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Unless he falls into a horrendous slump, it seems that Mookie Betts is the most likely winner of the AL MVP award.
The NL on the other hand, seems wide open with no clear cut favorite at the moment. Among position players the leading candidates appear to be:
Matt Carpenter - Cardinals - .963 OPS, 5.2 WAR
Nolan Arenado - Rockies - .963 OPS, 5.0 WAR
Paul Goldschmidt - Diamondbacks - .942 OPS, 4.9 WAR
Freddie Freeman- Braves - .912 OPS, 5.3 WAR
Javier Baez - Cubs - .904 OPS, 5.3 WAR
Lorenzo Cain - Brewers- .826 OPS, 5.8 WAR
Though Cain is the WAR leader, 2.0 of his WAR score is from his defense, and I don't think defensive WAR is well enough established or accepted to influence the voters. The same factor could hurt Baez's chances since 1.3 of his WAR is from his glove.
Sometimes when there are numerous position player candidates without one standing above the others, the award goes to a pitcher. By every measure save wins, Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in the NL this season, but his modest 8-8 record could hurt him despite the fact that it is now well known that wins and losses are a poor way to evaluate a pitcher. Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer would be the other two well qualified candidates.
A couple weeks ago I prematurely included your name in a post explaining how the MVP race is absolutely not based on WAR. You asked why I did that. This thread is the reason.
If J.D. Martinez wins the triple crown he will take the MVP. He's #1 in hits, homers, RBI's, total bases, extra base hits, slugging, and could take the lead back in batting average and homers in two at bats. Betts is trending downwards to boot.
J.D. Martinez or Mookie Betts for the the MVP... that's a very good problem for Boston to have.
I got to agree with Bumby here. If Martinez wins the triple crown, he'll get the MVP and WAR be-damned. I like WAR, I mostly understand WAR. But, average, HR and RBIs are clear cut. No special algorithm. If you lead in those traditional categories, that player will likely win the MVP.
A couple weeks ago I prematurely included your name in a post explaining how the MVP race is absolutely not based on WAR. You asked why I did that. This thread is the reason.
If J.D. Martinez wins the triple crown he will take the MVP. He's #1 in hits, homers, RBI's, total bases, extra base hits, slugging, and could take the lead back in batting average and homers in two at bats. Betts is trending downwards to boot.
You keep seeing things which are not there. Nowhere in my post do I state that the MVP should be based on WAR alone. In fact I have never stated this anywhere. So, argue with your own imagination if you will, but quit assigning me positions I have not taken, okay? And no..."well, it seems like something you would say" when you can't find me stating what you claim.
WAR is one tool, perhaps the single best tool, but not the only tool in the chest. Do you have a better tool to express in a single numeral, the sum of all of a players contributions toward scoring and preventing runs? If so, please present it it, I will be happy to evaluate it.
If you aren't interested in keeping up with the advanced metrics, which all of the clubs now use and rely upon, that is your choice. I would say that if you continue to resist, you will become more and more marginalized as a fan and your opinions will be given less and less respect. 30 years ago I began saying that metrics were the future of baseball, that once one club began using them to gain an advantage, then eventually all clubs will be doing so. That day has now come to pass. All the people, like you, who assured me I was wrong over the course of those 30 years, have now been proven themselves wrong. This may be the rightest I have ever been about anything, so your protests I view as spitballs against a battleship.
If you fail to embrace metrics, then the whole game is going to leave you behind and you will constantly be playing catch-up. This is how it now is....adapt or wither.
J.D. Martinez or Mookie Betts for the the MVP... that's a very good problem for Boston to have.
I got to agree with Bumby here. If Martinez wins the triple crown, he'll get the MVP and WAR be-damned. I like WAR, I mostly understand WAR. But, average, HR and RBIs are clear cut. No special algorithm. If you lead in those traditional categories, that player will likely win the MVP.
I do not agree. There have been signs in the post season voting that the new metrics are being taken more and more seriously. The 2008 Tim Lincecum CY Young and the 2010 Felix Hernandez win, showed that the voters had finally thrown off the yoke of "wins" as a leading barometer.
Miguel Cabrera won the award over a more deserving Mike Trout in 2012, but it wasn't unanimous despite Cabrera's Triple Crown. Plus that vote triggered a lot of discussion about the value of WAR vs something like a Triple Crown. I think that it has now become possible to win a Triple Crown and still not win the MVP if there is a more meritorious choice made clear by the metrics. I don't know that they will, but I do think it is possible.
Another thought on Martinez...he has played 47 games in the field, and played poorly, -1.3 defensive WAR. In his other 79 games he has been the DH and made no defensive contribution. The award has never gone to someone who was primarily a DH. In 1979 it went to Don Baylor because he led the AL in RBI, and he had been used at the DH slot a lot, but he stilled played in the field more games than he did as a DH. That isn't the case with Martinez.
No mention of Jose Ramirez, who is having arguably the best season by a third baseman, ever. Love it.
I think it's been Mookie Betts title to lose for a long time now, and he hasn't done anything to lose it, yet. A little slump is had by all - hasn't tanked yet, but Sept will tell the story.
OK, like the Cy Young was Chris Sale's to lose last year, because he plays for Boston. Got it. Well, Betts better keep his foot on the gas so he doesn't fall short, as his teammate did!
Unlike most other sports, baseball never factors in strength of opponent....or strength of one's own team. Sale doesn't have to face the powerhouse Boston Red Sox. Nor does he have a team behind him that is currently paid just $22 million. Blake Snell has both of those problems, no closer, and still has 17 wins. How much better would his stats be if his team didnt have to face the the Red Sox 18 times? And he probably have a few more wins if Betts and Martinez were on his team.
Also, why is Trout's name even being mentioned in the MVP race when his well paid club won't even have a winning season? With his grotesque salary, he is the opposite of a good value, never mind the most valuable.
Snell meanwhile is an incredible value and is worthy of the MVP as much as the Cy Young.
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