LAKEVIEW CRIME WAVE CONTINUES: 7 robbed overnight by gun (Chicago, Time: crime rates, military)

[thegrid]

Originally Posted by ChicagoMeO

Also in general this world has gotten more liberal in a bad way. Old fashioned morals are slowly being eroded, and this is what the young folk are shown examples of. wish we could go back to some of the old fashioned morals which taught respect, i.e. teachers are being disrespected and if the teacher disciplines the kid, the teacher is told that is unconstitutional or something.

LOL at equating liberals with the erosion of morality. did you get that from the 700 Club or something?

the situation only has a little to do with politics, in my opinion. But it mostly has to do with crappy parents having crappy children, which propagates crappy culture. It's a cultural death spiral. Dig?

the conservative notion that the past was a golden era of morals and upstanding citizens is nonsense. humans have always been crappy throughout all of history; when we are good people, that's the exception.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by thegrid

LOL at equating liberals with the erosion of morality. did you get that from the 700 Club or something?

the situation only has a little to do with politics, in my opinion. But it mostly has to do with crappy parents having crappy children, which propagates crappy culture. It's a cultural death spiral. Dig?

the conservative notion that the past was a golden era of morals and upstanding citizens is nonsense. humans have always been crappy throughout all of history; when we are good people, that's the exception.

Please, no need for rational thought to be introduced to the discussion.

[Wicket]

Originally Posted by thegrid

LOL at equating liberals with the erosion of morality. did you get that from the 700 Club or something?

the situation only has a little to do with politics, in my opinion. But it mostly has to do with crappy parents having crappy children, which propagates crappy culture. It's a cultural death spiral. Dig?

the conservative notion that the past was a golden era of morals and upstanding citizens is nonsense. humans have always been crappy throughout all of history; when we are good people, that's the exception.

Some would argue liberals enable that crappy culture through entitlements and cries of racism whenever it's criticized.

[Irishtom29]

Originally Posted by Wicket

Some would argue liberals enable that crappy culture through entitlements and cries of racism whenever it's criticized.

Those aren't real liberals. Real liberals want work for all and workers treated well with the right to organize but nothing for those who won't work. The safety net should be for those who fell on their ass and are getting back up, not for those who never got up off their ass in the first place.

[mjtinmemphis]

Originally Posted by Irishtom29

The safety net should be for those who fell on their ass and are getting back up, not for those who never got up off their ass in the first place.

I agree! You have a way with words.

[Wicket]

Originally Posted by Irishtom29

Those aren't real liberals. Real liberals want work for all and workers treated well with the right to organize but nothing for those who won't work. The safety net should be for those who fell on their ass and are getting back up, not for those who never got up off their ass in the first place.

Fake liberals outnumber real ones by a pretty large margin.

[ptug101]

I work in statistics the whole Black people are having kids out of wedlock is a statically misleading myth kind of like the more Black men in jail than college myth.

Alot of conservatives,keep bring up the out of wed lock birth rates,not understanding that the 70% birthrates.
comes from.

I think its very important to get past the jeremiads and understand why the numbers look the way they do. And given that this is an old beef of mine, I figured I'd go through the numbers again, fool around with some spreadsheets and try to get in touch with my inner Derek Thompson.

One obvious reason that you have a higher percentage of children born out of wedlock in the black community is that the number of unmarried women (mothers or not) has grown a lot, while number of married women has grown only a little. You can see that in the chart above, which I culled from these census numbers. The numbers are by the thousand. http://www.census.gov/hhes/families/data/marital.htm.
But while the number of unmarried black women has substantially grown, the actual birthrate (measured by births per 1000) for black women is it the lowest point that its ever documented.*

As you can see the drop in the birthrate for unmarried black women is mirrored by an even steeper drop among married black women. Indeed, whereas at one point married black women were having more kids than married white women, they are now having less than maried white woman.

The basic conclusion is that the birth rate for unmarried black women is--and has been--declining. In 1970 the birth rate for unmarried black women was 96 per 1,000. In 1980, it was 87.9. In 2005 it was 60.6. There is a huge spike in the late 1980s, but the overall trend is clear--the birth rate for unmarried black women has been declining for almost 40 years.

How can it be true that unmarried black women are having less kids, and yet the number of black babies born out of wedlock is 70 percent? Well, that question only looks at half the equation it never asks, "What is the behavior of maried black women?"Birth rates for married black women have declined even more than rates for unmarried black women and are now quite similar (tables 3 and 8). As a result, the proportion of births to unmarried black women remains high, 69 percent in 1999.

To summarize--there is no data to show that the black "illegitimacy" figure of 70 percent has been caused by unmarried black women having more kids than they did in the past. In fact, the trend is the exact opposite. What is clear is that the behavior of married black women has changed, to the point that married black women are actually having less kids than married white women.

[nearnorth]

Originally Posted by Wicket

Some would argue liberals enable that crappy culture through entitlements and cries of racism whenever it's criticized.

By "some" you mean "complete morons."

