My prediction for the 2011 Atlanta Braves (games, homeruns, record, balls)

[Ridgerunner]

Heyward could be a late bloomer in the power department like Don Mattingly who hit only 37 home runs in 5 minor league seasons.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

That analysis was very interesting, filihok. Maybe Heyward should spend some time around whoever it was that worked on Bautista's swing before the 2010 season.

For reference:
Bautista 2009: LD 16.7%, GB 41.3%, FB 42.1%, .339
Bautista 2010: LD 14.4%, GB 31.1%, FB 54.5%, .422

Here's an interesting article on the mechanics of his swing
Altered Swing Mechanics Key to Jose Bautista's Home Run Binge -- MLB FanHouse

It also appears that he made the adjustment late in the 2009 season
Month Outfield FB%, HR/FB, wOBA
April 19%, 9.1, .384
May 20%, 0, .345
June 37%, 10, .337
July 28%, 5.3, .271
August 28% 0, .259
Sept/Oct 42%, 25.6, .393

[filihok]

Originally Posted by OMGosh Josh

108 wins???

Seconded

The Braves are definitely going to give the boys in Philly a run for their money, though. While our rotation isn't full of the names in lights, I'd still put our guys up against yours, any day of the week.

Let me put it this way: Our starters are anything but pushovers. They can compete with the best of 'em. That having been said, Philly's rotation is still scary.

ZiPS Projections
Lee 16 - 6 3.03 205 innings 138 ERA+
Halladay 20 - 7 3.30 223 138 ERA+
Oswalt 14 - 7 3.38 186 124 ERA+
Hamels 14 - 8 3.47 202 121 ERA+

Hansen 15 - 7 3.10 202 130 ERA+
Hudson 10 - 7 3.70 148 109 ERA+
Jurjens 12 - 9 3.82 177 106 ERA+
Lowe 13 - 13 4.39 184 92ERA+

The Braves rotation is ok. The Phillies rotation might be historically good.
Best. Rotation. Ever? | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.city-data.com/forum/17007745-post44.html

http://www.city-data.com/forum/17007505-post43.html

[OMGosh Josh]

Originally Posted by filihok

Seconded



ZiPS Projections
Lee 16 - 6 3.03 205 innings 138 ERA+
Halladay 20 - 7 3.30 223 138 ERA+
Oswalt 14 - 7 3.38 186 124 ERA+
Hamels 14 - 8 3.47 202 121 ERA+

Hansen 15 - 7 3.10 202 130 ERA+
Hudson 10 - 7 3.70 148 109 ERA+
Jurjens 12 - 9 3.82 177 106 ERA+
Lowe 13 - 13 4.39 184 92ERA+

The Braves rotation is ok. The Phillies rotation might be historically good.
Best. Rotation. Ever? | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.city-data.com/forum/17007745-post44.html

http://www.city-data.com/forum/17007505-post43.html

Predictions are just that, sir.

See you at the end of the season?

[filihok]

Originally Posted by OMGosh Josh

Predictions are just that, sir.

See you at the end of the season?

Projections are not predictions.

Of course, anything can happen though

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by filihok

Projections are not predictions.

I do not think that the above is well understood by most.

I would liken a projection to an understanding of the odds in a game of craps. The odds may be calculated and seven identified as the combination which is most likely to appear on a throw, but that doesn't mean that someone is predicting that seven will come up on a particular toss, just that there are more chances for it to happen than anything else.

[SoCalbound12]

I'm thinking WC for us this year however I don't discount us from contending for the division. We have a young team, we acquired Uggla this year and our pitching staff is one of the best in the NL. I really like Fredi Gonzalez as our manager and think we can contend this year.

[SoCalbound12]

Originally Posted by filihok

Seconded



ZiPS Projections
Lee 16 - 6 3.03 205 innings 138 ERA+
Halladay 20 - 7 3.30 223 138 ERA+
Oswalt 14 - 7 3.38 186 124 ERA+
Hamels 14 - 8 3.47 202 121 ERA+

Hansen 15 - 7 3.10 202 130 ERA+
Hudson 10 - 7 3.70 148 109 ERA+
Jurjens 12 - 9 3.82 177 106 ERA+
Lowe 13 - 13 4.39 184 92ERA+

The Braves rotation is ok. The Phillies rotation might be historically good.
Best. Rotation. Ever? | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.city-data.com/forum/17007745-post44.html

http://www.city-data.com/forum/17007505-post43.html

Yes but three of Philly's pitchers are getting up there in years and also no one can account for possible injuries. Philly's window is closing whilest the Braves' window is just starting to open.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by NorthGAbound12

Yes but three of Philly's pitchers are getting up there in years

Two of Atlanta's pitchers are older than any of Philly's

Cliff Lee - 32
Halladay - 34
Oswalt - 33
Hamels - 27
TOTAL AGE = 126

Hansen - 24
Hudson - 35
Jurrjens - 25
Lowe - 38
TOTAL AGE = 122

4 years. 1 year per pitcher.

I'll take the Phillies' rotation over the Braves' for the next two years without a doubt.

[OMGosh Josh]

Originally Posted by filihok

Two of Atlanta's pitchers are older than any of Philly's

Cliff Lee - 32
Halladay - 34
Oswalt - 33
Hamels - 27
TOTAL AGE = 126

Hansen - 24
Hudson - 35
Jurrjens - 25
Lowe - 38
TOTAL AGE = 122

4 years. 1 year per pitcher.

I'll take the Phillies' rotation over the Braves' for the next two years without a doubt.

It's Hanson, by the way, with an "O." Sorry, not being a douche. Just kinda annoyed me.

Anyway, that's beside the point. How do you think the perception of the Braves rotation changes once Teheran gets the call up?

Also, I feel a lot better about our 'pen than I do about theirs (Philly's).