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Old 04-30-2009, 03:20 PM
 
6 posts, read 11,575 times
Reputation: 10

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I'm potentially interested in buying a lot in Cahaba Heights, something to build on down the road. What would you guys pay for something around a half an acre? Thanks!
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Old 04-30-2009, 08:36 PM
 
2 posts, read 4,690 times
Reputation: 10
Nothing right now. Don't catch a falling knife. This housing downturn will last another 5-7 years at the least. Commercial real estate hasn't even crashed yet, so unless you're going to build on it now and enjoy it, just sit this one out. Patience is a virtue, and even if that lot sells I bet it'll be back on the market unless it's built on immediately. The new owner will sell it for even less.
Seriously, just wait it out. Cash is king right now. Give it a two years and you'll be amazed at what your money can buy.
When reported unemployment passes 11.5% start your property search again.
If I had to have it right now I'd pay $30,000 for a 1/2acre lot, and I'm assuming it's has or is going to have sewer access and that there won't be a big impact/connection fee or if that'll be in the taxes. I aslo assume that there is a water meter on site, and you won't be required to make any improvements should you let it sit a couple of years. Otherwise start deducting from the $30,000.
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Old 04-30-2009, 10:06 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
1,284 posts, read 2,202,665 times
Reputation: 2005
I don't know anything about housing projections, but I will say this: most of the easily buildable lots in desireable areas were built on many years ago. That means what you'll find in Vestavia will likely be partially vertical. Make sure you factor in the costs of site prep and additional foundation/structural work.
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Old 05-01-2009, 09:14 AM
 
28,906 posts, read 42,448,527 times
Reputation: 45543
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuke_ops View Post
Nothing right now. Don't catch a falling knife. This housing downturn will last another 5-7 years at the least. Commercial real estate hasn't even crashed yet, so unless you're going to build on it now and enjoy it, just sit this one out. Patience is a virtue, and even if that lot sells I bet it'll be back on the market unless it's built on immediately. The new owner will sell it for even less.
Seriously, just wait it out. Cash is king right now. Give it a two years and you'll be amazed at what your money can buy.
When reported unemployment passes 11.5% start your property search again.
If I had to have it right now I'd pay $30,000 for a 1/2acre lot, and I'm assuming it's has or is going to have sewer access and that there won't be a big impact/connection fee or if that'll be in the taxes. I aslo assume that there is a water meter on site, and you won't be required to make any improvements should you let it sit a couple of years. Otherwise start deducting from the $30,000.
Well, Birmingham has not been nearly as affected by the housing depression as other parts of the country, so your analogy really doesn't hold. What's more, considering that the area he's referring to is in Vestavia, the values have not dropped to the degree of other parts of the metro area.

$30,000 in Vestavia won't buy you squat. Nor will it.
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Old 05-01-2009, 03:56 PM
 
Location: In the Greater Birmingham area
350 posts, read 1,095,006 times
Reputation: 133
Nuke Ops doesn't have a clue of what they are talking about - 5 to 7 more year! On both coasts maybe, but not here in Birmingham. In 5 to 7 years, home values should be back to where that were prior this this housing mess we have, and if you wait until them, where's the bargain for you?

Even then, if mortgage rates start going back up again, what little you may save in housing price will be eaten up a lot more with higher interest rates

Below is the lowest and then the highest priced lots in Vestavia with a total of 55 lots in Vestavia on the market-

NOTE - I AM NOT THE LISTING AGENT FOR THESE TWO LOTS - THIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL INFO ONLY

Acreage & Lots - Lot/Lots
LP:$35,000
Addr3312 CAHABA HEIGHTS RD, #3
Acres0.38+/ VESTAVIA HILLS, AL 35243
$/Acre:$92,617.09
County Jefferson
Area: 240 LibertyPark/Vestavia
[
when resubdivided, this lot will be approx. 150x 175. very rare lot to build on in Cahaba Heights. it has been percked and approved to build. it has a beatiful wet weather creek and is in city of Vestavia Hills. Cannot beat the location just below the Summit
BestUse Residential
]--Information on this report is not guaranteed. There is no express or implied warranty by MLS of the accuracy of information which should be independently verified.--


