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Old 12-16-2016, 02:38 PM
 
19,016 posts, read 27,579,284 times
Reputation: 20265

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Was reading Newsweek Aye Robot article

Of course, as much as you can trust Newsweek but...
We had so much discussion on autonomous vehicles, pretty much laughing at them.
Thing is, those in power do keep pushing them.


According to same company, in 15 years, truck drivers as profession will simply disappear, just like gas station attendants.

In the medium term (through 2040), on-highway trucks will likely be the first vehicles to feature the full technology on public roads. Prototypes already exist, and companies are currently developing the software algorithms needed to handle complex driving situations. Long-term automated commercial fleets might include vehicles for parcel delivery as well as automated drones, which multiple players are already field-testing.
Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive world | McKinsey & Company

What is quite realistic as Holland I believe already did successful AV truck testing. USPS is going to do rural deliveries with drones and Amazon already "emplyed" drones for deliveries (well, few years after Russia, actually).
So like it or not, it is coming. Ray Kurzveil, the guy that knows everything about future, says he "wants to be a robot". Sure, as entire cybernization and AI development has one goal - to provide "practical immortality" for the Elite, planning to have their consciousness transferred into digital devices.
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Old 12-16-2016, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Sylmar, a part of Los Angeles
8,342 posts, read 6,425,125 times
Reputation: 17457
Try 50 years not 15. They can't even get my Wi Fi to work for a week and a half.
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Old 12-16-2016, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Coastal Mid-Atlantic
6,735 posts, read 4,416,367 times
Reputation: 8371
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Was reading Newsweek Aye Robot article

Of course, as much as you can trust Newsweek but...
We had so much discussion on autonomous vehicles, pretty much laughing at them.
Thing is, those in power do keep pushing them.


According to same company, in 15 years, truck drivers as profession will simply disappear, just like gas station attendants.

In the medium term (through 2040), on-highway trucks will likely be the first vehicles to feature the full technology on public roads. Prototypes already exist, and companies are currently developing the software algorithms needed to handle complex driving situations. Long-term automated commercial fleets might include vehicles for parcel delivery as well as automated drones, which multiple players are already field-testing.
Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive world | McKinsey & Company

What is quite realistic as Holland I believe already did successful AV truck testing. USPS is going to do rural deliveries with drones and Amazon already "emplyed" drones for deliveries (well, few years after Russia, actually).
So like it or not, it is coming. Ray Kurzveil, the guy that knows everything about future, says he "wants to be a robot". Sure, as entire cybernization and AI development has one goal - to provide "practical immortality" for the Elite, planning to have their consciousness transferred into digital devices.

They're only as accurate and as safe, as in cameras kept clean, and if the sensors are working properly. Do they see well in the rain at night, in a snow storm, Or in a driving rain storm when visibility is near zero. Or how about a thick fog.
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Old 12-16-2016, 06:30 PM
 
1,995 posts, read 2,076,693 times
Reputation: 3512
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsthomas View Post
They're only as accurate and as safe, as in cameras kept clean, and if the sensors are working properly. Do they see well in the rain at night, in a snow storm, Or in a driving rain storm when visibility is near zero. Or how about a thick fog.
Forest fire was my concern, Or unexpected emergencies like a hurricane, tornado, floods, or earthquakes. Especially after a power outage.


We're really not that far off until you can speak;

"google/alexa/or any other name to call a robot, I want sushi/a steak dinner/a leather sectional/a new puppy/etc.... and your device relays directions for the business to your phone, your automatic chair then takes you to your vehicle and sits you in it. Your vehicle then self drives you to that business. You either use your own, or their automatic chairs (that will probably come pick you up at your vehicle once your table is ready), You eat/get your merchandise/whatever else.. Then your automatic chair rolls you back to your vehicle, you get in, drive home... and all you did was push one button on your phone to confirm before you left.



