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I think considering how populous and historically-significant Pennsylvania has always been our state has consistently also "flown under the radar". I feel like people talk about CA, TX, NY, and FL very heavily on here and in real life. Same for talking about Chicago more than Philadelphia or Pittsburgh. PA is considered "flyover country" for some reason. Maybe because it's overrun with Trump supporters?
More likely because PA's biggest city is such a short distance from the nation's largest which limits their ability to stand out regionally. Trump won 28 other states by a wider margin than PA in 2016, and the 2018 midterm results don't suggest the state is enamored with his party.
Fascinating snapshot of pure rankings and how geographies have shuffled--mainly the southeast and west with huge gains and the northeast and midwest falling behind a bit.
If I were to go way out on a limb, and project the top 20 in 2050, it's all south and west with even bigger gains, as folks move to warmer weather and lower taxed states (exception of heavily taxed California):
1. California 44 million
2. Texas 34 million
3. Florida 27 million
4. New York 20.8 million
5. Georgia 13.7 million
6. North Carolina 13.5 million
7. Pennsylvania 13.2 million
8. Ohio 12.4 million
9. Illinois 12.3 million
10. Virginia 10.8 million
11. Washington 10.5 million
12. Arizona 10.3 million
13. Michigan 10.2 million
14. New Jersey 9.8 million
15. Tennessee 8.8 million
16. Colorado 8.4 million
17. Massachusetts 7.8 million
18. Indiana 7.5 million
19. South Carolina 7.3 million
20. Maryland 7 million
I expect some future City-Data readers will come across this prediction after the 2050 census and find much of it right on target.
I would suggest moving Michigan up a little, since the state has become a much more business friendly environment in recent years, and is extremely blessed with a precious commodity - water - that is comparatively lacking a place like Arizona that is predicted to be ranked just ahead.
Maybe project a similar growth rate in Michigan as these numbers suggest for Pennsylvania and Ohio. Urban Detroit and Flint have been a drag on the state and many rural counties are stagnant, but Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, Traverse City, and the middle and outer Detroit suburbs likely have good growth prospects.
Fascinating snapshot of pure rankings and how geographies have shuffled--mainly the southeast and west with huge gains and the northeast and midwest falling behind a bit.
If I were to go way out on a limb, and project the top 20 in 2050, it's all south and west with even bigger gains, as folks move to warmer weather and lower taxed states (exception of heavily taxed California):
1. California 44 million
2. Texas 34 million
3. Florida 27 million
4. New York 20.8 million
5. Georgia 13.7 million
6. North Carolina 13.5 million
7. Pennsylvania 13.2 million
8. Ohio 12.4 million
9. Illinois 12.3 million
10. Virginia 10.8 million
11. Washington 10.5 million
12. Arizona 10.3 million
13. Michigan 10.2 million
14. New Jersey 9.8 million
15. Tennessee 8.8 million
16. Colorado 8.4 million
17. Massachusetts 7.8 million
18. Indiana 7.5 million
19. South Carolina 7.3 million
20. Maryland 7 million
You have Washington as having 3 million more people than Massachusetts but it only has .5 million more now? Oh god are you one of those people who thinks the entire eastern half of the United States is done growing for the rest of civilization?
Fascinating snapshot of pure rankings and how geographies have shuffled--mainly the southeast and west with huge gains and the northeast and midwest falling behind a bit.
If I were to go way out on a limb, and project the top 20 in 2050, it's all south and west with even bigger gains, as folks move to warmer weather and lower taxed states (exception of heavily taxed California):
1. California 44 million
2. Texas 34 million
3. Florida 27 million
4. New York 20.8 million
5. Georgia 13.7 million
6. North Carolina 13.5 million
7. Pennsylvania 13.2 million
8. Ohio 12.4 million
9. Illinois 12.3 million
10. Virginia 10.8 million
11. Washington 10.5 million
12. Arizona 10.3 million
13. Michigan 10.2 million
14. New Jersey 9.8 million
15. Tennessee 8.8 million
16. Colorado 8.4 million
17. Massachusetts 7.8 million
18. Indiana 7.5 million
19. South Carolina 7.3 million
20. Maryland 7 million
Georgia and North Carolina are growing fast, but I think you're underestimating the margin of population between them and the next states above them. Ohio is ahead of them by more than 1,000,000, and Pennsylvania and Illinois are ahead of them by about 2,500,000. I don't think it'll be until 2040 that Georgia and North Carolina pass Ohio, honestly, and it won't be until the second half of this century that they pass Pennsylvania and Illinois. And this assumes that current population trends remain static. It is possible that growth in Georgia and North Carolina will decelerate to some degree, and it's also possible that growth in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio will accelerate to some degree. Time will tell, but even with current population trends, it's very ambitious to have Georgia and North Carolina pass the next three states above them in just 30 years.
