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Old 01-12-2010, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,250,313 times
Reputation: 6815

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Re-read my post about agriculture. It's a very difficult, capital-intensive business in which to try to make a living. It's virtually impossible in places like Durango because land prices are many times in excess of what that land can EVER produce in agricultural production.
I think that's been true there since they started putting up barb wire in the '90s, the 1890s that is.
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Old 01-12-2010, 12:59 PM
 
Location: mancos
7,044 posts, read 6,169,737 times
Reputation: 4532
actually the unemployment is much higher many of us in construction are self employed and don't count. most i know are out of or can find very little work. many others left the area. even the cit and schools are laying off and they have to leave.you cant live in Dgo on unemployment. i am lucky as i live in a nearby town that is more affordable. 99% of my work has always been in Dgo.over the past 30 years 80% of friends and acquaintances have left
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Old 01-12-2010, 01:27 PM
 
Location: In my own world
878 posts, read 1,393,686 times
Reputation: 1027
For the past 20 years, innumerable small vacation areas across this vast country, much like Durango, have had a growing disconnect between the cost of living and local wages. Most of this price discrepancy is in the form of housing, though necessities such as food, etc. are higher as well. This was driven by the wealthy buying multiple homes, especially as prices on their primary homes increased, and also the desires of many to "escape" the bigger cities, and live in what were historically vacation areas.

This model is now broken. A lot of these same people are now downsizing their lives, and one of the first things they sell are the "vacation homes", even though they've sometimes acted as primary residences. As housing prices fall, the second home markets take huge hits. Given the choice of one or the other, people usually keep their primary residences in the cities and suburbs because most have to work and cannot commute from these far flung areas. There is actually a very small portion of the population who are wealthy and don't have to work.

What we saw, in terms of housing costs over the past few decades, was completely unsustainable, and now it's time to pay the piper. We will likely never see such an extraordinary increase in prices again in our lifetimes. There is a fundamental shift underway right now, and it's in the direction of frugality and a more sustainable lifestyle. That doesn't bode well for monstrous, expensive properties and most second home markets.
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Old 01-12-2010, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,250,313 times
Reputation: 6815
Quote:
Originally Posted by NomadicBear View Post
For the past 20 years, innumerable small vacation areas across this vast country, much like Durango, have had a growing disconnect between the cost of living and local wages. Most of this price discrepancy is in the form of housing, though necessities such as food, etc. are higher as well. This was driven by the wealthy buying multiple homes, especially as prices on their primary homes increased, and also the desires of many to "escape" the bigger cities, and live in what were historically vacation areas.

This model is now broken. A lot of these same people are now downsizing their lives, and one of the first things they sell are the "vacation homes", even though they've sometimes acted as primary residences. As housing prices fall, the second home markets take huge hits. Given the choice of one or the other, people usually keep their primary residences in the cities and suburbs because most have to work and cannot commute from these far flung areas. There is actually a very small portion of the population who are wealthy and don't have to work.

What we saw, in terms of housing costs over the past few decades, was completely unsustainable, and now it's time to pay the piper. We will likely never see such an extraordinary increase in prices again in our lifetimes. There is a fundamental shift underway right now, and it's in the direction of frugality and a more sustainable lifestyle. That doesn't bode well for monstrous, expensive properties and most second home markets.
Don't bet the ranch on it. There are still a lot of folks in places like New York and DC who are sitting on piles of (TARP) cash who will keep the home market in places like Durango out of reach of most locals. Also, as companies shift office workers to telecommuters (like mine, which is huge) people will be able to live anywhere and still get big city paychecks. Many will choose to live in scenic spots. Basically we're going to have a two-tiered real estate market of expensive desirable places and a depressed everywhere else. Wealth in this country is centralizing and there are only so many great places for those folks to live.
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Old 01-12-2010, 01:41 PM
 
Location: In my own world
878 posts, read 1,393,686 times
Reputation: 1027
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
Don't bet the ranch on it. There are still a lot of folks in places like New York and DC who are sitting on piles of (TARP) cash who will keep the home market in places like Durango out of reach of most locals. Also, as companies shift office workers to telecommuters (like mine, which is huge) people will be able to live anywhere and still get big city paychecks. Many will choose to live in scenic spots. Basically we're going to have a two-tiered real estate market of expensive desirable places and a depressed everywhere else. Wealth in this country is centralizing and there are only so many great places for those folks to live.
You're dreaming. The real estate market in places like Tahoe has cratered. There are a plethora of rentals available, and rental prices have tanked. Your post shows that you have little understanding of the structural flaws in real estate, and what's in store. Keep drinking that Kool-Aid, but don't be surprised when you get sick.
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Old 01-12-2010, 01:43 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,250,313 times
Reputation: 6815
Quote:
Originally Posted by NomadicBear View Post
You're dreaming. The real estate market in places like Tahoe has cratered. There are a plethora of rentals available, and rental prices have tanked. Your post shows that you have little understanding of the structural flaws in real estate, and what's in store. Keep drinking that Kool-Aid, but don't be surprised when you get sick.
Let's just say I've been around the block a few times and seen this film before. I'm also talking about home prices, not rents.

Last edited by CAVA1990; 01-12-2010 at 01:54 PM..
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Old 01-12-2010, 01:53 PM
 
Location: In my own world
878 posts, read 1,393,686 times
Reputation: 1027
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
Let's just say I've been around the block a few times and seen this film before.
Actually, no you haven't. This country has never before seen a credit bubble like we just experienced. It was credit which drove up the prices in the first place, and to deny that is to not even understand what is happening around you. Your arguments are nothing more than a belief in the "new paradigm" theory which has already been proven false in all markets.

Incline Village, Lake Tahoe, is one of the most expensive, exclusive markets in the entire country, home to extraordinarily wealthy people such as Michael Milken, etc., not "telecommuters" who are absolute peons in comparison. Prices there have cratered almost 50%. The richest of the rich cannot prop up prices in those areas, yet you think a place like Durango is going to hold it's value? Pleeeease....

Last edited by NomadicBear; 01-12-2010 at 02:07 PM..
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Old 01-12-2010, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,250,313 times
Reputation: 6815
Quote:
Originally Posted by NomadicBear View Post
Incline Village, Lake Tahoe, is one of the most expensive, exclusive markets in the entire country, home to extraordinarily wealthy people such as Michael Milken, etc., not "telecommuters" who are absolute peons in comparison. Prices there have cratered almost 50%. The richest of the rich cannot prop up prices in those areas, yet you think a place like Durango is going to hold it's value? Pleeeease....
Forgive me, I thought we are on the Colorado forum. I think Incline is in Nevada, nowhere near or like Durango. I'll stand corrected if the folks in Colorado chime in here and tell us rents or home prices have "cratered" or dropped 50%. Anyone?
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Old 01-12-2010, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,250,313 times
Reputation: 6815
Also, show me proof that prices of same homes in Incline have dropped by 50%. That hasn't even happened in the Bay Area or Reno. According to stats I'm looking at, the selling price per sq. ft. in Incline has dropped 16% since last year, nowhere near 50%.

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/In...illage-Nevada/

Here are listing price stats for Durango. Prices are flat, not declining significantly.

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Durango-Colorado/

Last edited by CAVA1990; 01-12-2010 at 05:27 PM..
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Old 01-12-2010, 05:53 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,250,313 times
Reputation: 6815
Quote:
Originally Posted by NomadicBear View Post
home to extraordinarily wealthy people such as Michael Milken, etc.,
and tell me how these super rich folk are hurting right now? Last I heard they're earning rather sizeable bonuses. Plus the stock market is kicking butt. What am I missing?
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