Acreage & Lots - Acreage
LP:$510,000[/
Addr 7435 RIDGECREST COURT RD, #406
Acres 4.00+/ VESTAVIA HILLS, AL 35242
$/Acre:$127,500.00
County: Jefferson
Area 240 LibertyPark/Vestavia
Beautiful multi-acre estate lot in gated Old Overton area. Ridge top building site with wonderful views. Very private & heavily wooded
--Information on this report is not guaranteed. There is no express or implied warranty by MLS of the accuracy of information which should be independently verified.--


THE BIRMINGHAM NEWS
Real Estate’s Silver Lining"
Open any major publication or tune into any national news program and you’ll be bombarded with negative stories about the real estate housing market in America. There’s no question that the subprime lending debacle is a major event because major financial institutions fell victim to greed supported by poor lending practices. Inevitably, all this negative press affects the mood and outlook of the general public…turning massive numbers of people into pessimistic viewers of the future. However, it’s worth considering whether there’s another story or even a variation of the subprime news headlines. There are two sides to every story and there’s a silver lining in any difficult situation. It is true that the problems in the subprime market are real. For those of you who are not familiar with the term, subprime loans are loans made to people whose credit is sub-par. The trouble began as mortgage lenders offered loans that required little or no money down and payment plans that included interest only or, in some cases, less than interest only, called negative amortization loans. Loans often included ‘teaser’ rates…interest rates below prevailing market rates. What the mortgage lenders counted on was continuous rising home values that would bail out home buyers and cover the lending institution’s risks. But, the lenders’ bet did not pay off and has cost them millions or billions of dollars and left hundreds of thousands of new homeowners in financial peril as their mortgage payments rise under their adjustable rate plans. The subprime market is clearly in difficulty but what about the rest of the real estate market? [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]"The media often paints an accurate but broad-brush picture…akin to a national weather forecast. However, weather is local in nature and the real estate fundamentals for the Birmingham area remain strong", says Ty Dodge, President and COO of Realty South, Alabama’s largest real estate sales company. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]"From a historical perspective, 2009 will likely be the second or third best year in Birmingham for real estate sales", Mr. Dodge adds. Home prices remain fairly stable; unemployment is among the lowest rate in the country; and mortgage rates are extremely competitive. "For people who should have been buying homes all along, it’s still a good time to buy", says Matt Bearden of 1[/SIZE][/SIZE]
[SIZE=1][SIZE=1]st [/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=3][SIZE=3]American Bank. Current mortgage rates for both a 30-year and 15-year mortgage range from 4.50% to 5.00%, near historical lows. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]For those of you who are considering buying a new home, now may be one of the best buying opportunities. "I can’t remember a time in my 33 years as a homebuilder where there was more selection and such affordable prices as right now…and as is bound to happen in the not too distant future, the pendulum will start swinging the other way…meaning decreased selection and increased home prices," states Ed Anderson, Vice President of Gibson & Anderson Construction. [/SIZE]





[SIZE=3][LEFT]So let’s review the positives: [/LEFT]
  1. Employment and the economy remain strong in Birmingham.
  2. Mortgage rates remain near historical lows.
  3. Home prices remain stable in the Birmingham area.
  4. If you are a buyer, you have great selection across virtually all of the Birmingham area communities.
These same facts are true for many communities throughout the United States. Check your ‘local weather’. You may just find a rosy forecast for buying real estate right now.

Last edited by Back Again; 05-01-2009 at 04:11 PM..
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Old 05-15-2009, 07:46 AM
 
2 posts, read 4,690 times
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Well, Birmingham has not been nearly as affected by the housing depression as other parts of the country, so your analogy really doesn't hold. What's more, considering that the area he's referring to is in Vestavia, the values have not dropped to the degree of other parts of the metro area.
$30,000 in Vestavia won't buy you squat. Nor will it.
Quote:
Nuke Ops doesn't have a clue of what they are talking about - 5 to 7 more year! On both coasts maybe, but not here in Birmingham. In 5 to 7 years, home values should be back to where that were prior this this housing mess we have, and if you wait until them, where's the bargain for you?