Illinois population is dominated by one metro in Chicagoland. PA has 2 and mighty NYC inflow of more poorer folk pushed out of NYC with smaller cities seeing diversification across the state. Including Philly billing itself as a alternative to NYC and maintaining its African-American share vs Chicago in losses in it.
Really? Why the inflection on whom you feel is moving out of New York and why?
Georgia and North Carolina are growing fast, but I think you're underestimating the margin of population between them and the next states above them. Ohio is ahead of them by more than 1,000,000, and Pennsylvania and Illinois are ahead of them by about 2,500,000. I don't think it'll be until 2040 that Georgia and North Carolina pass Ohio, honestly, and it won't be until the second half of this century that they pass Pennsylvania and Illinois. And this assumes that current population trends remain static. It is possible that growth in Georgia and North Carolina will decelerate to some degree, and it's also possible that growth in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio will accelerate to some degree. Time will tell, but even with current population trends, it's very ambitious to have Georgia and North Carolina pass the next three states above them in just 30 years.
Well, you might be right--we will see.
But, North Carolina has been growing at well over 10% every decade for at least 50 years. If you reduce that to 8% average for the next 30 years each decade, that is roughly adding another 800k each decade. Total that up for the next 30 years and you have 2.4 million more folks, plus or minus, of course.
Add it onto North Carolina's current 10.3 tally (2017 estimate) and there you have 12.7 already. I may be a bit aggressive in my estimates originally, but I don't think 12.5 to 13 million folks in 2050 is too ambitious, really.
Then you have Illinois, which will most likely keep declining some, and my estimate is it will drop another few hundred thousand over the next few decades. Ohio and Pennsylvania will grow, but slowly.
When we’re doing these projections, does it take into account the fact the birth rate is falling and the baby boomers are going to start dying in large numbers in the 2030s and 2040s?
+2 - Idaho
+2 - Virginia
+1 - Montana
+1 - New Hampshire
+1 - New Mexico
+1 - North Carolina
+1 - South Carolina
+1 - Tennessee
+1 - Texas
0 - Arkansas
0 - California
-1 - Hawaii
-1 - Illinois
-1 - Maryland
-1 - Minnesota
-1 - North Dakota
-1 - Ohio
-1 - Pennsylvania
-1 - South Dakota
-1 - Vermont
-1 - Wyoming
-2 - Alabama
-2 - Michigan
-2 - Nebraska
-2 - New Jersey
-2 - New York
-2 - Oklahoma
-3 - Kansas
-3 - Kentucky
-3 - Mississippi
-3 - Missouri
-4 - Connecticut
-4 - Iowa
-4 - Maine
-4 - Massachusetts
-4 - Rhode Island
-4 - West Virginia
-4 - Wisconsin
-5 - Indiana
-6 - Louisiana
Discuss.
Great post
Arizona and Nevada are on fire....and it’s not just because they are dry and hot
Nevada used to be bottom of the barrel....in 1950 only Alaska had a lower population!
Here is an interesting conparison....
Nevada .......1950....162,000.....now....3,000,000
Arizona .......1950....756,000.....now....7,000,000
Utah............1950....696,000.....now....3,100,0 00
New Mexico..1950....689,000.....now....2,100,000
Montana.......1950....593,000.....now....1,000,000
North Dakota.1950...619,000.....now ....755,000
Alaska..........1950...135,000.....now.....740,000
North Dakota used to have way more people than Alaska...now neck and neck,
and that’s even with North Dakota’s recent oil and gas boom.
Sad to see New Mexico fall way behind Utah, they were neck and neck for decades,
especially as I much prefer NM, has potential just poorly managed I guess.
Arizona and Nevada are on fire....and it’s not just because they are dry and hot
Nevada used to be bottom of the barrel....in 1950 only Alaska had a lower population!
Here is an interesting conparison....
Nevada .......1950....162,000.....now....3,000,000
Arizona .......1950....756,000.....now....7,000,000
Utah............1950....696,000.....now....3,100,0 00
New Mexico..1950....689,000.....now....2,100,000
Montana.......1950....593,000.....now....1,000,000
North Dakota.1950...619,000.....now ....755,000
Alaska..........1950...135,000.....now.....740,000
North Dakota used to have way more people than Alaska...now neck and neck,
and that’s even with North Dakota’s recent oil and gas boom.
Sad to see New Mexico fall way behind Utah, they were neck and neck for decades,
especially as I much prefer NM, has potential just poorly managed I guess.
New Mexico has a very weak economy and is always ranked near the top of the list for poorest states in terms of median household income. Also, Utah has a very high birth rate and has the youngest average age of any state in the US. New Mexico has an aging population with a much lower rate of natural increase by comparison, especially compared to 10 years ago.
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