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You can use advanced metrics or a magic 8 ball; the guys percentage of attempted base stealers vs. those that are caught stealing ranks higher than average for his career compared to others at the same position.
I'm legitimately confused by what you mean by 'percentage of attempted base stealers vs. those that are caught stealing'.
I'll assume that you mean caught stealing percentage, but if I'm wrong, let me know.
First, in 12,843 innings behind the plate Posada has thrown out 386 guys. That's one guy every .03 innings. To use that stat to say anything about his defense would seem to leave out a heck of a lot of what goes on while Jorge is squatting.
Second, in his career Posada has thrown out 386 of 1365 runners, or 28%. Between 1997 and 2010 (Posada's career) AL teams have stolen 19450 of 27636 bases, or a 29.6% caught stealing rate. So, using CS% Posada has been slightly worse than average.
Third, in Posada's 12843 innings caught in his career he has given up 979 stolen bases. 12843 innings = 1427 nine inning 'games'. 979/1427 = .68 sb per game. Assuming 2268 (14 teams times 162 games) games per season between 1997 and 2009 and 2172 games this season, there have been 31656 games played in Posada's 'career'. 19450 (total steals during that time) / 31656 games = .61 steals per game. So, Posada gives up more stolen bases per game than average.
I fail to see how using stolen bases and caught stealings, Posada rates any better than average.
I'm legitimately confused by what you mean by 'percentage of attempted base stealers vs. those that are caught stealing'.
I'll assume that you mean caught stealing percentage, but if I'm wrong, let me know.
First, in 12,843 innings behind the plate Posada has thrown out 386 guys. That's one guy every .03 innings. To use that stat to say anything about his defense would seem to leave out a heck of a lot of what goes on while Jorge is squatting.
Second, in his career Posada has thrown out 386 of 1365 runners, or 28%. Between 1997 and 2010 (Posada's career) AL teams have stolen 19450 of 27636 bases, or a 29.6% caught stealing rate. So, using CS% Posada has been slightly worse than average.
Third, in Posada's 12843 innings caught in his career he has given up 979 stolen bases. 12843 innings = 1427 nine inning 'games'. 979/1427 = .68 sb per game. Assuming 2268 (14 teams times 162 games) games per season between 1997 and 2009 and 2172 games this season, there have been 31656 games played in Posada's 'career'. 19450 (total steals during that time) / 31656 games = .61 steals per game. So, Posada gives up more stolen bases per game than average.
I fail to see how using stolen bases and caught stealings, Posada rates any better than average.
Here's an idea: get me the percentage of runners thrown out for Piazza, Bench, Fisk, and a bunch of other catchers who are in the hall or likely to go in and then we will talk.
Here's an idea: get me the percentage of runners thrown out for Piazza, Bench, Fisk, and a bunch of other catchers who are in the hall or likely to go in and then we will talk.
Are you reading filihok's posts? He has already provided the numbers which indicate that Posada's throwing is a bit below average for his career. I would say that as an argument for his admission to the Hall, we may safely dismiss the catcher's throwing as a factor, Posada isn't going into the Hall on the basis of superior base theft prevention.
Further, filihok has provided the numbers to educate you on how insubstantial a portion of overall catcher defense, is the control of the running game.
Finally, why cannot you do your own research for the numbers you requested? If you have some point to make based on them, then the task is your homework, not filihok's.
Here's an idea: get me the percentage of runners thrown out for Piazza, Bench, Fisk, and a bunch of other catchers who are in the hall or likely to go in and then we will talk.
Now, to fully disclose, a catcher's CS% is dependent on a lot of things other than just the catcher. The pitcher and the era being the two biggest. As teams have begun to realize the relative values of an extra base vs an out, stealing percentage has become higher. So Ray Schalk throwing out 57% of base runners in 1920 isn't 'twice as good' as Posada throwing out 28% now. That's why I went through the tedium of figuring out the overall CS% during Posada's playing years. He's below average. Most of the other catchers in the hall are above average.
As I said earlier in the thread, Posada is, IMO a HoF catcher, but not because of how he throws out base stealers.
If you think that skill gets him in I'd be more than happy to hear your reasons.
Now, to fully disclose, a catcher's CS% is dependent on a lot of things other than just the catcher. The pitcher and the era being the two biggest. As teams have begun to realize the relative values of an extra base vs an out, stealing percentage has become higher. So Ray Schalk throwing out 57% of base runners in 1920 isn't 'twice as good' as Posada throwing out 28% now. That's why I went through the tedium of figuring out the overall CS% during Posada's playing years. He's below average. Most of the other catchers in the hall are above average.