[Peer79]

Originally Posted by ptug101

I work in statistics the whole Black people are having kids out of wedlock is a statically misleading myth kind of like the more Black men in jail than college myth.

Alot of conservatives,keep bring up the out of wed lock birth rates,not understanding that the 70% birthrates.
comes from.

I think its very important to get past the jeremiads and understand why the numbers look the way they do. And given that this is an old beef of mine, I figured I'd go through the numbers again, fool around with some spreadsheets and try to get in touch with my inner Derek Thompson.

One obvious reason that you have a higher percentage of children born out of wedlock in the black community is that the number of unmarried women (mothers or not) has grown a lot, while number of married women has grown only a little. You can see that in the chart above, which I culled from these census numbers. The numbers are by the thousand. http://www.census.gov/hhes/families/data/marital.htm.
But while the number of unmarried black women has substantially grown, the actual birthrate (measured by births per 1000) for black women is it the lowest point that its ever documented.*

As you can see the drop in the birthrate for unmarried black women is mirrored by an even steeper drop among married black women. Indeed, whereas at one point married black women were having more kids than married white women, they are now having less than maried white woman.

The basic conclusion is that the birth rate for unmarried black women is--and has been--declining. In 1970 the birth rate for unmarried black women was 96 per 1,000. In 1980, it was 87.9. In 2005 it was 60.6. There is a huge spike in the late 1980s, but the overall trend is clear--the birth rate for unmarried black women has been declining for almost 40 years.

How can it be true that unmarried black women are having less kids, and yet the number of black babies born out of wedlock is 70 percent? Well, that question only looks at half the equation it never asks, "What is the behavior of maried black women?"Birth rates for married black women have declined even more than rates for unmarried black women and are now quite similar (tables 3 and 8). As a result, the proportion of births to unmarried black women remains high, 69 percent in 1999.

To summarize--there is no data to show that the black "illegitimacy" figure of 70 percent has been caused by unmarried black women having more kids than they did in the past. In fact, the trend is the exact opposite. What is clear is that the behavior of married black women has changed, to the point that married black women are actually having less kids than married white women.

I don't work in statistics, but I have always been interested in demographics and population projections. So while your data seems accurate, I think it is missing a larger point. You are correct that birthrates are declining amongst unmarried black women. In fact, birthrates are declining amongst all demographic groups in the US and in most countries in the world. Declining birthrates are not unique to any specific segment of the population. As you probably know, the worlds population is expected to significantly decline by 2100.

The larger point though, is that of the entire population of babies born nowadays, a far greater percentage are born to unmarried women as opposed to married women. That fact transcends racial lines. To summarize, there are not ever increasing hordes of babies being born to single mothers, however, as a percentage of the whole, children born to single mothers comprise a much greater percentage than in the past.

See this link from the CDC and Dept. of Health and Human Services. It is from 2007, before the recession. Birth rates have fallen from that time.
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db18.pdf

[Wicket]

Originally Posted by ptug101

I work in statistics the whole Black people are having kids out of wedlock is a statically misleading myth kind of like the more Black men in jail than college myth.

Alot of conservatives,keep bring up the out of wed lock birth rates,not understanding that the 70% birthrates.
comes from.

I think its very important to get past the jeremiads and understand why the numbers look the way they do. And given that this is an old beef of mine, I figured I'd go through the numbers again, fool around with some spreadsheets and try to get in touch with my inner Derek Thompson.

One obvious reason that you have a higher percentage of children born out of wedlock in the black community is that the number of unmarried women (mothers or not) has grown a lot, while number of married women has grown only a little. You can see that in the chart above, which I culled from these census numbers. The numbers are by the thousand. http://www.census.gov/hhes/families/data/marital.htm.
But while the number of unmarried black women has substantially grown, the actual birthrate (measured by births per 1000) for black women is it the lowest point that its ever documented.*

As you can see the drop in the birthrate for unmarried black women is mirrored by an even steeper drop among married black women. Indeed, whereas at one point married black women were having more kids than married white women, they are now having less than maried white woman.

The basic conclusion is that the birth rate for unmarried black women is--and has been--declining. In 1970 the birth rate for unmarried black women was 96 per 1,000. In 1980, it was 87.9. In 2005 it was 60.6. There is a huge spike in the late 1980s, but the overall trend is clear--the birth rate for unmarried black women has been declining for almost 40 years.

How can it be true that unmarried black women are having less kids, and yet the number of black babies born out of wedlock is 70 percent? Well, that question only looks at half the equation it never asks, "What is the behavior of maried black women?"Birth rates for married black women have declined even more than rates for unmarried black women and are now quite similar (tables 3 and 8). As a result, the proportion of births to unmarried black women remains high, 69 percent in 1999.

To summarize--there is no data to show that the black "illegitimacy" figure of 70 percent has been caused by unmarried black women having more kids than they did in the past. In fact, the trend is the exact opposite. What is clear is that the behavior of married black women has changed, to the point that married black women are actually having less kids than married white women.

Sounds like a bunch of liberal mumbo jumbo to me.