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In 130 years of baseball history there have been 17,134 pitcher seasons where a pitcher has pitched 70 innings or more. ONE of those pitchers has had an ERA above 5 while striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings and walking less than 2 per 9 innings. Greinke's season is an absolute anomaly.
And lots of things, unrelated to the pitcher himself, can cause a pitcher to give up a lot of earned runs.
Imagine a pitcher with the bases loaded and 2 outs. All of the runners on base are there legitimately, say by hit, and if they score they will be earned runs.
In scenario one, the batter hits a deep fly ball to CF which clears the fence for a home run. The pitcher is charged with 4 earned runs.
In scenario two, the batter hits a deep fly ball to CF and the CFer does this (http://tinyurl.com/67l7ha5 - broken link). The pitcher is charged with 0 earned runs despite giving up the exact same batted ball.
The skill of the fielder influences the pitcher's ERA. Thus, the pitcher's ERA is not representative of his own skill.
A starting pitcher again loads the bases with two outs. This time the manager summons a reliever.
In scenario one the relief pitcher is Mariano Rivera. Rivera uses his cutter to make the batter look silly in striking out. The starter gives up 0 earned runs.
In scenario two the relief pitcher is Joba Chamberlain who gives up a bases-clearing double. The starter gives up 3 earned runs.
The starting pitcher does the exact same thing in both scenarios but is charged with a different amount of earned runs based on the skill of another player.
The bases are again loaded with 2 outs.
In scenario one the pitcher induces the batter to sharply hit a ball to Derek Jeter. Jeter ranges 3 millimeters to his left and the ball strikes the heel of his glove and bounces into CF. Two runs score. The official scorer, who has a shrine dedicated to Minka Kelly in his basement, rules the play an error. The pitcher is charged with zero earned runs. The next batter homers, no worries though, those 3 runs are unearned as well.
In scenario two the exact same thing happens, only the official scorer saw Transformers 3 the night before and tossed his Minka shrine into the trash in favor of a Rosie Huntington shrine. He rules the play a single and the pitcher is charged with 2 earned runs. The next batter still homers, but this time all 5 runs that scored are earned.
ERA is a terrible way to judge a pitcher's performance because it holds the pitcher responsible for many things that are out of his control.
Sorry but you have to analyze your explanations. For a pitcher to have a high ERA it means that he is allowing runners to score. Obviously we all know that relievers can stop inhereted runners from scoring or not but don't try pawning it all off on the relievers. You can't allow more than 3 inhereted runners to score no matter what relief pitcher you are. Any more than that would be charged to the new pitcher. Also if a fielder commits and error, than the runs would be credited as UNEARNED, which has NO EFFECT on ERA but could effect win/loss. The guy who was in contention for the cy young a couple of years ago is not the same pitcher as this year. His control might be good but apparently he is much more hittable especially with runners on.
Sorry but you have to analyze your explanations. For a pitcher to have a high ERA it means that he is allowing runners to score. Obviously we all know that relievers can stop inhereted runners from scoring or not but don't try pawning it all off on the relievers. You can't allow more than 3 inhereted runners to score no matter what relief pitcher you are. Any more than that would be charged to the new pitcher.
A Brewers reliever has not prevented an inherited runner of Greinke's from scoring this season. Every runner that Greinke has intrusted to his bullpen has scored. Granted, that's only two runners...
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Also if a fielder commits and error, than the runs would be credited as UNEARNED, which has NO EFFECT on ERA but could effect win/loss.
Yes. I understand that and clearly pointed it out in my post. However, the point that I was making, that apparently was lost on you was that the decision to rule a play an error is the official scorer's. Therefore, whether runs or earned or not is not due entirely to Greinke's pitching skill, but to parties (the defender, the scorer) that are totally out of Greinke's control.
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His control might be good but apparently he is much more hittable especially with runners on.
There are two main reasons that Greinke's ERA is so high.
First, His BABIP against is .355. The Brewers are a poor defensive team. Their total team BABIP against is .300 compared to a .294 league average.
