in Sugarloaf are purchased at steeper discount than St. Marlo. This is reason why I think Sugarloaf has 47 transactions this year.

Case in point. 2648 Bonar Hall Path in Sugarloaf Country Club was bought in cash for $1.7 million dollars on Dec 16th, 2005. Recent appraisal value is around $1.1 million. That is a 35% hair cut from the orginial purchase price. I think this is the absolute bottom in home prices in Sugarloaf Country Club.

[nrgpill]

1.2 mil in Manhattan will get you what? Maybe a studio with no view? If anything the cost difference between coastal cities and Atlanta will encourage migration towards the south but I have my questions about these "clubs" aging well. I really don't see any architectural significance and/or uniqueness but I guess that is the tradeoff you make w/ having an acre lot.

[ATLTJL]

Someone I know who is familiar with Sugarloaf and St. Ives country clubs told me this:

Sugarloaf is more for new money. You will find more athletes, musicians, and real housewives of Atlanta there, which is why foreclosures are high. People get money, then lose money, and have to leave.

St. Ives is for old established money. People who live there buy very nice, but reasonable homes. They have wealth and know how to manage that wealth, so they are not as affected by downswings in the economy. Houses not as flashy, but more prestigious.

Personally, I know absolutely nothing about either of these places, haven't even been to either one. I'd be curious to know if the above assessment is correct or not.

I have been to St. Marlo and thought it was a very classy mix of homes, seemed to appeal to people of high taste.

[livinginbuffalo]

Mr. P,

With all due respect, I gotta believe your Laurel Springs numbers are way off. Nothing has sold above $705K this year and median home price I would estimate is high 5's or low $6's.

[FromGA]

Originally Posted by nrgpill

1.2 mil in Manhattan will get you what? Maybe a studio with no view? If anything the cost difference between coastal cities and Atlanta will encourage migration towards the south but I have my questions about these "clubs" aging well. I really don't see any architectural significance and/or uniqueness but I guess that is the tradeoff you make w/ having an acre lot.

What an odd comparison of Manhattan with suburban Atlanta.

1.2 mil will get a nice house in southern CT.

(sorry to go outside scope of this thread. but it did not seem like a reasonable comparison)

[nrgpill]

You may not think so but look at it from Northerner's perspective. Tomorrow one can sell his 1 bedroom manhattan apt and land in one of these "clubs" down here, and have enough money to put down on a zaxby's franchise. The comparison is very valid to those looking to do something similar, and there are many. I just feel the past yr's transactions at these places are attributable to migratory pattern more so than people realize. To them the value is still there even if they pay closer to the asking price.

Originally Posted by FromGA

What an odd comparison of Manhattan with suburban Atlanta.

1.2 mil will get a nice house in southern CT.

(sorry to go outside scope of this thread. but it did not seem like a reasonable comparison)

[mrpanda]

Buffalo,

Thanks for noticing the error. I was updating and editing at the same time and accidently put the data for Country Club of the South for Laurel Springs. Here is the correct data below:

Laurel Springs

in 2011 there were 29 transactions in Laurel Springs. Average year homes were built 1999. Among the homes sold in 2011, the median home price is $530,000 and the average is $530,638. On average homes were bought 3.6% less than the listing price.

Highest Closing price in 2011: $705,000
Lowest Closing price in 2011: $310,000

Originally Posted by livinginbuffalo

Mr. P,

With all due respect, I gotta believe your Laurel Springs numbers are way off. Nothing has sold above $705K this year and median home price I would estimate is high 5's or low $6's.