Colorado and the West is running out of water . . . (Denver: established neighborhood, vehicles)

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Here's the real fact: Essentially, every acre of Colorado land that is turned into suburbia in Colorado takes at least one acre of irrigated agricultural land out of production. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

There is no shortage of cropland in Colorado or anywhere in the US. Don't get too high!

[brightdoglover]

Add- for those who insist that Colorado isn't densely populated, yes, that's true. There are also people who point out how much "empty" land there is in places like Texas, so why worry about overpopulation?
This manages to ignore the fact that square footage/acreage isn't the measure of quality of life or even the possibility of it, in the U.S. or anywhere.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by Katiana

There is no shortage of cropland in Colorado or anywhere in the US.

Another "urban legend." Let's look at the real story, starting locally with a couple in Colorado. Every minute of every hour of every day, the Ogallala Aquifer is depleting. To the uninitiated, it supplies the lion's share of irrigation water for crops on the Great Plains, including a good chunk of Colorado's Eastern Plains. It IS depleting, there is no argument about that. Already, it is severely impacting areas in the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas, where many thousands upon thousands of acres of previously irrigated land is either reverting to dryland farming or even back to just rangeland as that portion of the aquifer depletes. That drastically lowers crop yields. The only question is how fast the aquifer depletes, but many experts believe that the rate of depletion is accelerating.

Meanwhile, in Colorado's San Luis Valley, the aquifer there is depleting, as well--partly in response to aggressive pumping to pour water into the Rio Grande River to fulfill downstream water compacts with New Mexico and Texas. When land in the SLV is deprived of irrigation water, it goes back to essentially worthless desert scrub. More production lost.

Looking at the bigger picture, topsoil is depleting at an alarming rate all across the US Farm Belt. Crops yields are only being maintained by massive application of synthetic fertilizers, much of that non-renewable fossil-fuel based. As those fertilizers become more expensive and less viable, food production on those lands will decrease, as well. I would add that the topsoil/crop nutrient depletion problem is not confined to the US, but is a worldwide problem.

None of the above addresses farmland lost to development. According to the American Farmland Trust, between 2002 and 2007, over 4 millions acres of agricultural land--an area the size of Massachusetts--was lost to development in the US. In many cases, it is the most productive and prime agricultural land that is lost to development (certainly true in Colorado). AFT notes that nearly 91% of American fruit and 78% of our vegetables are produced on land in "urban-influenced" areas where land loss potential to urbanization is highest. As is the case with other agricultural problems, the rate of ag land being lost to development appears to be accelerating.

Meanwhile, we are adding 150 mouths to feed PER MINUTE to the world population. Anyone who thinks that this can lead anywhere other than to a catastrophe is 100% completely delusional. People desperately want to listen to a "Mommy"--like they did when they were a little kid--who tells them everything is going to be OK, even when every piece of evidence points to the fact that it won't be. Unlike "Mommy," though, reality is a harsh mistress, and she can throw us under the bus if we don't change course, no matter how much Mommy tells us it's OK to keep doing what we've been doing.

[smdensbcs]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Unlike "Mommy," though, reality is a harsh mistress

The "Mommy" in my household can be a pretty harsh mistress at times. Be that as it may, and acknowledging the apparent reality that you almost never respond to my posts, as if I'm not actually here in a twilight-zone sort of way (du-du-du-du-du-du-du-du), am I right in understanding your belief/prediction that Malthus was, in fact, right, just 200+ years too early in his Nostradamus-like clarity, and the subsequent increase in agricultural productivity since 1800 was a sort of smoke-and-mirrors statistical fluke, perhaps the result of blind luck such as Humbolt stumbling upon millions of tons of fertilizer-rich bird guano off the western coast of South America? As the bird guano (the proverbial "Mommy" I presume you're referring to) is now finally depleted and gone like the wind, the image of hundreds of millions of suburbanites (along with billions of third-world peasants) starving to death is the harsh new reality we all should prepare our minds (and our Mad-Max survival vehicles) to deal with? I'm simply trying to process here, honestly not being argumentative.

