Is Little Village safe to live in? Design Professional buying first home, etc. (Chicago: apartments, violent crime)

[OyCrumbler]

For reference, let’s go by homicide rate: Chicago's Safest And Most Dangerous Neighborhoods 2018: Murders

South Lawndale (Little Village more or less) is at 10.9 per 100K people. Now mind you, there aren’t 100K people in Little Village, that’s just the baseline denominator to normalize the rate numbers and while murders are usually in the zero digit, single digit and double digits total numbers, populations are generally in the 5 digit range so this can fluctuate pretty easily with a bit fewer or more murders, but the homocide rate roughly ranks the comparative safety of the neighborhoods/community areas.

For reference, let’s use a well known SF neighborhood that shares some similarities: the Mission District. The population of the Mission District is at about 45K people. Last year the area had 8 homicides and the year before that 10 homicides, so that’s a 17.8 per 100K rate and 22.2 per 100K rate respectively. South Lawndale also mostly goes into that range of 10s and 20s in recent years, so it’s not completely unreasonable to put these at the same range in regards to safety, so if the Mission District does or does not sketch you out, then the Little Village / Heart of Chicago, and Pilsen areas put you roughly into that range of safety.

The big differentiator for overall city crime differences is that Chicago also includes some much higher homicide rate areas and they are in the city and quite large while such areas don’t really exist in San Francisco proper, but do exist in the East Bay in Oakland and Richmond. Chicago has several neighborhoods / community areas pushing rates of 40, 50, and 60 and even a few in the 90+ category. Just to the north of Little Village is one of those neighborhoods (North Lawndale) and that’s certainly a neighborhood to avoid at this point.

Personally, my favorite big “clump” of neighborhoods in the city, using a bicycling, busing and walking basis is the agglomerated Little Village, Heart of Chicago, Pilsen areas with the Bridgeport, McKinley Park areas along with Chinatown. I highly recommend biking in the city as I found biking in Chicago to be a breeze, though maybe start small if you’ve never biked in a city before. All of the aforementioned neighborhoods have bike stations for the Divvy bikeshare system.

[sf_arkitect]

Originally Posted by dlong1991

I'll throw in my 2 cents as someone who is there every day and has friends who are homeowners in that area. You're eventually going to run into trouble there. There are small signs of gentrification but the gangs are entrenched in the culture of the area and seem to be more hostile than other areas.

If you aren't familiar with Chicago, I wouldn't pick Little Village.

Just to be clear, I don't partake in any gang activity and I am not involved with any drugs.

As a young professional (I am in my mid 20s) who would just mind their own business and spend time fixing up their house when not working downtown, would I still run into trouble with gangs in Little Village?

[sf_arkitect]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

For reference, let’s go by homicide rate: Chicago's Safest And Most Dangerous Neighborhoods 2018: Murders

South Lawndale (Little Village more or less) is at 10.9 per 100K people. Now mind you, there aren’t 100K people in Little Village, that’s just the baseline denominator to normalize the rate numbers and while murders are usually in the zero digit, single digit and double digits total numbers, populations are generally in the 5 digit range so this can fluctuate pretty easily with a bit fewer or more murders, but the homocide rate roughly ranks the comparative safety of the neighborhoods/community areas.

For reference, let’s use a well known SF neighborhood that shares some similarities: the Mission District. The population of the Mission District is at about 45K people. Last year the area had 8 homicides and the year before that 10 homicides, so that’s a 17.8 per 100K rate and 22.2 per 100K rate respectively. South Lawndale also mostly goes into that range of 10s and 20s in recent years, so it’s not completely unreasonable to put these at the same range in regards to safety, so if the Mission District does or does not sketch you out, then the Little Village / Heart of Chicago, and Pilsen areas put you roughly into that range of safety.

The big differentiator for overall city crime differences is that Chicago also includes some much higher homicide rate areas and they are in the city and quite large while such areas don’t really exist in San Francisco proper, but do exist in the East Bay in Oakland and Richmond. Chicago has several neighborhoods / community areas pushing rates of 40, 50, and 60 and even a few in the 90+ category. Just to the north of Little Village is one of those neighborhoods (North Lawndale) and that’s certainly a neighborhood to avoid at this point.