Where are these 50 minutes that AVs are going to free up??? That has to be based on a hypothetical scenario of nothing but AVs on the road. I'm not sure what country they are referring to, but here in Merica, I still hear people talking about the "south".. How many generations ago did "that end"?? I just can't imagine the U.S. giving up driving your own car within another generation or two.
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Old 12-16-2016, 07:43 PM
 
634 posts, read 1,165,207 times
Reputation: 1206
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
According to same company, in 15 years, truck drivers as profession will simply disappear, just like gas station attendants.
Yep, I'm related to an engineering VP of a major manufacturer and you can expect mass unemployment to hit commercial trucking and busing in 5~7 years. This is the holy grail of cost savings.
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Old 12-17-2016, 02:02 AM
 
17,303 posts, read 12,239,198 times
Reputation: 17250
Those in power aren't pushing anything. Innovative companies are just pushing out the tech and interested consumers are buying.

Automation is going to hit just about every industry and hard in most of our lifetimes. All the surplus humans will just have to become soylent green.
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Old 12-17-2016, 02:47 AM
 
1,650 posts, read 1,114,992 times
Reputation: 1666
There will the money jobs be when automation accelerates? Engineering? Robotics? Maintenance?
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Old 12-17-2016, 03:20 AM
 
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
10,930 posts, read 11,720,749 times
Reputation: 13170
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsthomas View Post
They're only as accurate and as safe, as in cameras kept clean, and if the sensors are working properly. Do they see well in the rain at night, in a snow storm, Or in a driving rain storm when visibility is near zero. Or how about a thick fog.
Amen!
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Old 12-17-2016, 05:27 AM
 
Location: Coastal Mid-Atlantic
6,735 posts, read 4,416,367 times
Reputation: 8371
As far as personal vehicles are concerned. We're so GD fat and lazy we cant even drive our own cars now. We have to have our faces planted into the cell phone screen. Drive, I dont have time to drive, I've got loads of texting to do, I dont have time to do that and be attentive and drive there. Just because something is possible, doesn't mean its necessary.
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Old 12-17-2016, 06:02 AM
 
34,278 posts, read 19,364,321 times
Reputation: 17261
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsthomas View Post
As far as personal vehicles are concerned. We're so GD fat and lazy we cant even drive our own cars now. We have to have our faces planted into the cell phone screen. Drive, I dont have time to drive, I've got loads of texting to do, I dont have time to do that and be attentive and drive there. Just because something is possible, doesn't mean its necessary.
Or....

I have code to look at, in fact I could start work during my commute. Id take public transportation if it didn't add more time to my commute. Its not lazy to want to be able to spend your time more productively.

Where to start with some of the other posts.....

No "those in power" are not pushing it. What complete nonsense. this is about capitalism.

No, its not for just the "elite". At first it will be, but at one time having a refrigerator was for the elite.

No its not going to take 50 years. Thats hilarious. And your wifi is probably a personal problem.

Quote:
Originally Posted by xsthomas View Post
They're only as accurate and as safe, as in cameras kept clean, and if the sensors are working properly. Do they see well in the rain at night, in a snow storm, Or in a driving rain storm when visibility is near zero. Or how about a thick fog.
OK now this deserves some conversation. The cameras don't have to be "kept clean" they just have to be cleanish. Software can handle them getting dirty, and theres a LOT more sensors being used then cameras-there's also lidar, radar, and ultrasonic sensors. They will be able to see better then us in all of the weather conditions you mention, however some methods used for it work better then others. Watch the stuff nvidia is doing for example. They have some self learning adaptive systems that WILL handle bad weather eventually. But I suspect we may be as long as 4 years away from the Nvidia software working as hoped. Don't know for sure though.

The other poster who mentioned forest fires, hurricane, floods, earthquakes, etc. Cool. I havent seen one of any of those personally in quite a while. One common factor in most of those is...you shouldn't drive through them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShiverMeTimber View Post
There will the money jobs be when automation accelerates? Engineering? Robotics? Maintenance?
Hard to know. And as other things keep advancing even those won't be safe. At some point actual AI will come out, and all of those jobs will suddenly become a lot less relevant.
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