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^Doubt it. For that to happen, the MSA would need to gain 725,000 people in just ten years. That's a 22% growth rate, which isn't likely. The Twin Cities MSA had a 10.14 % growth rate in 2000-2009. At that rate, the MSA won't reach 4 million until 2030 at the earliest.
Cities/metro areas that will ascend into the 1 million + tier
Albuquerque
Boise
Spokane
Omaha
Tucson recently crested this and will grow further
Cities/metro areas that will ascend into the 2 million + tier
Charlotte Raleigh/Durham
Austin
Columbus
VA Beach/Norfolk
Las Vegas???
Portland, OR crested the 2 million + tier but I don't see it cresting 3 million for many years/decades to come.
Cities/metro areas that will ascend into the 3 million + tier
Denver
Cities/metro areas that will ascend into the 4 million + tier
Seattle/Tacoma
Charlotte's CSA is already over 2 Million. Its MSA should reach 2 million by 2015.
Raleigh/Durham (which is actually a CSA but should be one MSA, IMO) should reach 2 million by 2015.
^Doubt it. For that to happen, the MSA would need to gain 725,000 people in just ten years. That's a 22% growth rate, which isn't likely. The Twin Cities MSA had a 10.14 % growth rate in 2000-2009. At that rate, the MSA won't reach 4 million until 2030 at the earliest.
I see the CSA hitting 4 million in 10 years, perhaps not the MSA. Seeing the CSA is probably between 3.5-3.6 million right now.
I see the CSA hitting 4 million in 10 years, perhaps not the MSA. Seeing the CSA is probably between 3.5-3.6 million right now.
Minneapolis has 368,000 people. St. Paul has less than 300,000. Their metro and CSA is huge. The metro is sooo spread out, that it's almost unbelieveable that cities as far away as some of these are, are still considered part of the metro. I'm originally from Minnesota, and I spent a lot of time there with one of my jobs. I couldn't believe how far out some of my accounts were, and they were still part of the metro. In Milwaukee, if you were that far away, you'd almost be in Chicago. Minnesota is a fairly rural state, and some of these suburbs were extremely rural seeming. I've always been amazed by this - no reason for commenting, other than to share my thoughts. I've always thought it strange, that you drive through the country from one town to the next, and you're still in the metro.
Location: Cleveland bound with MPLS in the rear-view
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Sure, MSA-wise I'd say you're right, 4 million is a stretch. But I'd also caution against using the 2009 census numbers without the official 2010 numbers.....usually they undercount Minneapolis/St. Paul and the decade YOY growth could very well be 13% or so, putting it more on path for 4 million by 2020.
I found this interesting chart list that projected the metro populations for the next 20 years. Projected population of 250 U.S. metros - bizjournals: (http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/257.html - broken link)
Denver is projected at 2.98 million by 2025.
Las Vegas is right behind at 2.95
St. Louis at 2.94
Portland, OR at 2.8
Austin at 2.7
Maybe this will help with all the talk about estimated populations or whatnot.
Minneapolis has 368,000 people. St. Paul has less than 300,000. Their metro and CSA is huge. The metro is sooo spread out, that it's almost unbelieveable that cities as far away as some of these are, are still considered part of the metro. I'm originally from Minnesota, and I spent a lot of time there with one of my jobs. I couldn't believe how far out some of my accounts were, and they were still part of the metro. In Milwaukee, if you were that far away, you'd almost be in Chicago. Minnesota is a fairly rural state, and some of these suburbs were extremely rural seeming. I've always been amazed by this - no reason for commenting, other than to share my thoughts. I've always thought it strange, that you drive through the country from one town to the next, and you're still in the metro.
That is probably the same thing with Austin. There's about 25 miles of country from Austin to other suburbs like San Marcos or Bastrop but they are still considered part of Austin's metro.
Location: Cleveland bound with MPLS in the rear-view
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Here's the problem with that analysis.............it assumes a similar pattern of growth. So much can change from decade to decade or year to year that those patterns are seriously just extreme high-level assumptions -- but then again, what is a better basis to guesstimate your projections I guess?
In 1990, I'd NEVER assume Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Vegas and Miami would explode in the next 20 years, but they did!
Here's the problem with that analysis.............it assumes a similar pattern of growth. So much can change from decade to decade or year to year that those patterns are seriously just extreme high-level assumptions -- but then again, what is a better basis to guesstimate your projections I guess?
In 1990, I'd NEVER assume Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Vegas and Miami would explode in the next 20 years, but they did!
well, yes of course. i guess that's why one would figure why they are called "estimates" or "projections". i wouldn't put much stock into it either but I thought it would help.
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