Dominos are starting to fall. Crime in the city leading to billionaires and businesses relocating (Chicago: bankruptcy, construction)

[IronWright]

Originally Posted by personone

It is the headlines of losing Boeing and Caterpillar that are a devastating blow to the city. People are only seeing the headlines, and not going to bother looking into the details. All the explanations of why it doesn’t make much of a difference and how there will still be staff here, doesn’t change the headlines or bad press. It will take 2 equally powerhouse companies moving in to recover from this.

What tangible results do you think would materialize after people read headlines that a Fortune 500 company is moving their HQ to Chicago? Kellogg is a household name and Google is expanding with another 1,000 employees, you still have the same issues either way.

I don't think that Samsung and Sherwin Williams moving their 'HQ' to Chicago would have an affect on the opinions of your typical disgruntled residents or disillusioned on-lookers.

[Bitey]

Originally Posted by ronnydavis

Google just made the news that its buying the Thompson Center. Chicago is one of the 4 cities where they want to add thousands of jobs. Also Kelloggs is moving its most profitable HQ here.

Google is probably the only entity on Earth that can afford the running costs on that place. If they do buy it I wouldn't be surprised if they raze it.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by ronnydavis

^Exactly! Chicago is in a fantastic future position. The southern states are digging there way back to the 1950s and the west is going through a drought and water crisis. We sit on one of the world's biggest freshwater lakes and the great lakes region in general will face the least amount of climate change. And alot of the coastal cities have to deal with rising sea levels (New Orleans, Miami, etc.). We're the cheapest "real city in the country (Houston and Dallas are not cities, they are oversized suburbs.) Plus we're most likely getting a new mayor next year so thats cool

ST_LE T_LKING POINTS

"Pat, I think I'd like to solve the puzzle!"

[jpdivola]

Chicago's got a lot of positive attributes. It's clearly never going the way of Detroit. But, I do wonder if the great inversion return to the city is peaking and we are heading toward another period of suburban flight and population losses. Obviously not just in Chicago, but perhaps more so in Chicago than other gateway cities.

The crime issues, the collapse of the 5 day commuter model, the fiscal issues, the ideologically liberal politics. All seem likely to drive a lot of centrist middle class types to the suburbs or other regions of the country. Once these moves start they can take on a life of their own and kick off a self reinforcing cycle.

Sea and Boston have low crime rates and high innovation economies, NYC and LA are big diverse cities with comparatively low crime rates and pragmatic electorates. I suspect all 4 will bounce back fine as covid moves into the rear view. SF is a bit of a wild card with a relatively low violent crime rate but a lot of social issues in the core.. But, Chicago, DC and Philly all seem vulnerable to a new flight cycles given their high violent crime rates.

[ronnydavis]

^No. You do know the Census was undercounted right? Illinois is currently at its highest peak population EVER at over 13 million people. You can be sure alot of that undercounting was in Chicago. Chicago has America's most diverse economy. I would say Chicago is in way better shape than Philly, Philly has to compete with like 4 other cities on the Eastern seaboard plus its the poorest big city in the country. Chicago is the only real major city in the Midwest, no competition. Tons of big 10 grads move to Chicago every year. Liberal politics? LA, NY, Seattle, and Boston are all more liberal than Chicago. With our governer, we are headed in the right direction regarding fiscal issues.



Also remember, cost of living. Chicago is still the cheapest major city in the country. Its good.

[personone]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

Chicago's got a lot of positive attributes. It's clearly never going the way of Detroit. But, I do wonder if the great inversion return to the city is peaking and we are heading toward another period of suburban flight and population losses. Obviously not just in Chicago, but perhaps more so in Chicago than other gateway cities.

The crime issues, the collapse of the 5 day commuter model, the fiscal issues, the ideologically liberal politics. All seem likely to drive a lot of centrist middle class types to the suburbs or other regions of the country. Once these moves start they can take on a life of their own and kick off a self reinforcing cycle.

Sea and Boston have low crime rates and high innovation economies, NYC and LA are big diverse cities with comparatively low crime rates and pragmatic electorates. I suspect all 4 will bounce back fine as covid moves into the rear view. SF is a bit of a wild card with a relatively low violent crime rate but a lot of social issues in the core.. But, Chicago, DC and Philly all seem vulnerable to a new flight cycles given their high violent crime rates.

Agree about Chicago and Philly, but DC seems like an outlier on this list. It has continued to grow, and has a strong regional economy that will not lead to flight. Also, while crime is bad, it’s not at the level where it’s impacting the city like it is in Chicago and Philly.