If Greinke was giving up hits as the same rate as the league, based on his batted ball profile, his BABIP against would be .279. As it is, he has given up 13 more hits than we would expect.
This could be evidence that Greinke is getting hit extra hard. However, I find it hard to believe that a guy who has a career high strikeout rate and a career high swinging strike rate is suddenly getting hit harder than usual. That just doesn't make sense.
Second, 44% of the runners who have reached base against Greinke have scored. The major league average is about 27%. What would cause Greinke to be within sniffing distance of being half as adept at preventing base runners from scoring?
Greinke's tOPS (comparing Greinke in this situation to Greinke in all situations) with no runners on base is 91. That means Greinke is slightly better with the bases empty (100 is average).
Greinke's tOPS with runners on base is 112. That means Greinke is worse with runners on base.
This is fairly normal. The league numbers are 98 and 103 for those situations. Batters have the advantage once runners are on base.
Greinke's tOPS with runners is scoring position is 171. That means that Greinke is much worse with runners in scoring position. The league tOPS in that situation is 103.
So, is Greinke rattled with runners on base and in scoring position? Maybe
But, Greinke's BABIP with no runners on is .349
With runners on it is .350
With runners in scoring position it is .432
Again, could this be that Greinke is getting hit harder when runners are in scoring postion? Maybe
But, Greinke has struck out 59 of 184 batters with no runners on-32%
With runners on he has struck out 40 of 136 batters-29%
With runners in scoring position he has struck out 23 of 80 batters-29%
Basically all the same.
Again, it makes no sense that Greinke would be getting hit especially hard in situations with runners in scoring position while maintaining his ability to strike batters out. If Greinke was performing sub optimally in these situations wouldn't you expect that batters he was usually striking out would be getting hits or at least making contact with his pitches. Instead, batters that are usually grounding or flying out are getting hits.
I can't break the data down enough (and if I could we'd be farther into Small Sample Size hell than we already are) to see if he's giving up more line drives with runners in scoring position-while that is possible it is also possible that more hits are simply falling in with runners on base and that over the course of the season this is likely to start evening out.
If you really want to break it down, inconsistency has been his enemy. When the Yankees faced him,they smacked him around. That never helps the ERA, and has nothing to do with anything else.
If you really want to break it down, inconsistency has been his enemy. When the Yankees faced him,they smacked him around. That never helps the ERA, and has nothing to do with anything else.
Greinke didn't pitch well against the Yankees.
The thing about inconsistency is that it is usually the result of the fact that most of the results of pitching are out of the pitcher's control.
All he can do is throw the pitches. He has some determination on the outcome of the at bat, but so does:
The umpire
The batter
The fielders
The stadium
The weather
etc...
This is why we look at the things that the pitchers have the most control over; strike out rates, walk rates, and batted ball rates. We assume that pitchers have control over these things because they remain stable from year to year for most pitchers.
EDIT:
A point that's certainly been made by others.
The homerun derby or batting practice
Pitchers aren't trying to get outs. They are throwing 80 MPH fastballs with the intent of letting the hitter hit it. But, batters still fly out to the kids shagging balls. Does a pitcher trying to give up a home run get credit for getting a batter to hit a pop fly?
If a pitcher threw a batting practice fastball in a game with the bases loaded and the batter missed it and flied out to RF, we certainly wouldn't applaud his approach just because it ended in the desired outcome. Likewise, we shouldn't look only at the results (a 5.45 ERA) and while ignoring the solid stats behind that (Greinke being one of the toughest pitchers in the league to put the bat on the ball against).
The thing about inconsistency is that it is usually the result of the fact that most of the results of pitching are out of the pitcher's control.
All he can do is throw the pitches. He has some determination on the outcome of the at bat, but so does:
The umpire
The batter
The fielders
The stadium
The weather
etc...
This is why we look at the things that the pitchers have the most control over; strike out rates, walk rates, and batted ball rates. We assume that pitchers have control over these things because they remain stable from year to year for most pitchers.
