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What about the battery? Chances are the car won’t be worth what a new battery costs right?
Like the above poster said, it's no different than needing a new engine or a new tranny in an old ICE car. But the reality is deciding whether to rebuild/replace an engine or buy a new EV battery on how much that car is worth is the completely wrong way to evaluate that decision. What it would cost to replace is the smarter economic equation. But most people use that time as an excuse to get a new car because they're tired of the old one. Or more importantly, many people can afford $300-$500 a month to get a new car but can't afford $3000-$5000 at one pop for a major car repair.
Im glad I got a Bolt because it's a nice car to drive especially with regenerative braking one pedal driving. I agree with some of the problems people fear and the lack of electricity especally in stupid California. But as a early adopter I can enjoy it now and I'm so damn old in 10 years I won't care.
Im glad I got a Bolt because it's a nice car to drive especially with regenerative braking one pedal driving. I agree with some of the problems people fear and the lack of electricity especally in stupid California. But as a early adopter I can enjoy it now and I'm so damn old in 10 years I won't care.
I think a lot of people miss the drivability and practicality point when they focus on the edge cases.
I am so used to driving out EVs that going back to our ICE vehicle is a much less pleasant experience now. We are a two car household and we will keep a ICE vehicle for longer trips to the mountains, but that’s about the only miles it gets anymore.
Single pedal driving is so much better. The torque is so much better. Never going to a gas station is so much better. Never getting an oil change is so much better.
If you are talking about global sales of light duty vehicles in 2022 (81M), about 13% are a mix of BEV and PHEV (10.5M units sold, a fifth of that in China alone). The rest are ICE and Hybrids/Mild Hybrids because they don't count them in the plug-in category (for obvious reasons).
PHEV is falling as a % within its group (plug-in, which consists of BEV and PHEV), but non-plug in hybrids increased by 15%.
ICE are falling as well, but still constitute the largest portion (fell from 82% to 76%, yoy).
So, out of 81M units sold worldwide, about 70M are ICE and hybrid.
The question is whether a rise in BEV is due to the lack of hybrids, ICE and everything else, or increased adoption. https://www.ev-volumes.com/
I'm talking about plug-ins (BEVs and PHEVs) in June of the time I posted which is June 2023.
That should be pretty explicitly understood from where I wrote "About a fifth of global new vehicle sales in the *world* were plug-ins in June." It's odd then that you're not sure what I'm talking about and then list figures from 2022. I'm not sure how you found this ambiguous.
[Cracked Crystal Ball Flag On]
BEVs will NOT be the dominant transportation vehicle in 20 years.
WHY?
USA has approximately 147 million private automobiles using petroleum.
To do a 1:1 swap, would not be possible.
#1 : there is not enough lithium ion battery production.
#2 : there won't be "cheap & plentiful" lithium after the first swap.
Oh, wait, I forgot to include all other ICE vehicles.
IN THE USA, 290 million vehicles were registered in 2021. The figures include passenger cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses, and other vehicles.
A single EV has roughly 10 kilograms—or 22 pounds—of lithium in it. A ton of lithium metal is enough to build about 90 electric cars. Let's run with that in our example. (the lower value)
To build 290 million electric vehicles would require 2,895,000,000 kg (6.37 million lbs) of refined lithium.
2,895,000 tonnes (3,184,500 short tons)
Although the US has the world’s fourth-largest lithium reserves, measured at 6.8 million tonnes according to the US Geological Survey, production activity in the country is minimal.
OKAY, all we need to do is mine, refine 43% of all national lithium reserves, and build battery packs to replace the current stock of vehicles.
What will we do when we need to replace / swap batteries?
We can probably afford 1 swap, but 2?
> ouch <
#3 : Shifting to BEVs will be a large drain on the existing power grid. Unlike electric traction rail which has a 20:1 advantage over pneumatic tire on pavement, switching to electric power will drive up the price to "plug in". Already, commercial charging stations are veddy expensive. Imagine when folks "plug in" and rolling brown outs result. Oh my-y-y. Compound that with the probability that "renewables" will be promoted. Since wind and solar are intermittent and unreliable, BACKUP generation capacity will be needed (fossil fuels, anyone?). That doubling of production costs will hit us in the wallets. Let's say it "only" triples your monthly power bill. Can you dig it?
No, BEVs are not "worth it."
Currently they require taxpayer subsidies (rob one to bribe another).
They will cripple our power systems if operated in large numbers.
They don't have the range of an ICE, and any use of electrically powered accessories (AC/heater) reduces overall range.
HOWEVER, if the nation's governments stopped meddling (abolish all subsidies and penalties), common sense and eCONomics would support a widespread change to electric traction rail transportation, in all forms. For a fixed unit of fuel / energy, you can move 20 times as much by rail than what you can move by car, truck or bus.
Assume that 90% transitions to electric rail, and the remaining 10% is private automobiles, buses and trucks. At that reduced volume, there's no rush to ban the ICE, or switch to BEVs. Plus the reduced traffic will ease the wear and tear on roadways.
