What's the latest on Kapoho area eruption now? Any afterthoughts? (Kailua: real estate, house prices)

[RobertFisher]

National media has long stopped covering the lava flow around Kapoho area. I wonder what the situation is now. Has it stopped? What is the new normal now around Puna?

It was a pretty big shock to me, as just a few months before the eruption I considered buying a house at Kapoho area (Alapai Point Place), but opted to keep waiting for something a bit less expensive. That house is now under lava.

At that time lava risk seems so distant -- you hear the perspective that it is "geological time" and the next eruption could be 10,000 years from now. But it now has already happened. Is there any new mindset about living in Puna? Are people there now wanting to get out? Or life just resume as usual at areas not covered by lava?

[terracore]

The flow ended the same year it began, 2018. In fact, everything ended. 99+% of the vog that had plagued the island since 1984 is gone. Earthquakes have been tiny. It's currently the most geologically inactive it's been in a generation.

Not sure I have an answer for the rest of your questions. Leilani was and is in Lava Zone 1. Everybody knew an eruption could be imminent at any time, but everybody who lived there gambled in the lava casino that it wouldn't happen in their lifetime. A lot of people lost. Same for everything downhill from there. I would say life is pretty much as usual. Better actually because no vog. House prices in LZ 3 are higher than they were before the eruption.

I'll take it while it lasts, but I don't have any expectations how long that will be. Somebody builds a house in a lava zone at their own peril. Personally, I would never consider LZ 1 or 2.

[hotzcatz]

I've heard the next eruption may be on the other side of the mountain. There's areas in the Southpoint and Kona areas which have had relatively recent (in geological terms) lava flows. Driving from Kawaihae to Kailua-Kona you can see the various lava flows and the different colors of the lava as they fade from sun and wind. Also the different amounts of vegetation that have grown on them over the years.

But, for the Puna area, the lava has gone, everyone has pretty much gone back to where they were pre-eruption and prices have rebounded.

With the lack of a lava lake in Halemaumau, this may signal a different type of eruption schedule than we've had for the past forty years. The island is still geologically active, but it feels like we may have a few years before we find out where the next lava outbreak will show up. BUT! I'm not a geologist and my opinion has no actual informed data behind it.

[Open-D]

Originally Posted by hotzcatz

I've heard the next eruption may be on the other side of the mountain. There's areas in the Southpoint and Kona areas which have had relatively recent (in geological terms) lava flows. Driving from Kawaihae to Kailua-Kona you can see the various lava flows and the different colors of the lava as they fade from sun and wind. Also the different amounts of vegetation that have grown on them over the years.

But, for the Puna area, the lava has gone, everyone has pretty much gone back to where they were pre-eruption and prices have rebounded.

With the lack of a lava lake in Halemaumau, this may signal a different type of eruption schedule than we've had for the past forty years. The island is still geologically active, but it feels like we may have a few years before we find out where the next lava outbreak will show up. BUT! I'm not a geologist and my opinion has no actual informed data behind it.

I was doing some research on K back then, and it seems that it has a mixed history or eruption types. Some of the type we are used to seeming with fountains of runny lava, but also, the more explosive type like Mt. St. Helens with the dreaded pyroclastic flows. You may also want to keep an eye on Mauna Loa and Huallai.

[hotzcatz]

Yup, on watching the Mauna Loa & Hualalai (Who-ah-lah-lay) volcanoes. If Hualalai goes, there's very little time to get out of the way before it reaches the ocean because it's steep. I've heard folks estimate less than two hours. Kilauea was a pretty slow moving lava flow except for 2018 with Fissure 8 lava flow. Well, it started way back in the early eighties, 1983?, with the big lava fountain, that was a flashy event with fast lava, then for four decades it was pretty much slower oozing type of flows. Then the big blow out of Fissure 8. That feels like to me - again, I'm just an interested observer and not a volcanologist - like a full lava event cycle. I don't know how long between cycles since the magma is probably down there somewhere building up pressure, but I don't know how long until it bursts out again.

