The Great California Exodus Accelerates (Los Angeles, San Francisco: 2013, apartments, condos)

[ttboy]

The Great California Exodus Accelerates

California may be the most populous state in the Union, but it could transform into the exodus capital of America. The Golden State has witnessed its population stall, declining slightly from 39.96 million to 39.78 million in the second half of 2019, according to the Department of Finance.

Growth has slowed close to zero or even declined in most coastal counties. The San Francisco Bay Area advanced, and counties east of Los Angeles witnessed modest growth. However, Los Angeles County shed residents for the second consecutive year in 2019. It is unclear how severe the population drop is in the aftermath of the Coronavirus pandemic and the state government’s proposed tax hikes.

Contrary to internet mythos, it is not only high-income earners who are packing up their things and saying goodbye to Newsom. Studies, including one from the Public Policy Institute of California and another by the Empire Center for Public Policy, have found that poorer households are more likely to flee than their affluent counterparts. But considering the policing being proposed or enacted, it is safe to say that the wealthy have no reason to be some of the left-behinds.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...us-accelerates

[Tulemutt]

You say this as if it is a bad thing, OP?

“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of a cancer cell.” - Edward Abbey

[wac_432]

Contrary to internet mythos, it is not only high-income earners who are packing up their things and saying goodbye to Newsom. Studies, including one from the Public Policy Institute of California and another by the Empire Center for Public Policy, have found that poorer households are more likely to flee than their affluent counterparts. But considering the policing being proposed or enacted, it is safe to say that the wealthy have no reason to be some of the left-behinds.

This is the strangest bit of double-speak I've read in a while. It uses a few extra words to say "studies show that only poor people are leaving, but I think that rich people should leave too."

That's all well and good, but being in favor of something because of your political stripe does not make it a fact. Casual observation clearly indicates that rich people care more about living somewhere nice rather than saving a few thousand a year in extra taxes by living in some crappy inland state.

My coastal town is BOOMING despite COVID-19. I'd say that at least 80% of the complaints on Nextdoor are about the masses of new apartments, townhomes, and condos that are going in, and the percieved explosion in traffic that old-timers are sure will follow. They're not wrong. 5-8 years ago, the town was a sleepy little burg with almost no construction. Weed-filled lots downtown attracted bums, and the surf breaks had a lot of that old laid-back California blue-collar vibe. Now almost every empty lot has a MAJOR construction project going on. The newly-finished condos have signs indicating they are "Starting from the mid-700's" ... This is for a 1 BEDROOM condo!! It is absolutely bonkers.

Years ago, the majority of neighborhood complaints would be about drug deals, abandoned vehicles, and occasional gunshots. Now people are griping about "1st-world-problems" like the banner aircraft flying overhead, or the converted school bus with a group of surf bums that takes up two spots in the surfer parking lot. That used to be the ATTRACTION of our town. Now the hordes of dot-com millionaire newcomers think its an eyesore!

I remember visiting Del Mar years ago, seeing the stratospheric gentrification of an old SoCal beach town and thinking "this isn't so bad. Wish I had bought a house here before the boom." Well, I astutely did purchase some CA coastal realestate and the boom has continued to roll up the coasts unabated. Despite all the flyover country carpetbagging whining from those who can barely manage a CA vacation, let alone living in paradise, CA is simply exploding in popularity amongst the wealthy.

I've watched my town transition from a sleepy blue-collar beach town to... well... Del Mar. If you haven't been, go check it out. Greasy spoons replaced by haute cuisine, empty downtown storefronts filled with microbreweries, aerial yoga studios, fancy furniture/curio shops. Weed-filled lots now towering condos with shiny new playgrounds. Graffiti and the clunky smoking Mallard RV's of beach bums have been replaced with commissioned murals and $150K airstream trailers of techy yupsters.

There's still a few HA choppers and straight-pipe lifted pickups around, but they are rapidly being outnumbered by spandex-clad weekenders on pedal bicycles that cost twice as much as a Harley and Tesla ModelX's.

Unlike the long-term locals, I'm not worried that my children won't be able to afford to live in my town when they grow up. I KNOW they won't--unless I move out and give them the house, or they write the latest killer app at 19. Kids should move out and make their own way in the world.

Anyway, until we all cash out of paradise, we're going to enjoy all the perks of fancy folks moving into town, not to mention the better roads, police, parks, libraries, etc. that their taxes pay for when they buy that $40,000 1960's tract home that's been flipped, reassesssed, and is now taxed at a value of $890,000!

It's not like this is only happening to the sleepy beach towns, either. My old haunts in the city proper are just unrecognizable. I used to live in the seedy parts of LA to save money, now I can't even find the seedy spots--unless you count the freeway overpasses crammed with homeless tents displaced from the empty lots and back alleys of the places that have gentrified. Places downtown that used to be a "no-go" zone after sunset are now micro-Whole Foods markets with well-to-do patrons wandering about day and night. I'm not just talking about RAT or Manhattan Beach, but down by Staples Center and even the Grand Central/Chinatown/Echo Park triangle of doom.

