California’s Budget Black Hole: Where Did the $97.5 Billion Surplus Go? (Bakersfield: sales, house)

[urbancuriosity]

From a huge surplus to a budget deficit. Unbelievable.

https://californiaglobe.com/articles...on-surplus-go/

[JGC97]

I didn't see it listed in the article you posted but there was also the loss to the EDD from fraudulent claims during the pandemic. At first the amount was around 22 billion but according to a KCRA report from this past October, the numbers are closer to 32.6 billion. Maybe that would account for some of it? I know the governor and lawmakers like to spend money like there's no tomorrow but without knowing fully where exactly all the money is going, it's anyone's guess.

https://www.kcra.com/article/analysi...nting/41281662

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by urbancuriosity

From a huge surplus to a budget deficit. Unbelievable.

Not really.

"Newsom was immensely lucky that fellow Democrats controlled the federal government the last two years. President Biden and Congress showered California with tens of billions in economic aid, enough for the governor to avoid a budget crisis this winter.

In all, Newsom said, California has received $48 billion from two major federal bills: the $700-billion Inflation Reduction Act and the $1.2-trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Much of the money was distributed to local governments and private entities.

Newsom also was lucky to govern in good economic times. Until very recently, the state treasury continually overflowed with tax revenue. Unlike predecessors Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Newsom hasn’t had to gut popular state programs to balance the books, angering political allies..."

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-governor-ever

[Thekdog]

Budget very dependent on capital gains tax receipts, and the market is down

[shelato]

The State of California's budget is very procyclical. During booms because the stae income tax is quite progressive, tax reciepts can be very strong because either the housing market or the stock market is doing well. In the bay area especially redeeming stock options often drives housing prices. Right now high interest rates are causing layoffs at tech firms and both the stock market and the housing market have stalled out. Sales tax reciepts also fall during recessions. At the same time demand for state govenment services goes down during booms but explodes when tax receipts fall. Unemployment costs, but also people going back to college increases during recessions. Also demand for food stamps and medical increases during recessions. Jerry Brown in his second go around as governor tried to goven as more of a budget moderate and spent a lot of his time trying to increase the states financial reserves to get through bad years.

Newsom governed as much more of a progressive than Jerry Brown in Brown's second go around as governor. During boom times, California functions as a progressive state, but during recessions, that is when progressive governance can falter. Gray Davis was impeached and Jerry Brown's first go around as governor faltered when California had budget problems during recessions.

Newsom is a talented politician. So far in terms of raw political talent, I think he is probably a stronger candidate than either than either Biden or Kamala Harris as the best Democratic candidate for President currently, but California budget problems could derail his candidacy for President. The progressives control all three branches of state government right now, so we will see how good of a politician he really is.

[Ruth4Truth]

$1.2-trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

I'm curious about this. How has this been applied in CA? What have been the results? Same question nation-wide.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

I'm curious about this. How has this been applied in CA? What have been the results?

I don't think we know if the funds have been allocated yet; the bill was signed in November.

California will receive about $45.5 billion from the infrastructure improvement legislation that Congress approved last week, which sounds like a lot of money.

From a relative standpoint, however, California’s allocation is small. At just over $1,200 per Californian, it’s one of the lowest of any state. States with relatively small populations, such as Alaska and Vermont, benefit the most on a per-resident basis.

Two-thirds of California’s share, about $30 billion over five years, is reserved for repairing roads, highways and bridges and we can certainly use it because, as the White House breakdown observes, “For decades, infrastructure in California has suffered from a systemic lack of investment.”

https://calmatters.org/commentary/20...tructure-bill/

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by shelato

The State of California's budget is very procyclical. During booms because the stae income tax is quite progressive, tax reciepts can be very strong because either the housing market or the stock market is doing well. In the bay area especially redeeming stock options often drives housing prices. Right now high interest rates are causing layoffs at tech firms and both the stock market and the housing market have stalled out. Sales tax reciepts also fall during recessions. At the same time demand for state govenment services goes down during booms but explodes when tax receipts fall. Unemployment costs, but also people going back to college increases during recessions. Also demand for food stamps and medical increases during recessions. Jerry Brown in his second go around as governor tried to goven as more of a budget moderate and spent a lot of his time trying to increase the states financial reserves to get through bad years.

Newsom governed as much more of a progressive than Jerry Brown in Brown's second go around as governor. During boom times, California functions as a progressive state, but during recessions, that is when progressive governance can falter. Gray Davis was impeached and Jerry Brown's first go around as governor faltered when California had budget problems during recessions.

Newsom is a talented politician. So far in terms of raw political talent, I think he is probably a stronger candidate than either than either Biden or Kamala Harris as the best Democratic candidate for President currently, but California budget problems could derail his candidacy for President. The progressives control all three branches of state government right now, so we will see how good of a politician he really is.

I can't rep you again but wanted to say that's a very good summary & pretty much spot on

[njbiodude]

Originally Posted by shelato

Newsom is a talented politician. So far in terms of raw political talent, I think he is probably a stronger candidate than either than either Biden or Kamala Harris as the best Democratic candidate for President currently, but California budget problems could derail his candidacy for President. The progressives control all three branches of state government right now, so we will see how good of a politician he really is.

Newsom had the worst covid policies in the US and helped abet school closures in many areas that were 1.5 years. He cancelled the main high speed rail line within a month of starting as governor and just decided to complete a segment from Bakersfield to Modesto just to give the unions something to work. He’s horrible with the budget and kowtows to public sector unions far too much.

He faced a recall and only got 58% of the popular vote in the 2022 election—a really low margin for a CA Democrat. Brian Dahle his opponent didn’t even graduate college and had never been in any serious government role and still managed over 40% of the popular vote. Newsom is extremely unpopular outside of CA.

Pete Buttigieg for example would be far more popular nationwide. So would Cory Booker or a host of other younger somewhat moderate Democrats. Newsom almost certainly wouldn’t get past the primaries as he is viewed as a patronizing coastal elite.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by njbiodude

Newsom had the worst covid policies in the US and helped abet school closures in many areas that were 1.5 years.

Link?

Most were open for the fall 2020 semester.
https://calmatters.org/education/202...gs-california/

And even when the Omicron wave hit, most CA public schools remained open.
Despite Stricter COVID Restrictions, California's Schools Remained Open Amid Mass Closures:
https://www.newsweek.com/despite-str...osures-1667459

Originally Posted by njbiodude

He cancelled the main high speed rail line within a month of starting as governor

From May, 2019: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration said on Thursday it was formally cancelling $929 million in previously awarded funding for California’s high-speed rail program after rejecting an appeal by the state.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1SM2F9

Originally Posted by njbiodude

He faced a recall and only got 58% of the popular vote in the 2022 election—a really low margin for a CA Democrat.

Of the 12.8 million voters who participated in the recall election, 61.9% voted to retain Newsom, and 38.1% voted to recall. For the Nov. 2022 election results: Newsom: 59.2%, Dahle: 40.8%.

https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/10...al-votes-cast/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-governor.html