[whtviper1]

Originally Posted by hotzcatz

but I don't know how long until it bursts out again.

I know. Could be today - 500 years from now - somewhere in between - or more than 500 years.

One has to decide their tolerance for risk - you win some - you lose some.

[terracore]

I'm not a geologist.

Mauna Loa typically erupts every few years, however it doesn't usually erupt when Kilauea is erupting. There is some science to support that the two volcanoes are linked and that Kilauea is like a pressure relief valve for Mauna Loa: https://www.livescience.com/24262-ki...oa-linked.html

Mauna Loa has been steadily, and slowly, reinflating for quite some time:

https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna...olcano-updates

[dobanion]

They rebuilt the highway from Pahoa down to "Four Corners" which was smack dab in the center of the main flow as it spread out just uphill from Kapoho. I drove down there recently, and the rocks are most certainly still quite warm. You can stand on a pile of rubble and see pretty much all that's left of Kapoho, which is all a barren lava field, extending hundreds of yards out over what used to be the bay.

Green Lake, inside Kapoho crater, is filled in with lava and gone forever.

They also made a road over the two little fingers of flow that cut the road down by Pohoiki, so you can drive to the park and boat ramp again. The sand and little rocks formed from the ocean entry of lava was swept south along on the coast and accumulated right there, so now the boat ramp is still there, but socked in by over a hundred yards of "beach." More like a pile of sand, then gravel, then rocks. You can see the layers that were formed over the weeks (light material came first, then the bigger stuff).

Up by Leilani it's still steaming all over the rift zone.

Leilani Estates, the untouched half, everybody looked happy to be back at home.

Hale'mau'mau has a 150 degree funny colored lake in the bottom of it. That's gonna be interesting if magma ever goes shallow again in the crater. Think BOOM.

Mauna Loa has been rumbling a lot (earthquakes), could start erupting tomorrow, or in 30 years, who knows.

The big head scratcher is a nearly constant swarm of earthquakes that are VERY deep (like 20+ miles down), just SE of Pahala. It's always been a area with lots of activity, but now it's historically "off the charts." USGS scientists have a theory that the main magma conduit for both Mauna Loa and Kilauea is down there.

And like everyone previously has mentioned, the complete lack of VOG has made the air crystal clear. You can see Kona from the highway above Milolii. That's 30+ miles line of sight, and I could see the cruise ship in the harbor.

[RobertFisher]

A few questions on the real estate of that area:

1. For the owner a house covered with lava, I suppose he/she still owns the land, just that it turned into lava surface and the house is gone?

2. Has buying and selling of properties resumed in that area?

3. What has happened to the prices of the lava covered lots? And those houses still standing?

4. Based on my research, newly grown lava land is owned by the state. Does it become something like a park for the time being?

3

[terracore]

Originally Posted by RobertFisher

A few questions on the real estate of that area:

1. For the owner a house covered with lava, I suppose he/she still owns the land, just that it turned into lava surface and the house is gone?

2. Has buying and selling of properties resumed in that area?

3. What has happened to the prices of the lava covered lots? And those houses still standing?

4. Based on my research, newly grown lava land is owned by the state. Does it become something like a park for the time being?

3

1. Yes, they still own the land but it is worthless as there is typically no legal access (other than a helicopter) because the roads are under 50 feet of lava. The county has adjusted their annual property taxes owed to nearly zero if I recall correctly (small annual fee for maintaining the record).

2. It's not prohibited but nobody wants to purchase a worthless lot with no legal access.

3. There are houses surrounded by lava that survived because the terrain allowed lava to flow around it. One of them is on the side of the road that was recently re-opened as mentioned above. Most people aren't as lucky and there isn't any way to get to the houses. As far as I know they are uninhabited and considered nearly worthless.

4. These areas are off limits because they are prone to falling into the sea. They might be black sand beach parks in a few hundred years.

Years ago there was a company that sold a house called a "lava runner" in that it could be picked up and moved when the lava came, and then redeposited on the lot when the lava had cooled. Problem of course was that with few exceptions the roads were never restored so the idea didn't take off.