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Old 04-11-2014, 12:02 AM
 
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
10,930 posts, read 11,729,269 times
Reputation: 13170

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I'm sticking with the theory that the loss of this plane, crew and passengers was due to an unimaginably rare set of mechanical problems, so rare that we may never be able to piece it all together, even if the wreckage can be found and brought to the surface. The simplest explanation is that the crew and passengers were "overcome" by smoke and/or a near-catastrophic de-compression at high altitude and that the plane's computer systems (even with the auto-pilot off) were responsible for the erratic changes in course, speed and altitude, self-correcting for the decompression and/or fire and subsequent turbulence and violent winds. Even with the auto-pilot off, the computers can and will adjust to these type of events by keeping the plane within a "safe envelope"...until it runs out of fuel.
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Old 04-11-2014, 04:32 AM
 
Location: near bears but at least no snakes
26,655 posts, read 28,697,006 times
Reputation: 50536
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frihed89 View Post
I'm sticking with the theory that the loss of this plane, crew and passengers was due to an unimaginably rare set of mechanical problems, so rare that we may never be able to piece it all together, even if the wreckage can be found and brought to the surface. The simplest explanation is that the crew and passengers were "overcome" by smoke and/or a near-catastrophic de-compression at high altitude and that the plane's computer systems (even with the auto-pilot off) were responsible for the erratic changes in course, speed and altitude, self-correcting for the decompression and/or fire and subsequent turbulence and violent winds. Even with the auto-pilot off, the computers can and will adjust to these type of events by keeping the plane within a "safe envelope"...until it runs out of fuel.
If I have a theory, this would come closest to it. It doesn't seem like a hijacking and even though pilot suicide is a possibility, from what we know there isn't much of a motive.

I sincerely hope this latest report is true and that they can narrow down the area to search so that some sort of equipment can be sent down to find the plane.
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Old 04-11-2014, 08:51 AM
 
7,280 posts, read 10,955,708 times
Reputation: 11491
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frihed89 View Post
I'm sticking with the theory that the loss of this plane, crew and passengers was due to an unimaginably rare set of mechanical problems, so rare that we may never be able to piece it all together, even if the wreckage can be found and brought to the surface. The simplest explanation is that the crew and passengers were "overcome" by smoke and/or a near-catastrophic de-compression at high altitude and that the plane's computer systems (even with the auto-pilot off) were responsible for the erratic changes in course, speed and altitude, self-correcting for the decompression and/or fire and subsequent turbulence and violent winds. Even with the auto-pilot off, the computers can and will adjust to these type of events by keeping the plane within a "safe envelope"...until it runs out of fuel.
If that turns out to be true, the impact will be felt immediately for any airline using the 777. The reputation of the aircraft will be tarnished significantly.
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Old 04-11-2014, 09:27 AM
 
3,175 posts, read 3,656,655 times
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Originally Posted by Mack Knife View Post
If that turns out to be true, the impact will be felt immediately for any airline using the 777. The reputation of the aircraft will be tarnished significantly.
A very good reason to blame it on the pilot.
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Old 04-11-2014, 09:48 AM
 
7,280 posts, read 10,955,708 times
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Originally Posted by mag32gie View Post
A very good reason to blame it on the pilot.
I sure hope not because a problem (IF that turns out to be the case) with the plane not addressed would show up again sooner or later. Then the confidence of the flying public would be damaged greatly.

Imagine if something like the GM fiasco got into the airline industry. While there have been problems before, in this case it would be a PR disaster that would do a lot of damage to Boeing unless it was a purely maintenance problem.
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Old 04-11-2014, 09:55 AM
 
7,280 posts, read 10,955,708 times
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Someone just a page or so back said "they knew" or something like that regarding the location of the plane.

Bingo. That was brought up much earlier in the thread as well. I think there was no way anyone who knew was going to say because it might divulge the capabilities to track submarines and virtually any ship at sea. With the submarines especially, if the Russians though or knew we could watch their subs other than by tracking them with other submarines or sensor nets, that would really change the game.