Do you have any time-frame estimation as to when the mass starvation will begin? I ask this because I'd like to know when I can safely stop paying the state-mandated auto-registration fees which are nothing thinly-disguised taxes and I thought TABOR meant I didn't have to PAY taxes anymore (though I want my unemployment and my medicare and my social security gol-dangit)! When the rural-urban rapture begins (rural folks survive; city folks run to "Mommy" then all DIE DIE DIE), I'll at least be able to stop paying these confiscatory taxes to the communist governor.

[Katarina Witt]

Farmland Farmland Everywhere: Study Finds No Shortage of Farmland In US | Competitive Enterprise Institute

Ok, this is an article from 1998 and the association it represents seems to be as much of an advocacy group as any other, but I have read in other places that there is not shortage of farmland in the US. In Illinois, 80% of the land is in cropland. One only has to look around to see that the biggest food problem in the US is not underproduction but over-consumption. In addition, food prices are lower now than they ever have been, another indication there is no shortage. The situation is the same throughout much of the "developed world", "first world", whatever you want to call it.

40 years ago when Paul Ehrlich was talking about the world running out of food, no one envisioned the drop in the birth rates in Japan, Europe, the US and even some developing countries. Mexico's birthrate is just slightly above replacement level now. The US is pretty much right at replacement, and in some states much lower. The western US has higher birth rates than the eastern part of the country. Lest someone think it is all the hispanics who drive up the birth rate in the west, research shows that hispanic birthrates are similar to that of others after one or two generations in the US. Japan in particular is in a bad spot; it discourages immigration and will soon have more people that need to be taken care of than caregivers.

[phetaroi]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Here's the real fact: Essentially, every acre of Colorado land that is turned into suburbia in Colorado takes at least one acre of irrigated agricultural land out of production. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

So I guess through all these posts you've really been saying that farmers are stupid to farm in Colorado due to the aridity.

Ok, thanks for the lesson!

[phetaroi]

Originally Posted by brightdoglover

Add- for those who insist that Colorado isn't densely populated, yes, that's true. There are also people who point out how much "empty" land there is in places like Texas, so why worry about overpopulation?
This manages to ignore the fact that square footage/acreage isn't the measure of quality of life or even the possibility of it, in the U.S. or anywhere.

From Wikipedia: "The total fertility rate in the United States estimated for 2009 is 2.01 children per woman, which is below the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1.[10] However, U.S. population growth is among the highest in industrialized countries,[11] since the vast majority of these have below-replacement fertility rates and the U.S. has higher levels of immigration.[12][13] The United States Census Bureau shows population increase of 0.91% for the twelve-month periods ending in July 2011.[14] Nonetheless, though high by industrialized country standards, this is below the world average annual rate of 1.092%.[11]"

[jwiley]

More articles on the weld co problems, trying to get the governor involved now.

Weld Co. asks to meet with governor on drought - Longmont Times-Call

Also a report on the snowpack being only 2% of normal.
Colorado's extremely low snowpack pushes wildfire risk higher - The Denver Post

While I certainly do not think we are all going to starve due to lack of crops, I do think that when the oil field goes bust, there is going to be a serious decline in the standard of living for people in the state of Colorado.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by phetaroi

So I guess through all these posts you've really been saying that farmers are stupid to farm in Colorado due to the aridity.

Ok, thanks for the lesson!

Another fact reported in the study that I quoted above is that irrigated farmland in the United States is the most diverse and productive farmland that we have. What seems stupid to me is drying that productive land up to water Kentucky Bluegrass. But, I guess that "city-slickers" who have never farmed an acre in their life can not be made to understand such a simple concept.

As an aside, I was in Grand Junction yesterday. I watched a man wade clear across the Colorado River with the water never getting above his knees. In a good year at this time, the river would be at least twice to three times as wide at that point and the water would be well over his head at the center of the channel. I have NEVER seen the Colorado River that low in June--in over a half-century. Think about it.

[jim9251]

I thought this was interesting-

River flows @ cubic feet per second:

Colorado River at Utah state line:

currently >2550
median >15400
Low in 2002 >2420
Max 1952 >48800

Gunnison River at Delta:

currently >734
median >2570
Low in 1977 >303
Max in 1984 >12100

Uncompahgre River at Ridgway:

currently >204
median >580
Low in 2002 >162
Max in 1978 >1200