El Nino is likely, and it could be very powerful next winter (Bell: tax, airplane)

[saibot]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

What people don't seem to realize is that it's not a permanent fix. El Nino comes, el Nino goes, and then it's back to the drought.

So...you know for a fact that SoCal will remain in permanent drought?

We have a few dry years or warmer years (or wet years or colder years, whatever) and people start babbling about the "new normal," as though every little change is going to be FOREVER.

[2sleepy]

I really believed that it was going to rain when I started following this thread and bought covers for my patio furniture. It rained for about 3 minutes and we covered all the furniture, I think I need to take the covers off so it will rain again

[JGC97]

. . . or wash your car. That works every time.

[Des-Lab]

"It's here".

Based on WHAT?

Another PowerPoint chart? ("look at this terrifying chart! The chart says.....")

I think everyone can shove their "charts".

The water is a degree warmer?

For those of us who live in the REAL world, neither of those mean diddly schidt. I have yet to see any change.

It's not that I don't have some faith in science. It's just that I place a lot more trust in what I see looking out the window than I do looking at my laptop monitor.

[Mr. Rossi]

Here is a recent (posted yesterday) summary by NOAA of predicted El Nino impacts in CA: https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...winter-outlook

[sourdough]

this El Nino won't help the drought and could do more harm than good, was published yesterday …. This Devastating Chart Shows Why Even a Powerful El Niño Won

[NativeOrange]

Originally Posted by Des-Lab

"It's here".

Based on WHAT?

Another PowerPoint chart? ("look at this terrifying chart! The chart says.....")

I think everyone can shove their "charts".

The water is a degree warmer?

For those of us who live in the REAL world, neither of those mean diddly schidt. I have yet to see any change.

It's not that I don't have some faith in science. It's just that I place a lot more trust in what I see looking out the window than I do looking at my laptop monitor.

It's here based on the fact that water in key points of the western Equatorial Pacific are at levels that highly exceed the standard for what is considered El Niño. A degree warmer? That has a huge effect on the atmosphere above, and water is actually already almost 2.5 degrees CELSIUS above normal. That's massive, seeing as it only needs to be 0.5 above to be considered El Niño.

This isn't some subjective reasoning, El Niño is here. Just because it isn't raining on your lawn right now doesn't change that fact. Have a little patience, it's not even our rainy season yet. I don't exactly know what you mean when you say "PowerPoint chart", as I have yet to see any sort of El Niño recordings done with such a novel program. All you have to do is look at SST maps of the Pacific Ocean.

Are you under the impression that El Niño only affects CA? Because ask anyone in Australia, Central America, Southeast Asia, or South America right now they have felt the affects of El Niño and it would be a resounding yes.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by NativeOrange

This isn't some subjective reasoning, El Niño is here. Just because it isn't raining on your lawn right now doesn't change that fact.

True.
El Niño keeps getting stronger; new forecast for rain increases - LA Times

[sourdough]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

True.
El Niño keeps getting stronger; new forecast for rain increases - LA Times

This is not good news. By that chart it looks like only a 50/50 chance the Northern half of California will get relief above normal. I've read it will take 4 years of above normal to correct the drought effects back to normal. A normal snow pack in the Sierras does little to help beyond what the conditions are now. Less than normal, the the drought worsens.

[CA4Now]

Pretty frightening.
L.A. County mudslides trap numerous cars; searchers look for trapped drivers - LA Times