The Great California Exodus Accelerates (middle-class, houses, wages)

[Hemlock140]

My retired brother (was a state employee) and his wife are leaving CA and moving to Oregon, their house just sold. I still have three brothers and one sister, plus several other relatives there, who are not planning to leave.

[saybanana]

I wish 10 million people leave, that would drive down rents and home prices.

In my area, a gentrifying area of Los Angeles, a lot of the newcomers moving in with many being east coast transplants.
These people are mixed with younger 20 somethings moving into higher priced apartments while 30s-50s year old established professionals moving into homes. I cant think of any young children families moving in. So they are singles, couples with disposable money. The people that lived in these homes for decades were primarily immigrant families who raised their children until they left for college or started own families elsewhere. I can see how a population can shrink especially in expensive counties. An immigrant household of 4-6 people now houses 1-2 east coast transplants. This is repeated all over California's most expensive areas. So things can be deceiving when just looking at population loss or flatness.

[Ultrarunner]

SF Chronicle story SF rents steepest decline in US

Studio down 31%, One Bedroom down 24% and 21% for Two Bedroom... year over year.

Santa Clara and San Mateo are in the top 4 nationwide for decline...

[aloha415]

We've talked about moving out of state recently - not because of politics or taxes but because of the wildfire smoke. I'm a long time SF resident (20 plus years) originally from Los Angeles, now with 2 kids under 5. Things that are absolutely important to us as a family is somewhere with a liberal majority, diverse enough, good schools, and economic opportunity. I haven't found anywhere I'd really like to move to other than Oahu (or maybe Maui) and possibly a suburb close to NYC.



In terms of people relocating, I've noticed that people who can afford it are buying second homes (Tahoe, Marin, Sonoma County). Those that are making less income are switching apartments with cheaper rent or moving out of state. If you want to buy a condo there are tons right now on the market that have reduced pricing. Yes, I am a realtor if you haven't guessed already.

[Ultrarunner]

My sister-in-law is looking for Bay Area vibe anywhere but the Bay Area... currently looking into Canada.

[aslowdodge]

Originally Posted by Racer46

Proof?


Remember the State never drops taxes.

Reminds me of the bay bridge toll that was just to pay for the bridge and since it went up,and pays for other things too. It always just went up.

[stone26]

If all these people are leaving CA, why is there still such a shortage of housing? Someone a few posts up said their relative just sold their house to move out of state. The fact that their house sold is a sign that the population of CA is overall well. When we start seeing mass amounts of empty homes, or homes going unsold... that’s when I’ll start worrying. But right now, a completely dilapidated, uninhabitable house on a tiny lot across the street from me just sold for $150,000. It will take at least $100,000 to make that house livable. Whoever bought it will likely have to knock it down and rebuild completely. And yet it received numerous offers on it’s first day. When things like this stop happening, and when houses go unsold, I’lll start worrying. In the meantime, I wish those seeking adventure elsewhere good luck.

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by BGS91762

Exactly. The exodus story is just a way for a political party to justify its story.

Exactly, it's just porn for conservative Republicans who also happen to be literate.

[aloha415]

Originally Posted by stone26

If all these people are leaving CA, why is there still such a shortage of housing? Someone a few posts up said their relative just sold their house to move out of state. The fact that their house sold is a sign that the population of CA is overall well. When we start seeing mass amounts of empty homes, or homes going unsold... that’s when I’ll start worrying. But right now, a completely dilapidated, uninhabitable house on a tiny lot across the street from me just sold for $150,000. It will take at least $100,000 to make that house livable. Whoever bought it will likely have to knock it down and rebuild completely. And yet it received numerous offers on it’s first day. When things like this stop happening, and when houses go unsold, I’lll start worrying. In the meantime, I wish those seeking adventure elsewhere good luck.

Yep. SF has definitely seen a "readjustment" in home and rental pricing but I have noticed that people are trading up homes as well. Since WFH, buyers are looking for more space, turn key, and a functional floor plan. Down the street from me, a single family home with an ADU unit was sold $8 million plus last month. On the other hand, 3 single family homes on my street have just been listed recently.


Edit: I need to also mention that those 3 homes are likely to sell quickly from what I'm seeing in my particular neighborhood which is filled with young families and a short walking distance to many amenities. California had always seen an influx of new residents and people who are ready to be somewhere else. Point is people who were already thinking about moving before covid/SIP are the ones likely to move. The five year plan has turned into the 6 month plan.

[sub]

Originally Posted by stone26

If all these people are leaving CA, why is there still such a shortage of housing? Someone a few posts up said their relative just sold their house to move out of state. The fact that their house sold is a sign that the population of CA is overall well. When we start seeing mass amounts of empty homes, or homes going unsold... that’s when I’ll start worrying. But right now, a completely dilapidated, uninhabitable house on a tiny lot across the street from me just sold for $150,000. It will take at least $100,000 to make that house livable. Whoever bought it will likely have to knock it down and rebuild completely. And yet it received numerous offers on it’s first day. When things like this stop happening, and when houses go unsold, I’lll start worrying. In the meantime, I wish those seeking adventure elsewhere good luck.

There’s a housing shortage pretty much everywhere right now.
I live in a midwestern town with almost 0 growth and houses get snatched up as soon as they hit the market.

To address the poster who tried to use traffic as some sort of indicator, no offense but Detroit still has ridiculous traffic.

Originally Posted by apple92680

Exactly, it's just porn for conservative Republicans who also happen to be literate.

No, the exodus is a fact. Like I said earlier, you still have just enough incoming to offset those who leave, but California is no longer the fast-growing magnet it once was. It used to be really appealing, but not so much anymore.