Likewise if some other country had some technology that could do the same, it would shake our ideas of naval operations to the core.
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Old 04-11-2014, 10:32 AM
 
Location: La Mesa Aka The Table
9,824 posts, read 11,554,110 times
Reputation: 11900
I'm calling my shot now!
This plane will not be found for a couple of more years.
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Old 04-11-2014, 10:33 AM
 
14,478 posts, read 20,662,041 times
Reputation: 8001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frihed89 View Post
I'm sticking with the theory that the loss of this plane, crew and passengers was due to an unimaginably rare set of mechanical problems, so rare that we may never be able to piece it all together, even if the wreckage can be found and brought to the surface. The simplest explanation is that the crew and passengers were "overcome" by smoke and/or a near-catastrophic de-compression at high altitude and that the plane's computer systems (even with the auto-pilot off) were responsible for the erratic changes in course, speed and altitude, self-correcting for the decompression and/or fire and subsequent turbulence and violent winds. Even with the auto-pilot off, the computers can and will adjust to these type of events by keeping the plane within a "safe envelope"...until it runs out of fuel.
I agree.....as CNN has reported, never before mechanical failures don't get known until they happen.

Why fly the plane for many hours if your goal was to crash it in the sea? Go ahead and crash it between Vietnam and Malaysia and not keep flying only to be caught by radar or by scrambled military jets. Suicide or crash then do it right then when you said "good night."
---------------
There is one CNN analyst who is rarely seen on their show, but the other night he said he is sticking with his theory that the plane landed somewhere and it was painted. Whether the passengers were killed, or imprisoned, he did not say.
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Old 04-11-2014, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Minnysoda
10,659 posts, read 10,730,854 times
Reputation: 6745
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mack Knife View Post
Someone just a page or so back said "they knew" or something like that regarding the location of the plane.

Bingo. That was brought up much earlier in the thread as well. I think there was no way anyone who knew was going to say because it might divulge the capabilities to track submarines and virtually any ship at sea. With the submarines especially, if the Russians though or knew we could watch their subs other than by tracking them with other submarines or sensor nets, that would really change the game.

Likewise if some other country had some technology that could do the same, it would shake our ideas of naval operations to the core.
Not sure what you are talking about with this statement? We track Russian subs all the time. They technology to do so has existed for years and allot of it isn't even secret.....What do you think a P3 and now the P8 do? Those bad boys find submarines track and kill them if they have to. They are not designed as a surface search platform they are sub hunters! If Aviation assets are finding the missing plane they are using pretty standard location technology to do to. IF they do get a ping it's because they have sonobouys in the water and are flying search pattern. Pretty sure crashed aircraft will not leave enough of a signature to use the MAD gear. (not even sure a whole 777 will hit on MAD) The latest greatest surface search radar is the ISAR and that might help find debris on the surface if it large enough....

The P-3 Orion
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Old 04-11-2014, 10:59 AM
 
Location: near bears but at least no snakes
26,655 posts, read 28,697,006 times
Reputation: 50536
Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
I agree.....as CNN has reported, never before mechanical failures don't get known until they happen.

Why fly the plane for many hours if your goal was to crash it in the sea? Go ahead and crash it between Vietnam and Malaysia and not keep flying only to be caught by radar or by scrambled military jets. Suicide or crash then do it right then when you said "good night."
---------------
There is one CNN analyst who is rarely seen on their show, but the other night he said he is sticking with his theory that the plane landed somewhere and it was painted. Whether the passengers were killed, or imprisoned, he did not say.

That part about landing it and painting it, then using it for another purpose was one of the prevailing theories by pilot friends of my husband who work in that part of the world. It would almost seem that a lot of them are expecting something like this, just waiting for it to happen. They seem to think that there are a lot of people behind the scenes with a lot of connections, like a network, that could make this happen. These would be people who work for airlines, work at airports and so on.

Personally I don't believe that is the case this time but it bears watching--better than it happening and then these people who always suspected it getting their chance to say "We told you so."
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