Personally, my favorite big “clump” of neighborhoods in the city, using a bicycling, busing and walking basis is the agglomerated Little Village, Heart of Chicago, Pilsen areas with the Bridgeport, McKinley Park areas along with Chinatown. I highly recommend biking in the city as I found biking in Chicago to be a breeze, though maybe start small if you’ve never biked in a city before. All of the aforementioned neighborhoods have bike stations for the Divvy bikeshare system.

THANK YOU! This post is much more reassuring.

I do venture into the Mission quite late for a dinner out with friends and I often find myself within the vicinity of some sketchy characters on the sidewalk - but I usually walk with a quick gait and I'm always alert of who is behind or in front of me when I am in the Mission.

If Little Village is really similar to the Mission in that regard, then I don't think I would have any issues.

[paytonc]

Is there a particular reason to have ruled out Pilsen -- which is even closer to the Loop and adjacent nightlife areas, and has more transit service?

I have a few friends who've owned in Little Village (and the southern edge of North Lawndale*) for many years. They haven't found it to be a great investment, whether they bought pre- or post-2008, but they've been largely happy with their neighborhood.

* You might appreciate their home-rehab blog.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by paytonc

Is there a particular reason to have ruled out Pilsen -- which is even closer to the Loop and adjacent nightlife areas, and has more transit service?

I have a few friends who've owned in Little Village (and the southern edge of North Lawndale*) for many years. They haven't found it to be a great investment, whether they bought pre- or post-2008, but they've been largely happy with their neighborhood.

* You might appreciate their home-rehab blog.

There's a major price difference between Pilsen and Little Village. That is possibly why. The same property will be at least 50% more, if not higher in Pilsen v. Little Village.

Most properties in Pilsen are overpriced in that they have some measure of speculation built into them. Essentially, you'll be paying a 2021 Chicago with an Amazon HQ2 in the South Loop price if you want to buy in Pilsen now.

In LV you can still find bargains, though those are vanishing in the eastern portion (east of Marshall Blvd). And owners are starting to ask high prices even west of that. As of now, overpriced properties are just sitting though.

If my heart was absolutely set on Pilsen, I'd wait until Amazon announces Washington D.C. or Atlanta as the site of new HQ2. That might make sellers more realistic, especially when combined with the winter weather and interest rate hikes.

[OyCrumbler]

Though if the OP can comfortably afford Pilsen now and is looking to live in it rather than as speculation, then maybe it makes sense to just buy now.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

Though if the OP can comfortably afford Pilsen now and is looking to live in it rather than as speculation, then maybe it makes sense to just buy now.

That's certainly the attitude of many as properties don't stay on the market very long there. Bridgeport is similar.

Personally, I'm a multi-unit investor and I will not pay for future appreciation. I just look at cash flow in the present and Pilsen and Bridgeport are a no-go for me in that respect. But those markets are pretty frothy, so people are willing to pay some big money to get in there. Cash flow be damned.

So if you want to jump into that fray you definitely have to be prepared to pay more than an already high asking price because you're going to be up against some pretty stiff competition for a good property. I don't know what this buyer's situation is. That he's considering Little Village would lead me to believe he's on a budget but I guess he would have to answer that.

[ToriaT]

If you live within walking distance to Cermak Road, Berwyn has the same CTA service as the city. You hope on the Cermak rd bus to the Pink line and go downtown. You can rely on Uber and lyft to get other places.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by ToriaT

If you live within walking distance to Cermak Road, Berwyn has the same CTA service as the city. You hope on the Cermak rd bus to the Pink line and go downtown. You can rely on Uber and lyft to get other places.

Rational arguments like that do not work. A hipster will act like you just threw hydrochloric acid in his face if you mention a 708 area code or suburb.

The part of Berwyn around Cermak is convenient to the pink line with one bus ride, and you can walk to the blue line for some parts in North Berwyn. But that's a really hard sell for somebody who wants to live in the city. Ask me how I know, LOL!

Berwyn tries though. They have the ad campaign "nothing like a suburb." For the longest time, I read it as "there's nothing like a suburb," which I thought was rather peculiar. I later realized they mean "it's nothing like a suburb." I see what they're going for but it's tough.

[OyCrumbler]

Living in Little Village/Pilsen also means being able to easily bike and bus to many parts of the city and generally a cheaper Uber/Lyft ride. There are a lot of situations where Berwyn is definitely the better option, but this doesn't seem like one of them.

I do think Pilsen should be considered though, and not just Little Village.