City council Candidates (Austin, Shady Hollow, Early: 2013, city hall, neighborhoods)

[Uberguber]

Very Early Returns: Calling All Council Candidates! The mayoral and council election season has already started - News - The Austin Chronicle

The candidates are starting to materialize for the new 10-1 council. Any shoe-ins, dark horses or other observations are welcome. I will say that I am chagrined to find there is no conservative candidate so far in District 5.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

Central Austin may end up hanging on to a seat unless a challenger emerges from Shady Hollow, Onion Creek or Sunset Valley.

It will be very difficult for a challenger to emerge from Shady Hollow as it isn't in the city.

[Uberguber]

I deleted. What would you call that far SW/Bauerle Ranch/Bear Creek area then? It pretty much wraps around Shady Hollow.

[ImOnFiya]

District 5 contains the very left-leaning politically active neighborhoods of Zilker, Bouldin, and Southwood. Any candidate that wins those neighborhoods will probably win the district.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by ImOnFiya

District 5 contains the very left-leaning politically active neighborhoods of Zilker, Bouldin, and Southwood. Any candidate that wins those neighborhoods will probably win the district.

Wishful thinking?

Those precincts have about 25% of the registered voters in District 5. The smart bet will be to unite the 75% south of Ben White and win the turnout battle. There are huge demographic shifts once you cross Ben White that a smart candidate can easily exploit.

[ImOnFiya]

Originally Posted by scm53

Wishful thinking?

Those precincts have about 25% of the registered voters in District 5. The smart bet will be to unite the 75% south of Ben White and win the turnout battle. There are huge demographic shifts once you cross Ben White that a smart candidate can easily exploit.

If a such a candidate can get those neighborhoods (mostly below William Cannon Dr) to vote in sufficient numbers to offset the 'outsized' influence those neighborhoods might bring. Already a well-known quantity around City Hall and central Austin, Zilker's Jeff Jack who is a member of the Planning Commission and Chairman of Austin's Board of Adjustment is strongly considering throwing his hat in the ring.

Jack would be a candidate who could unite those neighborhoods and hit the ground running quickly to the south end. In looking at the district, it's clear the battle for supremacy between the liberal north end and mostly moderate/conservative south will take place in the southern part of District 5.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by ImOnFiya

If a such a candidate can get those neighborhoods mostly below William Cannon Dr to vote in sufficient numbers to offset the 'outsized' influence those neighborhoods might bring.

They can bring all the "outsized' influence" they want - still out numbered 3-1. And the split is at Ben White, not William Cannon. Once you cross it, those ranch style neighborhoods have NOTHING in common with the granola gentry in Barton Hills and Zilker. The smart candidate will exploit it - make it an "us vs. them" race.

[ImOnFiya]

Originally Posted by scm53

They can bring all the "outsized' influence" they want - still out numbered 3-1. And the split is at Ben White, not William Cannon. Once you cross it, those ranch style neighborhoods have NOTHING in common with the granola gentry in Barton Hills and Zilker. The smart candidate will exploit it - make it an "us vs. them" race.

You are assuming that the south end is monolithic and the voting rates will be equal throughout the district. Past voting rates in Austin city elections haven't borne that out. The increasingly wealthier central-city south neighborhoods have had higher voting influence with City Council and AISD.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by ImOnFiya

You are assuming that the south end is monolithic and the voting rates will be equal throughout the district. Past voting rates in Austin city elections haven't borne that out. The increasingly wealthier central-city south neighborhoods have had higher voting influence with City Council and AISD.

And you are assuming November district elections will have the same turnout as May elections when no one south of the river was ever going to get elected. BIG mistake.

We will see who is right.

[ImOnFiya]

Originally Posted by scm53

And you are assuming November district elections will have the same turnout as May elections when no one south of the river was ever going to get elected. BIG mistake.

We will see who is right.

Let's note that the entirety of District 5 is south of the river. However, we will see who actually gets in the race and wins.