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PEVs will not drop in price like plasma TVs. Nor improve in capacity/power/efficiency like computers do. The rate of improvement in batteries is painfully slow. We still don't have a laptop that can run all day on a charge nor a phone that can run a week.
No doubt for some people today's PEVs can meet their needs for 95% of their driving.
I agree that fast charging batteries seem like a better answer than replacing some yet-to-be built standardized battery.
The one thing that is true now is that PEVs could work right now for vastly more people than can be built for. 66% of households have 2 or more cars now. That means that most of them could replace one car with an EV and have their needs met. There are 200 million registered cars and trucks in the US. if we wanted to completely replace even a third of them, at present production rates, it would take all manufacturers making ALL EVs for 30 years to do.
30 years is a long time in the tech world. I'd bet that by the time EVs become a strain on the grid, OR ubiquitous enough to warant a battery swap system, we'll have a smart grid and fast charge batteries/capacitors that last a long time and charging stations all over the country. Think how long it took to get the gasoline station infrastructure in place! It will take way less time to get the EV infrastructure in place.
The one thing that is true now is that PEVs could work right now for vastly more people than can be built for. 66% of households have 2 or more cars now. That means that most of them could replace one car with an EV and have their needs met. There are 200 million registered cars and trucks in the US. if we wanted to completely replace even a third of them, at present production rates, it would take all manufacturers making ALL EVs for 30 years to do.
30 years is a long time in the tech world. I'd bet that by the time EVs become a strain on the grid, OR ubiquitous enough to warant a battery swap system, we'll have a smart grid and fast charge batteries/capacitors that last a long time and charging stations all over the country. Think how long it took to get the gasoline station infrastructure in place! It will take way less time to get the EV infrastructure in place.
I don't think ANY otherwise good vehicles should be replaced with a new one, whether PEV or other. There is an economic and environmental cost to replacing vehicles - a huge amount of "stuff" that has to be recycled or disposed of. Replacement should occur on the natural cycle, which also allows infrastructure to grow over time to support PEVs. One thing that must occur is that people need to pay for the electricity to recharge their cars. No way should a city or government make that free.
I don't think ANY otherwise good vehicles should be replaced with a new one, whether PEV or other. There is an economic and environmental cost to replacing vehicles - a huge amount of "stuff" that has to be recycled or disposed of. Replacement should occur on the natural cycle, which also allows infrastructure to grow over time to support PEVs. One thing that must occur is that people need to pay for the electricity to recharge their cars. No way should a city or government make that free.
And what will the market be for replacing your car? If everyone starts switching over is the gov't going to buy your old car?
And what will the market be for replacing your car? If everyone starts switching over is the gov't going to buy your old car?
Perhaps you misunderstand me. I don't advocate any unscheduled or early replacement of vehicles. And the government has no role at all. When someone decides "it is time" to replace a car, that's when it should be replaced. No sooner.
I keep vehicles a long time. They are all paid off, and even if I want better fuel economy, as long as these vehicles run well and keep me satisfied, I'm not going to replace them because I know it will be more costly to do so.
I don't think ANY otherwise good vehicles should be replaced with a new one, whether PEV or other. There is an economic and environmental cost to replacing vehicles - a huge amount of "stuff" that has to be recycled or disposed of. Replacement should occur on the natural cycle, which also allows infrastructure to grow over time to support PEVs. One thing that must occur is that people need to pay for the electricity to recharge their cars. No way should a city or government make that free.
?
No one is saying that we should replace the cars in the fleet or that the government should pay for electricity. I'm saying that on a normal cycle of people replacing their cars, it would take 30 years for even half of the cars curently in use to be replaced. By anything. Even if demand was there to buy new EVs, manufacturers can't build enough to replace the current cars rapidly, even if they swithed their entire production runs to building EVs.
Perhaps you misunderstand me. I don't advocate any unscheduled or early replacement of vehicles. And the government has no role at all. When someone decides "it is time" to replace a car, that's when it should be replaced. No sooner.
I keep vehicles a long time. They are all paid off, and even if I want better fuel economy, as long as these vehicles run well and keep me satisfied, I'm not going to replace them because I know it will be more costly to do so.
What about when there is no reasonably priced gasoline to run them? What then? I moved to the West Coast almost four years ago and it was like going through a time machine. Every day I see daily driven examples of iconic makes that I hadn't seen in 30 years. The planet cannot wait until you decide to retire your 1969 Plymouth Valiant. That will be never as long as the decision is left up to you. At some point it won't be a choice.
One thing that must occur is that people need to pay for the electricity to recharge their cars. No way should a city or government make that free.
Why not? Cuz you will be missing out on the good deal? Be at peace, the vast majority of EV drivers will charge at home with electricity that they pay residential rates for. Happier now? And, as I look around town, 50% of the charging stations are commercial enterprises charging ~1.00/hr. Don't know how much juice you get in an hour from one of those things but I suspect even though they are paying commercial rates for their juice, the consumer will be paying a lot more than even their already higher residential rate to top up at a commercial charging station. OTOH, giving away free electricity (horrors) to EV owners is what is known in the business as an incentive. It is a relatively new word in human history, but one that we will hear used a lot more as autocratic and totalitarian, command and control governments go offline the world over.
THere are free charging stations in front of the building I work in, but they are not paid for by the Government, they are paid for by GM. (Ok so that may be sort of the government, but not so much anymore)
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