EDIT:
A point that's certainly been made by others.
The homerun derby or batting practice
Pitchers aren't trying to get outs. They are throwing 80 MPH fastballs with the intent of letting the hitter hit it. But, batters still fly out to the kids shagging balls. Does a pitcher trying to give up a home run get credit for getting a batter to hit a pop fly?
If a pitcher threw a batting practice fastball in a game with the bases loaded and the batter missed it and flied out to RF, we certainly wouldn't applaud his approach just because it ended in the desired outcome. Likewise, we shouldn't look only at the results (a 5.45 ERA) and while ignoring the solid stats behind that (Greinke being one of the toughest pitchers in the league to put the bat on the ball against).
If that batting practice fastball (80 mph) was thrown after a 92 mph fastball, he would be credited with changing speeds well and fooling the batter. You can't ignore a 5.00+ ERA and tell me it has little meaning.
It's a hard question to ask, because a good pitcher 'right now' could fade as the season stretches on. The pitchers I'd want to have right now there are Halladay, Lee, and Verlander. Hamels has done pretty well, and I am on the fence about whether Timmy Lincecum will return to form.
Timmy's been a great pitcher the first five years of his career, but because his body is so small and he really has to strain to get velocity on his pitches, I wonder if he'll be a good pitcher in 3-5 years time.
If that batting practice fastball (80 mph) was thrown after a 92 mph fastball, he would be credited with changing speeds well and fooling the batter. You can't ignore a 5.00+ ERA and tell me it has little meaning.
Who is talking about a 80 MPH fastball after a 92 MPH fastball?
ERA has little meaning. Especially over the 70ish innings that Greinke has pitched this season
Who is talking about a 80 MPH fastball after a 92 MPH fastball?
ERA has little meaning. Especially over the 70ish innings that Greinke has pitched this season
Fili,
Why don't you do this...look at all the other starters on the Brewers and then look at Greinke. Now considering the potential for bad defensive range or the possibility of errors not being called, this is the closest you will come to a level playing field or fair way to judge. Now look at at their starters ERA and answer me why he is the highest. You can't tell me the Brewers have a bad CFer or SS when all of them have the same defense behind them.
Fili,
Why don't you do this...look at all the other starters on the Brewers and then look at Greinke. Now considering the potential for bad defensive range or the possibility of errors not being called, this is the closest you will come to a level playing field or fair way to judge. Now look at at their starters ERA and answer me why he is the highest. You can't tell me the Brewers have a bad CFer or SS when all of them have the same defense behind them.
The Brewers have scored 5.7 runs per game when Greinke starts
The Brewers have scored 5.2 runs per game when Gallardo starts
The Brewers have scored 4.4 runs per game when Narveson starts
The Brewers have scored 3.9 runs per game when Marcum starts
The Brewers have scored 3.5 runs per game when Wolf starts
You can't tell me the Brewers have a bad #3 or #4 hitter when all of them have the same offense
The Brewers have scored 5.7 runs per game when Greinke starts
The Brewers have scored 5.2 runs per game when Gallardo starts
The Brewers have scored 4.4 runs per game when Narveson starts
The Brewers have scored 3.9 runs per game when Marcum starts
The Brewers have scored 3.5 runs per game when Wolf starts
You can't tell me the Brewers have a bad #3 or #4 hitter when all of them have the same offense
Their offense doesn't have much to do with this argument. Their run support would mostly effect the win/loss ratio but not the ERA.
These figures are as of this morning:
Gallardo 10-6 4.08 ERA
Narveson 6-6 4.74 ERA
Marcum 7-3 3.39 ERA
Wolf 6-6 3.65 ERA
Greinke 7-3 5.04 ERA
Face it, Greinke isn't playing up to potential. You can point the finger all you want but the fact is that he is letting runners score. If his strikeouts are high and his walks low, it means lots of hits or timely hits are being given up. Which also means that his control is good but his movement on the ball is probably not.
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