Even then, if mortgage rates start going back up again, what little you may save in housing price will be eaten up a lot more with higher interest rates

Below is the lowest and then the highest priced lots in Vestavia with a total of 55 lots in Vestavia on the market

LP:$35,000
Addr3312 CAHABA HEIGHTS RD, #3
Acres0.38+/ VESTAVIA HILLS, AL 35243
$/Acre:$92,617.09
County Jefferson
Area: 240 LibertyPark/Vestavia
[
when resubdivided, this lot will be approx. 150x 175. very rare lot to build on in Cahaba Heights. it has been percked and approved to build. it has a beatiful wet weather creek and is in city of Vestavia Hills. Cannot beat the location just below the Summit
BestUse Residential
OK, first off for the Short Bus window lickers B'ham will see a significant erosion in home prices, count on it.
Second, in the posted listing for the lot above the price is pretty damn close to what I described in my theoretical example, but I have no clue what I'm talking about and $30,000 won't buy you squat in Vestavia.
Third, yes I do think that interest rates will rise, and rather significantly for that matter. What do you think will happen to home values in interest rates were at 7.99% for a prime borrower with 20% down?
Higher interest rate = Higher debt Service Cost (monthly payment) = Lower qualified purchase amount.
The cost of higher interest rates on monthly payments is significant and will cut directly into sales prices, especially in a soft housing market. Now entertain yourself with the thoughts of how many homes would sell in the next three months if 20% down were required, and what the sale price of those homes would be. Once we get through this bailout BS there will be a return to normal mortgage lending practices. Normal meaning 20% down, unless your a first time homeowner then maybe 10%.
Price discovery has been put-off by Federal Bailouts, but it won't go away until this deflationary cycle has run it's course.
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Old 05-15-2009, 08:50 AM
 
28,906 posts, read 42,448,527 times
Reputation: 45543
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuke_ops View Post
OK, first off for the Short Bus window lickers B'ham will see a significant erosion in home prices, count on it.
Second, in the posted listing for the lot above the price is pretty damn close to what I described in my theoretical example, but I have no clue what I'm talking about and $30,000 won't buy you squat in Vestavia.
Third, yes I do think that interest rates will rise, and rather significantly for that matter. What do you think will happen to home values in interest rates were at 7.99% for a prime borrower with 20% down?
Higher interest rate = Higher debt Service Cost (monthly payment) = Lower qualified purchase amount.
The cost of higher interest rates on monthly payments is significant and will cut directly into sales prices, especially in a soft housing market. Now entertain yourself with the thoughts of how many homes would sell in the next three months if 20% down were required, and what the sale price of those homes would be. Once we get through this bailout BS there will be a return to normal mortgage lending practices. Normal meaning 20% down, unless your a first time homeowner then maybe 10%.
Price discovery has been put-off by Federal Bailouts, but it won't go away until this deflationary cycle has run it's course.
Look, I know you've cribbed all this stuff from various web sites, but you've forgotten the most important law of economics: Supply and demand. If we're talking about vacant lots within the city limits of Vestavia, then you're talking about a very scarce commodity. And as the metro area continues to grow, more people will want to live within the Vestavia city limits. You will not see a radical drop in prices within the Vestavia city limits beyond what has already happened. In fact, with the current economic policy of the country, I'm fairly certain that we'll be seeing inflation, not deflation. And while some of what you write may be true of South Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California, where new home inventories totally outstripped demand, that simply hasn't happened to that degree in this market.
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Old 05-15-2009, 11:49 AM
 
Location: In the Greater Birmingham area
350 posts, read 1,095,006 times
Reputation: 133
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
Look, I know you've cribbed all this stuff from various web sites, but you've forgotten the most important law of economics: Supply and demand. If we're talking about vacant lots within the city limits of Vestavia, then you're talking about a very scarce commodity. And as the metro area continues to grow, more people will want to live within the Vestavia city limits. You will not see a radical drop in prices within the Vestavia city limits beyond what has already happened. In fact, with the current economic policy of the country, I'm fairly certain that we'll be seeing inflation, not deflation. And while some of what you write may be true of South Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California, where new home inventories totally outstripped demand, that simply hasn't happened to that degree in this market.
Well Put! Wish I would have wrote it
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Old 05-16-2009, 12:33 PM
 
6 posts, read 11,575 times
Reputation: 10
Thanks for all of your responses! For now, we've decided to pass on the lot. You guys are great; thanks again!
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Old 06-01-2009, 03:23 AM
 
8 posts, read 19,346 times
Reputation: 13
You will probably find lots in the vestavia Hills area to be very high as it has a desired school system, one of the best in the state. And also the neighborhood there the most part have a low crime rate. And the prettier lots mostly already have houses on them...but you probably could find a few nice lots. No telling what the lots will cost!
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