Almost near completely off on lithium scarcity. The proven reserve numbers are nigh meaningless given how quickly they've gone up in the last several years. Your swap after the first one is nonsense because use of lithium in batteries does not mean the lithium disappears after battery degradation. In fact, thus far it's mean that the same amount of lithium actually ends up being an even larger amount of effective energy capacity because continued battery energy density improvements have meant the same amount of raw battery materials a decade later yields substantially more energy capacity. On top of that, lithium-ion isn't even necessarily going to continue being the dominant chemistry for secondary cell batteries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts
In 20 years, there will still be tens of millions of ICE cars on the road, i.e. ICE cars sold over the next 10 years. The current U.S. government and several in Europe are trying to ban ICE car sales by 2030 or 2035, depending on the place. Japan, as well, and I think also China. But as you say, it would be cheaper and better to let the markets naturally evolve toward BEV instead of forcing it by government fiat.
It's possible and likely that the U.S. government will change either in '24 or in '28, and readjust toward a balanced energy policy of fossils and renewables. Killing fossils in '21 turned out to be a terrible mistake for various reasons.
PHEV's are almost as good as BEV's, minus the range problems, and are generally a lot cheaper. A 40-mile PHEV will be in electric mode almost all the time for city driving. Friends of mine with a Prius Prime say they never use gasoline, as long as they charge it up every night. But if they decide to drive to the boonies six hours to the north, it has the range and refueling flexibility.
I think PHEV's are the future, at least until BEV's achieve (1) longer range between charges, at least 1000 Km (600 miles), (2) the fire/explosion risk of Lithium Ion cells has been fixed, (3) the weight problem is addressed, and (4) it's easy to replace the batteries at a reasonable price.
You have no idea what you're talking about. You're so clueless that you most likely completely missed what jetgraphics was talking about. The market naturally evolving for jetgraphics would be to move virtually everything towards rail because of its efficiency. Are you *also* saying that we should move the vast majority of all road transport immediately over to electrified rail or did you just simply not even understand what you were agreeing to? Given your previous posts, my money's on that you didn't even know what you're agreeing about because you have so little clue about what's being discussed.
PHEVs are not almost as good as BEVs nor are they generally a lot cheaper. Like other powertrain types, PHEVs have certain niches where they're better than conventional ICE vehicles, hybrids, and BEVs, but they also have some pretty idiosyncratic issues that make them worse. They're lugging around two different powertrains which itself is unfortunately a weight on efficiency and costs, and then on top of that an issue with overall maintenance costs. The small battery size they have is nice in not incurring battery expense, but it also, as mentioned in previous topics, means that it has lower charge (charging from a charger or regenerative braking) and discharge (performance / acceleration) rates as well as longevity (number of miles per duty cycle) since these are all closely tied to battery capacity. They also generally don't have the packaging advantages but instead sometimes have to intrude on the usable interior volume to accommodate the two powertrain elements.
Your talk about BEVs needing to achieve at least 1000 km for overall market penetration is ridiculous given that for decades ICE vehicles have rested at an average around 400 miles of range and that's with virtually no one having the convenience of being able to charge at home overnight. The fire/explosion risk of lithium-ion cells has already been fixed for the most part and as proven many times on this forum but which you are unable to retain in your head, is an order of magnitude lower in fire risk thus far than internal combustion engine vehicles including on an adjusted per vehicle level. The weight problem has been continuously addressed and in several segments EVs are in the weight range of their closest ICE equivalents and the approximate doubling of energy density every 9-14 year as we've seen for the last several decades means that we're soon headed to EVs being the *lighter* vehicle. The same goes for replacing batteries which are at about reasonable price as replacing the powertrain of internal combustion engine vehicles.
You have no experience with EVs. You do not have any knowledge of this and you probably have nothing resembling a STEMs background. You have a lot of bluster, but all that does is make it apparent how ignorant you are on this topic the longer you keep going.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-13-2023 at 09:58 PM..
My problem with electric cars are their shelf life. For example we have a 2004 VW Passat we bought new for around 15K. The car lasted through 3 different kids driving it to college. It’s got around 130,000 miles on it and now I have it back. It still runs really good, is easy on gas and very dependable.
What is an elec car going to be 20 years later?
Many of them, just like any car.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PullMyFinger
What about the battery? Chances are the car won’t be worth what a new battery costs right?
An EV battery is good for about 300-500K miles which should get you past 20 years. There are EVs with over 1M miles. Chances are may be worth much more - a 2008 Tesla Roadster is normally over $100K.
Thank you for the kind words of support. Lacking facts to offer in rebuttal, personal attacks are high praise and evidence of capitulation.
Did you offer a single bit of support for your facts? No. So why should he do it in kind?
I'll do it for you this time, but you need to understand that you have a bad track record of this where you've repeatedly done some rather shoddy work on energy calculations and you do not do a good job of citing and understanding your sources.
Estimates on reserves for resources, not just lithium, often go up as it becomes apparent they are a growth industry and more companies and people start looking for them. Lithium in terms of actual scientific estimates of total availability on earth rather than economically extractable reserves were always extremely high and well beyond what's needed.