Losing population or not, California is transforming into the land of the haves. I can't think of a single place that's gone anywhere but up in the last decade. I haven't been to SF in quite a while, so maybe. However, with all the untrue tales of LA's slide into "chaos" I take the carpetbaggers' denigration of SF with a healthy grain of salt until I go see for myself.

[vunderbar]

Oh good grief. Someone's been writing articles like this since California was first discovered. Back in the early 90's I remember a French magazine with its cover story "California: the end of the dream" The end? Ha. Fast forward thirty years and it still attracts well-to-do, highly educated people.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-...221-story.html

[Veritas Vincit]

Originally Posted by vunderbar

Oh good grief. Someone's been writing articles like this since California was first discovered. Back in the early 90's I remember a French magazine with its cover story "California: the end of the dream" The end? Ha. Fast forward thirty years and it still attracts well-to-do, highly educated people.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-...221-story.html

Well in many ways the late 80s/early 90s recession did mark the end of California's status as the ultimate destination state. To give you an idea, CA started with 2 representatives in 1850. By 1870 that number had grown to 4 (+2), by 1890 it was 7 (+3), by 1910 it was 11 (+4), by 1930 it was 20 (+9), by 1950 it was 30 (+10), by 1970 it was 43 (+13), by 1990 it was 52 (+9) since then it's grown to 53 (+1). So you went from adding around 10 congressmen every 20 years to all but stagnation since 1990.


That recession really hurt the manufacturing sector in the state and also shortly thereafter saw closures of significant military facilities such as Fort Ord and Castle AFB and several others in the state. Unemployment nearly doubled between 1989 and 1993. While that came down again in the late 90s a lot of the specific jobs that had gone never came back.

[Losfrisco]

Originally Posted by ttboy

The Great California Exodus Accelerates

California may be the most populous state in the Union, but it could transform into the exodus capital of America. The Golden State has witnessed its population stall, declining slightly from 39.96 million to 39.78 million in the second half of 2019, according to the Department of Finance.

Growth has slowed close to zero or even declined in most coastal counties. The San Francisco Bay Area advanced, and counties east of Los Angeles witnessed modest growth. However, Los Angeles County shed residents for the second consecutive year in 2019. It is unclear how severe the population drop is in the aftermath of the Coronavirus pandemic and the state government’s proposed tax hikes.

Contrary to internet mythos, it is not only high-income earners who are packing up their things and saying goodbye to Newsom. Studies, including one from the Public Policy Institute of California and another by the Empire Center for Public Policy, have found that poorer households are more likely to flee than their affluent counterparts. But considering the policing being proposed or enacted, it is safe to say that the wealthy have no reason to be some of the left-behinds.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...us-accelerates

Wake me up when Los Angeles loses a million residents and San Francisco loses 500,000 residents over the course of a few decades. Population loss on this scale ACTUALLY HAPPENED in rust belt cities and I doubt anyone ever called that a "mass exodus".

Population loss in CA is just minor corrections, there is no mass exodus, nor has there ever been in U.S. history. Some of the fastest growing places in the nation are in the CA inland desert. Are they not part of California? All ever hear about is people "fleeing" small portions of two municipalities in a massive state. Its pretty obvious the desire for a "California mass exodus" news narrative is much stronger than the facts available to support it.


There is actually a story out now about a famous actor who "fled" Los Angeles.....for Simi Valley (an adjacent county within easy commute time of showbiz).

https://pagesix.com/2020/10/10/josh-...e-los-angeles/

If a celeb buys a second home outside of CA (a completely normal thing to do), another "fleeing" themed article will probably pop up somewhere. Its all made up nonsense.

[Ruth4Truth]

The Empire Center for Public Policy is a New York=based think tank that focusses on NY. Their pronouncements don't address California.
From Wiki:

The Empire Center for Public Policy is a fiscally-conservative think tank and government-watchdog group based in Albany, New York.

The Empire Center was founded in 2005 as a project of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. In 2013, the Empire Center was spun off from the Manhattan Institute, becoming an independent nonprofit organization. The Center's stated mission is to "Make New York a better place to live and work by promoting public policy reforms grounded in free-market principles, personal responsibility, and the ideals of effective and accountable government."

Sounds vaguely Libertarian.

The Public Policy Institute of California is based in SF, and is a non-partisan think tank.

[BGS91762]

Can’t wait to drive the freeway freely and go to the beach without the crowds. Please hurry up and LEAVE!

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by vunderbar

Oh good grief. Someone's been writing articles like this since California was first discovered. Back in the early 90's I remember a French magazine with its cover story "California: the end of the dream" The end? Ha. Fast forward thirty years and it still attracts well-to-do, highly educated people.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-...221-story.html

Les Francais are just jealous, because we have better beaches and we have redwoods. For now, at least. And we grow better artichokes than they do.

[AquaTee]

Oh boy, an article from Zero Hedge about California.