Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
These are two things those fearful of EVs ALWAYS forget. They ALWAYS talk about the fear of 100% of EVs happening ALL AT ONCE with present day supply issues and how can the grid handle that? And that their ICE cars will be taken away ALL AT ONCE as well. Both are strawman fears, setting up impossible and unrealistic scenarios then wailing about them. I'm getting quite tired of that sort of willful ignorance.
As am I, but honestly, sometimes you just can't fix stupid.
1) Key materials required to make batteries are in short supply. There's not nearly enough of these materials to produce enough batteries to power EVs in numbers sufficient to replace ICE vehicles.
This is the only competent assessment for any real risk of why BEVs won't be 50% of new car sales in 2030.
There is an expected supply crunch in batteries in the mid decade, but that will be relieved by decade end.
Norway is already over 50% new vehicles are BEV.
Europe is at 8.6%, up double from a year ago. They will be 50% new vehicles are BEV around 2025.
The U.S. is of course further behind, but not even 5 years.
Battery tech will work great for 95% of truck drivers, you can bet your bottom dollar that businesses that rely on low cost of operation will be choosing electric pickups and electric semi trucks where the energy density is sufficient (i.e. most cases).
Anyone know how long EV buyers in California will get the advantage of longer battery warranties? This is something that has always seemed unfair to me, someone in CA gets a 10 year 150k mile warranty, while I have to settle for 8 years and 100k.
If the manufacturers are really confident in their products, they should expand that CA warranty to every state.
motors motors motors...its the rare earth that is in short supply (which is why it is rare) that we dont have a stream for. batteries (at current technology) we can deal with if the EPA relaxes regs in place to mine the lithium, its fairly toxic itself and its tailings and THAT never goes wrong... ;-)
This is the only competent assessment for any real risk of why BEVs won't be 50% of new car sales in 2030.
There is an expected supply crunch in batteries in the mid decade, but that will be relieved by decade end.
Norway is already over 50% new vehicles are BEV.
Europe is at 8.6%, up double from a year ago. They will be 50% new vehicles are BEV around 2025.
The U.S. is of course further behind, but not even 5 years.
Battery tech will work great for 95% of truck drivers, you can bet your bottom dollar that businesses that rely on low cost of operation will be choosing electric pickups and electric semi trucks where the energy density is sufficient (i.e. most cases).
It's just pretty obvious at this point.
Wake up folks.
um truck drivers like to fuel up in under 1/2 hour as it counts as hours on duty. batteries the size they would need, at current technologies are gonna take DAYS to refill even at a super charger. no one in their right mind is gonna hook up 200-400 amp cables during rest break...a different technology is gonna be needed and a LOT of infrastructure. truckers stop, when the line hits the end, not at home.
um truck drivers like to fuel up in under 1/2 hour as it counts as hours on duty. batteries the size they would need, at current technologies are gonna take DAYS to refill even at a super charger. no one in their right mind is gonna hook up 200-400 amp cables during rest break...a different technology is gonna be needed and a LOT of infrastructure. truckers stop, when the line hits the end, not at home.
Industrial sites will have no real trouble. They have high voltage and current service. Simply cut the bank into as many sections as needed and charge them in parallel.
The residential problem is very different due to the standard service on homes.
Industrial sites will have no real trouble. They have high voltage and current service. Simply cut the bank into as many sections as needed and charge them in parallel.
The residential problem is very different due to the standard service on homes.
ok my bad, I equated 'truck drivers' to guys in big semis. force of habit. old truckers never die, they just get a new peterbuilt
Tesla is piloting their new "megacharger" units for their semi truck - the first ones went into a Frito Lay factory in Modesto, California on May 25. No specs released yet, but the name suggests at least 1000kW charging rate. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-firs...plant-modesto/
These are two things those fearful of EVs ALWAYS forget. They ALWAYS talk about the fear of 100% of EVs happening ALL AT ONCE with present day supply issues and how can the grid handle that? And that their ICE cars will be taken away ALL AT ONCE as well. Both are strawman fears, setting up impossible and unrealistic scenarios then wailing about them. I'm getting quite tired of that sort of willful ignorance.
Your point is well taken. But if you look at the residential electric usage even a 25 year transition to all EVs is going to be quite a shock to the system
Kwh/day per account (~2.5 people per residential account) for April 2021
12.9 CA
15.2 RI
15.8 HI
16.2 NY
16.3 NJ
16.3 VT
16.5 MA
17.0 NM
17.4 NH
17.4 IL
17.6 DC
17.8 MI
18.3 CT
18.6 WI
19.0 AK
19.3 ME
19.7 UT
20.2 CO
20.8 KS
21.8 MN
22.0 PA
22.0 NV
22.6 IA
22.8 OH
22.9 VA
24.1 IN
24.2 MD
24.3 NE
24.6 OK
25.5 AR
25.9 DE
26.1 MO
26.3 TX
26.7 MT
26.8 WV
27.1 GA
27.1 OR
27.4 WY
27.4 AZ
27.6 KY
27.9 ID
28.0 SC
28.6 LA
28.6 NC
28.7 MS
28.7 AL
30.0 SD
30.3 ND
30.7 TN
31.1 WA
31.2 FL
That said, even if the electric supply in 25 years is 80% from natural gas, we would still be much better off without gasoline vehicles.
Present day 4 major fuels for electricity
40.5% natural gas
19.7% nuclear
19.1% coal
8.4% wind
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
