Cleveland in 10 Years... (Youngstown, Lorain, East Cleveland: neighborhoods, university, casino)

[LoveCleveland#1]

Question - What do you all think Cleveland will be like in 10 years? A lot can happen within a 10 year period...

[andrew61]

Originally Posted by LoveCleveland#1

Question - What do you all think Cleveland will be like in 10 years? A lot can happen within a 10 year period...

The population of the city of Cleveland will shrink to 250,000 -- making it smaller than Plano, Texas.

[LuvOrlando]

Jimmy Dimora will be out of jail.

Triv will still say things that make me gasp.

Unless they lower the taxes, businesses will continue to leave and take the jobs with them.

People will leave to go where there are jobs.

The Cleveland Clinic will be the only game in town...but who knows how jobs in healthcare will pay then.

If this casino thing takes off at all, that will help.

I'd love to see Cleveland give huge tax breaks to businesses, have a bunch of them move in, watch the jobs multiply and see everyone happier and with more money...but that isn't what I think it will be like.

[330to216]

The thing is though, Cleveland is creating jobs right now. At a pretty good pace too. Why does everyone seem to think we're that bad off?

[homiej]

Originally Posted by LuvOrlando

I'd love to see Cleveland give huge tax breaks to businesses, have a bunch of them move in, watch the jobs multiply and see everyone happier and with more money...but that isn't what I think it will be like.

Even though Cleveland is one of the poster children for redevelopment using tax breaks and neoliberal urban governance strategies to bring back entire neighborhoods through business and assistance?

[yagisenin]

Originally Posted by andrew61

The population of the city of Cleveland will shrink to 250,000 -- making it smaller than Plano, Texas.

Nah... with all of the new development taking place in University Circle and Downtown, young people sticking around in places like Ohio City and Tremont, and "boomerangers" returning, Cleveland will probably move back up over 400k. I'm guessing stabilization and a modest increase for 2020 to offset additional losses--425,000. After this, I think the city will begin a gradual ascent upwards over 20 years to reach something like 550,000 by 2040.

[homiej]

Originally Posted by yagisenin

Nah... with all of the new development taking place in University Circle and Downtown, young people sticking around in places like Ohio City and Tremont, and "boomerangers" returning, Cleveland will probably move back up over 400k. I'm guessing stabilization and a modest increase for 2020 to offset additional losses--425,000. After this, I think the city will begin a gradual ascent upwards over 20 years to reach something like 550,000 by 2040.

That would be sweet! Especially with the national trend of people moving back to the city and all of the new high-density developments being built - this is realistic.

[TheProf]

Originally Posted by andrew61

The population of the city of Cleveland will shrink to 250,000 -- making it smaller than Plano, Texas.

Now that's positive...

[homiej]

Originally Posted by TheProf

Now that's positive...

Also highly doubtful as the city continues to improve both image and economy.

I think there's a possibility of even a slight gain in the past 2-3 years. Gas prices as well as opportunities for lifestyles that people want make Cleveland very attractive.

[yagisenin]

Originally Posted by homiej

That would be sweet! Especially with the national trend of people moving back to the city and all of the new high-density developments being built - this is realistic.

That was my reasoning... what's going to be realistic?

Maybe by the year 2100, Cleveland could reach and surpass its all-time high of 915,000 people, but its tough to guess with any sort of accuracy about the events may unfold between then and beyond the middle of the century.

What happens with the economy, the emergence of new technologies and industries, or the environment?

Could Cleveland benefit and prosper greatly through breakthroughs in medical technology and innovations created in conjunction with the Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals?

Will there be a massive diaspora from the Sun Belt to Great Lakes states and cities due to depleted aquifers or extremely hot temperatures that make cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas uninhabitable?

Maybe there is some sort of an agreement that happens at some point to consolidate the city of Cleveland and its suburbs? Does this impact the first ring suburbs? The entire county? Or even a multi-county area?

A city-county consolidation alone right now would put Cleveland up to 1.2 million people, and back into the top 10 of US Cities in terms of population. A multi-county consolidation with Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga and Lorain counties would put Cleveland in the top 5, ahead of Philadelphia and behind Houston.

I'd say it's pretty unrealistic at this point to anticipate such a large scale overhaul of government in NE Ohio to happen at any point in the near future given enduring attitudes about parochialism between the city and its suburbs. We may sooner see Cleveland absorb East Cleveland and perhaps a few other first-ring suburbs like North Randall that are struggling over the course of the next 10 years than any large scale consolidation.

I believe we will also see an upward population trend in other Great Lakes/Rust Belt cities over the next decade. Pittsburgh seems poised to post a modest increase of its own in 2020, maybe moving back up to about 330,000 from its current position at 305k. I predict that cities such as Detroit and Youngstown will also begin to stabilize and see their population losses even out as people, businesses and investment move back into their downtowns.

We will continue to see a trend of people moving back into old urban downtowns to live, work, and play amidst a higher density environment, creating new businesses, living spaces and cultural amenities, and revitalizing cities from the inside out. This doesn't mean the outright end of suburbs, but it may mean that many suburbs are going to eventually have to reinvent themselves as well to remain relevant and viable into the later decades of the 21st century.