is So Cal going to have hurricanes in the future? (Linda: beach, best)

[TristramShandy]

I was with the kids at Pacific Beach this morning/afternoon. Water temperature was 78 degrees, which is 10 degrees warmer than the average on this date.

If this is the new norm, is So Cal in danger of having hurricanes in the future like the East Coast has?

[vdy1985]

No

[TristramShandy]

Originally Posted by vdy1985

No

Because . . . ?

[wac_432]

Offshore water temperatures just can't support hurricanes, no matter how warm it gets at the beach.

The Pacific circulation would have to stop or reverse, first, and that's like a 10,000 year process.

Also, the prevailing winds tend to push Hurricanes out to sea. Recurves at our lattitude are rare.

The best we can hope for is tropical moisture over the mountains drifting to the beaches. Scattered thunderstorms and some extra precipitation (measured in fractions of inches). Don't count on any widespread storm-force winds and feet of rain.

[sav858]

They probably will make it more possible. But even then the trajectory of most hurricanes and tropical storms that form off the coast of Mexico is westward towards Hawaii. Some tropical systems do get pushed towards Southern CA occasionally, the warmer waters will probably make them less likely to fall apart as they usually do now. A tropical storm and hurricane has hit Southern CA before so I don't see why it can't again, especially if these warmer water temps become normal. If it happens again it would probably be a weaker Category 1 at worst. The waters aren't that warm plus a tropical storm/hurricane would pull up colder water from below.

[Tulemutt]

Couple of you are really pouring cold water on the fun of yet another “potential California demise” thread.

[Psychoma]

Yep, as was said warm at the beach but large scale too cold for hurricanes offshore compared to East coast. Tropical systems like 26/27C degree water (78-80F) or warmer, under that they fall apart or don't usually form.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

Previous So Cal tropical system tracks. Were still classified as tropical, others the fell apart not shown, can see interactive map here: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[Finper]

We can't even get rain here and you're worried about hurricanes??

[citizensadvocate]

I remember back in 1997 which was a strong El Nino year Hurricane Linda which once reached Cat 5 superstorm speeds off Baja California Sur actually was forecasted to landfall SoCal at possible Cat 1 levels and its remnants were expected to track up the entire length of the state and toward Oregon. Though it turned away due to a high pressure system that developed unexpectantly but it still brought wind and rain from its outer fringes all the way up to the grapevine. Another Hurricane, Nora, actually went up Gulf of California and hit California at tropical storm strength but weakened rapidly as it hit in a desert area, still brought quite a bit of wind and rain though to much of SoCal, AZ, and Utah though not much different from a typical winter storm system.

I remembered summer of 1997 was hot and humid throughout California and resembled a east coast summer and water temperatures were warm compared to normal summer. And normally cooler waters is what weakened tropical systems that track up from Baja turning it into traditional summer thunderstorms. But when waters were that warm it provides fuel to storms heading north.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by Finper

We can't even get rain here and you're worried about hurricanes??

Lol.