As I said earlier in the thread, Posada is, IMO a HoF catcher, but not because of how he throws out base stealers.
If you think that skill gets him in I'd be more than happy to hear your reasons.
I think his defense is above average. In the last few years he has also been above the average in throwing out runners. It is also true about other factors including pitchers delivery to the plate, whereas a guy like AJ Burnett is one of the slowest to the plate and this allows for more runners to get further. As a hitter he was also above average and did have a few great years even though he has never been a 30-40 HR guy. Do I think he is as good as a Johnny Bench or a Fisk...no. When I factor in offense and defense, do I think he is as good if not better than a one sided player like Piazza...yes. Hall worthy...once again i'd say maybe or probably yes but definitely not a first ballot guy.
In the last few years he has also been above the average in throwing out runners.
No he hasn't.
Caught stealing percentage
2010 Posada 16% AL Average 27.9%
2009 Posada 28% AL Average 27.6%
2008 Posada 17% AL Average 25.6%
2007 Posada 24% AL Average 28.6%
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Hall worthy...once again i'd say maybe or probably yes but definitely not a first ballot guy.
What's the difference between a 'first ballot guy' and a 'third ballot guy'. I'd think that a guy is either a HoFer or he isn't. What criteria does one use to say this guy belongs in the HoF but I wont vote for him for 3 more years?
What's the difference between a 'first ballot guy' and a 'third ballot guy'. I'd think that a guy is either a HoFer or he isn't. What criteria does one use to say this guy belongs in the HoF but I wont vote for him for 3 more years?
I agree with you on the either in or out approach and would prefer a voting system where it is a one shot deal, you make it or you fail to make it.
However....if such a system came into being, it would work better with a hieracharcy style Hall, one where there was a first classification for the megastars, and another for the careers of excellence which were not hyper dominant. One room would feature the Mays and Aarons and Carltons and those of their ilk, and another for the Hoyt Wilhems and Tony Perez types.
That there is no hierarchy now has been informally compensated for by the string em out voting approach. The first ballot guys are generally the upper tier players and the lesser lights such as Jim Rice are made to wait. So, there is something of a defacto, if not official, hierarchy in place already.
It isn't very satisfactory because it isn't very well defined, well, actually it isn't formally defined at all, it just evolved into a tradition.
I agree with you on the either in or out approach and would prefer a voting system where it is a one shot deal, you make it or you fail to make it.
However....if such a system came into being, it would work better with a hieracharcy style Hall, one where there was a first classification for the megastars, and another for the careers of excellence which were not hyper dominant. One room would feature the Mays and Aarons and Carltons and those of their ilk, and another for the Hoyt Wilhems and Tony Perez types.
That there is no hierarchy now has been informally compensated for by the string em out voting approach. The first ballot guys are generally the upper tier players and the lesser lights such as Jim Rice are made to wait. So, there is something of a defacto, if not official, hierarchy in place already.
It isn't very satisfactory because it isn't very well defined, well, actually it isn't formally defined at all, it just evolved into a tradition.
I definitely agree with the flaws in the balloting system. You do have writers that hold grudges and others who feel sympathy for a player and eventually let them in a few years down the road. That's why I think Jorge will make it. I do think he is a borderline guy but obviously a borderline guy is helped by getting a few rings as well.
Look, Posada is a better-than-average catcher. That doesn't mean he belongs in the Hall of Fame. (And in case you were wondering, no, I don't believe Mike Piazza should EVER get any consideration for the Hall. He could certainly hit, but he wasn't a catcher; he was a liability behind the plate!)
Everything that I look at tells me that he was a worse than average catcher
You're simple insistence doesn't make it so
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That doesn't mean he belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Yeah, he does.
A player who provides 50 runs with the bit while losing 10 runs with the glove is still +40
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(And in case you were wondering, no, I don't believe Mike Piazza should EVER get any consideration for the Hall. He could certainly hit, but he wasn't a catcher; he was a liability behind the plate!)
Posada is also a liability behind the plate.
Even though he was a liability behind the plate, Piazza still provided more value while catching than just about any player who ever donned the tools of ignorance.
How about Ozzie Smith? Does he belong in the HoF? Would it surprise you to know that for his career he was a liability at the plate. He provided less offense over his career than the average player but he was able to make up for it with his glove.
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