[jpdivola]

Originally Posted by personone

Agree about Chicago and Philly, but DC seems like an outlier on this list. It has continued to grow, and has a strong regional economy that will not lead to flight. Also, while crime is bad, it’s not at the level where it’s impacting the city like it is in Chicago and Philly.

DC is sort of a weird, highly polarized city. It has income and education levels like Boston or Seattle, but also a high violent crime rate in league with Chicago and Philly. The region itself will probably continue to grow at healthier clip than any of the northern cities. But, the growth of the city itself isn't necessarily assured. After all, the region boomed from the 1960s-1990s while the District itself floundered.



DC is a relatively small city. Mostly for the better, it lacks the stark north/south divide of Chicago. But, that also makes it harder for people to hide from the city's broader crime/poverty issues. Lots of yuppies live in hip area central area (Columbia Heights, Shaw, Petworth) with pretty high crime rates, where shootings are pretty regular occurrences. Many expected those areas to gradually transition to Lakeview/Lincoln Park type area. I know first hand several people in those areas that are getting fed up with "city living" and considering leaving. Obviously, not all will. But, I think you could see more people leaving and less people willing to follow behind now that nobody really expects there areas to see improvements in crime.



Plus, the city is heavily reliant on suburban office commuters. Without the commuters returning 5-days a week the central area will really struggle. Property taxes and sales taxes could decline That could lead to higher taxes on the middle/affluent residents The affluent residents can see that they can easily move to Bethesda, Arlington, Alexandria, etc and find lower taxes, safer streets, better schools all the while still having access to walkable areas. Particularly, if they are only commuting into a downtown office 2-3 days a week. If some middle/affluent people start to decline those that remain will have to bear more of the tax hikes/service cuts, fueling further tax hikes/service cuts, which further disincentivizes people from living in the district and so on.


Is this the most likely course of action, hopefully not. But, it is far more likely than at anytime in the past 20 years.

[personone]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

DC is sort of a weird, highly polarized city. It has income and education levels like Boston or Seattle, but also a high violent crime rate in league with Chicago and Philly. The region itself will probably continue to grow at healthier clip than any of the northern cities. But, the growth of the city itself isn't necessarily assured. After all, the region boomed from the 1960s-1990s while the District itself floundered.



DC is a relatively small city. Mostly for the better, it lacks the stark north/south divide of Chicago. But, that also makes it harder for people to hide from the city's broader crime/poverty issues. Lots of yuppies live in hip area central area (Columbia Heights, Shaw, Petworth) with pretty high crime rates, where shootings are pretty regular occurrences. Many expected those areas to gradually transition to Lakeview/Lincoln Park type area. I know first hand several people in those areas that are getting fed up with "city living" and considering leaving. Obviously, not all will. But, I think you could see more people leaving and less people willing to follow behind now that nobody really expects there areas to see improvements in crime.



Plus, the city is heavily reliant on suburban office commuters. Without the commuters returning 5-days a week the central area will really struggle. Property taxes and sales taxes could decline That could lead to higher taxes on the middle/affluent residents The affluent residents can see that they can easily move to Bethesda, Arlington, Alexandria, etc and find lower taxes, safer streets, better schools all the while still having access to walkable areas. Particularly, if they are only commuting into a downtown office 2-3 days a week. If some middle/affluent people start to decline those that remain will have to bear more of the tax hikes/service cuts, fueling further tax hikes/service cuts, which further disincentivizes people from living in the district and so on.


Is this the most likely course of action, hopefully not. But, it is far more likely than at anytime in the past 20 years.

I grew up in the DC/MD area and these are good observations, but I view DC as a little better situated than Chicago or Philly in terms of the impact of crime on its growth and prosperity. It’s definitely not great compared to other peer cities, but I still don’t think it’s as negatively impacted by crime as Chicago/Philly.

[treemoni]

Originally Posted by personone

I grew up in the DC/MD area and these are good observations, but I view DC as a little better situated than Chicago or Philly in terms of the impact of crime on its growth and prosperity. It’s definitely not great compared to other peer cities, but I still don’t think it’s as negatively impacted by crime as Chicago/Philly.

Okay, now it makes sense. Hometown/home area (urea ) bias. If DC wasn't the seat of government it would probably mirror certain southern cities.

[personone]

Originally Posted by treemoni

Okay, now it makes sense. Hometown/home area (urea ) bias. If DC wasn't the seat of government it would probably mirror certain southern cities.

Yup. DC is technically a Southern city. “Urea”?????