will austin ever get a pro football team? (San Antonio, Columbus: colleges, bars)

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by scm53

Pipe dream. Austin is so far down the NFL expansion list as to not even be on it. LA and London will be first, and LV and San Antonio are light years ahead after those two glamour destinations. Bigger metros, and most important - bigger TV markets. And once one is in SA, forget it here.

Pure fantasy land.

^^^Pretty much the prevailing wisdom among typical Austinites.

But, I happen to disagree. Note, I'm not particularly in favor of an NFL team coming to Austin -- I could care less if it does -- but I do believe it is an inevitability. Not sure when, but I imagine it's sooner than most people would think.

[verybadgnome]

Now that I'm thinking about this I doubt it would happen within Austin city limits for financial and environmental reasons, which begs the question which suburban city would pony up money for this? If anyone would I think it would be Round Rock with their focus on sports and recreation.

[Trainwreck20]

Odd as it seems, I think RR would have a better chance than Austin. The down side, though, would be that I THINK someone thinking about an NFL team would want it on the South side of Austin to collect SA fans; however, the completely local fans would most likely be from CP/RR area.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by atxcio

^^^Pretty much the prevailing wisdom among typical Austinites.

Pretty much the prevailing wisdom among those paid to follow NFL expansion.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by scm53

Pretty much the prevailing wisdom among those paid to follow NFL expansion.

Yeah, and there was no way we'd be getting a TATL flight anytime soon. Not with major hubs like DFW and IAH, there isn't enough traffic, etc, etc. Experts and locals agreed.

But I've learned truth is stranger than fiction in this town right now, so I'll go ahead and stick with my prediction.

We will see.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by atxcio

Yeah, and there was no way we'd be getting a TATL flight anytime soon. Not with major hubs like DFW and IAH, there isn't enough traffic, etc, etc. Experts and locals agreed.

Austin to London, Nonstop: How the Dreamliner Made it Happen

When Boeing (BA) began shopping its new 787 Dreamliner to potential customers a decade ago, it quickly became clear to airline executives that the jet’s lower operating economics would allow for all sorts of new routes that existing planes couldn’t fly cost effectively. With its combination of long-haul range and modest seat capacity—not too big, not too small—the 787 could connect far-flung destinations that had traditionally required a stop in a hub.

Had nothing to do with any lack of prescience, inside or outside the city limits. There isn't any 787 equivalent disruptive technology on the horizon when it comes to NFL franchises. When one becomes available, that like the LHR-AUS BA flight, requires ZERO additional tax supported infrastructure, then maybe. Not holding my breath.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by scm53

Had nothing to do with any lack of prescience, inside or outside the city limits. There isn't any 787 equivalent disruptive technology on the horizon when it comes to NFL franchises. When one becomes available, that like the LHR-AUS BA flight, requires ZERO additional tax supported infrastructure, then maybe. Not holding my breath.

Weren't you in particular the person saying that there was no way Austin gets TATL service in the foreseeable future?

Yes, here we go. It's pretty funny in retrospect. Of course this was back in 2012, when no one had heard of the 787

Originally Posted by scm53

International airline traffic is made up of two parts - connecting traffic, and "originating and destinating" (O&D) traffic. The first part is why you have hub operations - AA at DFW and ORD, now United at IAH, Delta at ATL and DTW. They collect feed from their entire network onto their international flights. The second, O&D, would be the sole source of traffic from Austin. None of the mainline carriers will feed here, as they have their own hubs to protect. Even with SW's new focus on international business out of HOU, they won't compete with themselves by operating international flights out of here.

That's why there are almost no international flights to and from the US that don't operate in conjunction with a hub - either the airline's own or one of their alliance partners. BA does have a fairly extensive offering of flights to non hub US destinations - but they are almost all to locations with heavy UK holiday travel - mainly California and Florida.

No US carrier, especially not United or AA, is going to jeopardize their own hubs to start AUS-Europe service. Wouldn't expect a European carrier either, as e numbers just don't work.

and

Originally Posted by scm53

All of the non-Star Alliance flights, including Emirates, into IAH are driven by the oil field traffic, both pax, but especially cargo, in and out of Houston. Nothing approaching that here.

The DFW-London flights are operated by two airlines that are flying with their hub on one end, and an alliance partner's hub on the other. Won't happen here.

and

Originally Posted by scm53

So you are actually comparing ATL - 92 million enplanements, DEN - 58 million, BOS - 28 million (all hub cities) with AUS - 9 million. That is the number that matters, and the reason why it will be an exceedingly long time before there are TATL flights from here.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by atxcio

Weren't you in particular the person saying that there was no way Austin gets TATL service in the foreseeable future?

Nice hack job, Mr. Goebbels. Funny you didn't bold this part:

Originally Posted by scm53

BA does have a fairly extensive offering of flights to non hub US destinations

So no, I never said there wasn't going to be TATL service - I said that it wasn't going to be a US carrier as no one had a hub here to feed it, or a middle Eastern carrier due to the lack of oil related traffic. BA feeds traffic here from their single hub at the world's busiest airport, on the only a/c that can make it work.

Still is an apples to oranges comparison. When you figure out a way for an NFL team to play here without taxpayer dollars, get back to us. Or, you can continue to divert attention away from the fact you can't answer that question.

[verybadgnome]

Originally Posted by scm53

Nice hack job, Mr. Goebbels. Funny you didn't bold this part:



So no, I never said there wasn't going to be TATL service - I said that it wasn't going to be a US carrier as no one had a hub here to feed it, or a middle Eastern carrier due to the lack of oil related traffic. BA feeds traffic here from their single hub at the world's busiest airport, on the only a/c that can make it work.

Still is an apples to oranges comparison. When you figure out a way for an NFL team to play here without taxpayer dollars, get back to us. Or, you can continue to divert attention away from the fact you can't answer that question.

Sorry but atxico nabbed you with that last quote. And he is right also it is best not to underestimate how fast things can change in this town. I never saw F1 coming, e.g., and it took awhile for it to really sink in.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by scm53

So no, I never said there wasn't going to be TATL service - I said that it wasn't going to be a US carrier as no one had a hub here to feed it, or a middle Eastern carrier due to the lack of oil related traffic. BA feeds traffic here from their single hub at the world's busiest airport, on the only a/c that can make it work.

You do realize you are arguing with yourself here? I did nothing but quote your posts. You can try to re-qualify your statements, but it's pretty clear you were assuring everyone that there is no way it would happen in the foreseeable future. And I can't blame you for that, it was again the prevailing wisdom at the time. But then it happened.

Now, I think there is a lesson or two here for you -

1) Never say never, Austin has batted above it's level before

2) Might be a good idea for you to resist the temptation to post on every thread as though you are some sort of authority on the matter. It's classless and despite what you may think, it does not make you look more intelligent.

It's your choice which lesson to take.

Meantime, I'll stick with my (unpopular and unbelievable) prediction. NFL does come to Austin eventually. Remember this is just an internet forum, we are speculating for fun, and none of us are true experts on this subject.