Your whole first swap thing is ridiculous. Lithium and other materials in batteries are not destroyed in usage as they do not undergo atomic changes into new elements nor do they get ablated or ejected into the air--they instead go through chemical and physical changes where the raw materials are still there. While collecting small amounts of these for recycling from a lot of tiny devices scattered everywhere is hard to make economical in some sense, BEVs are large collections of a lot of material and thus are already profitable for recycling even despite the lack of scale.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-13-2023 at 11:16 PM..
There are about 1.474 billion vehicles on Earth in 2023. About 19% of those vehicles are in the United States.
A Tesla Model S battery ... contains around 62.6 kg (138 pounds) of lithium.
Assuming a 1:1 swap of 290 million ICEs with BEVs, that’s 18,241,000,000 kg
or 18,241,000 tonnes (20,107,260 short tons)
US lithium reserve estimated at 8 million tonnes versus demand of 18.2 million tonnes.
U.S. Geological Survey estimates 26 million tons of global lithium reserves.
But what about the rest of the world and their demand for lithium?
- - - - -
Can lithium batteries be 100% recycled? No. https://greencitizen.com/blog/lithiu...ery-recycling/
On average, about 50% of a lithium-ion battery can be recycled in an effective way. Unfortunately, this means that a considerable amount of the materials in it have to be safely stored in a permanent way.
Unfortunately, 95% of lithium-ion batteries find their way to landfills. And they're very toxic.
- - - - -
BATTERY LOSSES https://spectrum.ieee.org/how-effici...ts-complicated
Depending on factors like the ambient-air temperature, how empty the battery is when you start charging, and the supply voltage to your EV's charging unit, the efficiency of charging can vary between 70 percent and 90 percent.
- - - - -
The Tesla Model 3 has a 60-kWh battery, that requires 66 kWh to fully charge (assuming 90% efficiency).
290 million BEVs x 66 kWh each day = 19,140,000,000 kWh.
Multiplied by 365 days = 6,989 billion kWh total.
In 2022, net generation of electricity from utility-scale generators in the United States was about 4,243 billion kWh total.
Wuh Woh, Scooby
Last edited by jetgraphics; 09-13-2023 at 11:40 PM..
There are about 1.474 billion vehicles on Earth in 2023. About 19% of those vehicles are in the United States.
A Tesla Model S battery ... contains around 62.6 kg (138 pounds) of lithium.
Assuming a 1:1 swap of 290 million ICEs with BEVs, that’s 18,241,000,000 kg
or 18,241,000 tonnes (20,107,260 short tons)
US lithium reserve estimated at 8 million tonnes versus demand of 18.2 million tonnes.
U.S. Geological Survey estimates 26 million tons of global lithium reserves.
But what about the rest of the world and their demand for lithium?
- - - - -
Can lithium batteries be 100% recycled? No. https://greencitizen.com/blog/lithiu...ery-recycling/
On average, about 50% of a lithium-ion battery can be recycled in an effective way. Unfortunately, this means that a considerable amount of the materials in it have to be safely stored in a permanent way.
Unfortunately, 95% of lithium-ion batteries find their way to landfills. And they're very toxic.
- - - - -
BATTERY LOSSES https://spectrum.ieee.org/how-effici...ts-complicated
Depending on factors like the ambient-air temperature, how empty the battery is when you start charging, and the supply voltage to your EV's charging unit, the efficiency of charging can vary between 70 percent and 90 percent.
- - - - -
The Tesla Model 3 has a 60-kWh battery, that requires 66 kWh to fully charge (assuming 90% efficiency).
290 million BEVs x 66 kWh each day = 19,140,000,000 kWh.
Multiplied by 365 days = 6,989 billion kWh total.
In 2022, net generation of electricity from utility-scale generators in the United States was about 4,243 billion kWh total.
Wuh Woh, Scooby
You can get your recycling percentage down to 0% if you want to be incompetent about it.
So yea, go ahead and be a recycler that's incredibly bad at recovering expensive materials to sell later. It's probably not going to work out very well and you'll be put out of business by places that actually know what they're doing.
US Geological Survey for the past few years have kept revising upwards by large margins the amount of proven economically viable reserves. That just gets larger and larger for a while. Also, did you just use one of the largest battery packs sold in the US and with its lithium content from 2016 when energy density was substantially lower and taking the weight of the lithium carbonate precursor which is only 24% lithium by weight as your *average* for the future? Did you not understand this when you did it or are you trying to be slimy about this? This is ridiculously unreasonable.
66 kWh each day per vehicle as in you're using the full pack every day? Do you mean you're projecting ~250 miles every day for each vehicle 365 days a year as an *average* number of miles driven a day? Does this not seem stupid to you? The average number of miles driven a *year* in the US is about 13,500 miles. You're projecting 91,250 miles driven a year instead as an average.
Again, you're awful at analysis. No wonder the numbers don't make sense, because you're posting complete nonsense and have no idea of it. How does someone get the confidence to be this ridiculous and have no idea they're doing so? I understand why these numbers would be worrisome, but to arrive at these numbers you'd have to first be scientifically and numerically illiterate in the first place or incredibly dishonest.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-14-2023 at 12:51 AM..
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