Will DFW be hit hard by next recession or can it get away with it?? (Dallas: 2014, how much)

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by move4ward

Let me google that for you
Let me google that for you

NYC languished behind DFW and the rest of the country. Between 2009-10 and 2014, there was barely in drop in the unemployment rate compared to Dallas or even the entire country.

The foreclosure crisis is still alive and kicking in NYC. Prices took much longer to recover. While prices have recovered, many homeowners are struggling with reduced incomes and can't afford the mortgage payment.

Not all of New York’s housing market is recovering | New York Post


Soaring home values push foreclosure volumes to lowest level in 15 years | Dallas Morning News


I don't see any evidence that NYC ever completely recovered from the last recession. Forget about recovering faster than Dallas or other major employment centers like Los Angeles or San Francisco.

1. I never claimed that NYC completely recovered from the last recession. I was simply clarifying what I thought the OP meant.

2. "Let me google that for you" is the snarkiest possible thing a person can say on the internet. It's condescending and entirely unwarranted. Further, your little "let me google that for you" link was to information comparing NYC's unemployment rate to DFW's unemployment rate. What on earth would that have to do with my post?

I've seen several people use that "let me google that for you" crap before, and guess what? Not a single one of them did it in the right context -- yourself included. If a person creates a thread asking "What's the weather supposed to be like tomorrow?" then I understand that response. If someone makes a post looking for information that is clearly obtainable with a quick Google search, sure. I didn't do that. I simply clarified what I believed the OP meant. Does "let me google that for you" only allow low-IQ folks to link to it?

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

1. I never claimed that NYC completely recovered from the last recession. I was simply clarifying what I thought the OP meant.

2. "Let me google that for you" is the snarkiest possible thing a person can say on the internet. It's condescending and entirely unwarranted. Further, your little "let me google that for you" link was to information comparing NYC's unemployment rate to DFW's unemployment rate. What on earth would that have to do with my post?

I've seen several people use that "let me google that for you" crap before, and guess what? Not a single one of them did it in the right context -- yourself included. If a person creates a thread asking "What's the weather supposed to be like tomorrow?" then I understand that response. If someone makes a post looking for information that is clearly obtainable with a quick Google search, sure. I didn't do that. I simply clarified what I believed the OP meant. Does "let me google that for you" only allow low-IQ folks to link to it?

My comments were directed the other person's comments on "NYC came back way stronger.", which would involve a full recovery from the recession. It has not come back stronger. Apparently, I did not understand what he meant.

Thanks for your personal comments to me.

Best of luck to you.

[EDS_]

No one knows.

However, over the last several decades recessions have hit Texas later than the rest of the country plus our downturns have been less dramatic and shorter. All of that even more so for DFW.

I'd be surprised if the next downturn was any different.

I'd suspect the following are some of the reasons DFW misses a lot of recessionary pain in no order:

1. Much of our local economy is tied to international trade. Trade downturns tend to not mirror US GDP downturns precisely.

2. We have a lot of corporate, regional, district HQs etc. Big employers seem to hold on to people further up the food chain to some degree come layoff time.

3. We largely avoid unwarranted real-estate price increases avoiding at least some downside risk.

4. Dallas, excepting conventions and a few other gatherings, is not a high value vacation/tourism spot. Places like Miami, Vegas, LA and SF lose a lot of tourism business during national downturns.

5. Wages versus COL and taxes, real after tax take home pay if you will, is much better in DFW than most cities - ergo the people who are working have more money to spend and that helps prop up the local economy during tough times.

6. Home prices and net migration........home prices versus real take home pay and national averages underscore what a great deal housing is around DFW. People form other parts of the country want to join in on that.

7. DFW and healthcare...........DFW and especially Dallas is a healthcare hub and healthcare is largely recession resistant as the demand curve for most healthcare is more or less flat.

8. For whatever reasons people in DFW/Texas are less afraid to spend than most many others. That fact helps during downturns.

9. There's sort of a working economic postulate that DFW more than any big metro in The US has such a diversified economy that diversification alone offers significant recession protection, consider IT/high tech, legal, insurance, banking, aviation/air travel and freight/aerospace manufacturing, medical, international trade, very significant light manufacturing + some heavy manufacturing and auto manufacturing, DFW is a super-freight transit and warehousing hub, construction/construction services, defense, retail sales plus, precision tool making, some oil and gas and many more plus all the HQs.


I'm more worried about a downturn now than I was a few months ago. The last quarter's GDP growth of .7% is very worrying as the current quarter's growth is likely to be poor if for no reason other than the big snowstorm last week.

[sanz7887]

layoffs have begun all across

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by sanz7887

layoffs have begun all across

So the economy added 304,000 jobs in January, 15,500ish of those in DFW, and you want to focus on a handful of layoffs?

FWIIW the Fort Worth Arlington MD added the most jobs ever in December and Dallas-Plano-Irving more than that.

[tcualum]

Originally Posted by sanz7887

layoffs have begun all across

All across what?

[Synott]

And when is this so called recession supposed to happen?

[MinesotaUser1]

Originally Posted by EDS_

No one knows.

However, over the last several decades recessions have hit Texas later than the rest of the country plus our downturns have been less dramatic and shorter. All of that even more so for DFW.

I'd be surprised if the next downturn was any different.

I'd suspect the following are some of the reasons DFW misses a lot of recessionary pain in no order:

1. Much of our local economy is tied to international trade. Trade downturns tend to not mirror US GDP downturns precisely.

2. We have a lot of corporate, regional, district HQs etc. Big employers seem to hold on to people further up the food chain to some degree come layoff time.

3. We largely avoid unwarranted real-estate price increases avoiding at least some downside risk.

4. Dallas, excepting conventions and a few other gatherings, is not a high value vacation/tourism spot. Places like Miami, Vegas, LA and SF lose a lot of tourism business during national downturns.

5. Wages versus COL and taxes, real after tax take home pay if you will, is much better in DFW than most cities - ergo the people who are working have more money to spend and that helps prop up the local economy during tough times.

6. Home prices and net migration........home prices versus real take home pay and national averages underscore what a great deal housing is around DFW. People form other parts of the country want to join in on that.

7. DFW and healthcare...........DFW and especially Dallas is a healthcare hub and healthcare is largely recession resistant as the demand curve for most healthcare is more or less flat.

8. For whatever reasons people in DFW/Texas are less afraid to spend than most many others. That fact helps during downturns.

9. There's sort of a working economic postulate that DFW more than any big metro in The US has such a diversified economy that diversification alone offers significant recession protection, consider IT/high tech, legal, insurance, banking, aviation/air travel and freight/aerospace manufacturing, medical, international trade, very significant light manufacturing + some heavy manufacturing and auto manufacturing, DFW is a super-freight transit and warehousing hub, construction/construction services, defense, retail sales plus, precision tool making, some oil and gas and many more plus all the HQs.


I'm more worried about a downturn now than I was a few months ago. The last quarter's GDP growth of .7% is very worrying as the current quarter's growth is likely to be poor if for no reason other than the big snowstorm last week.

I agree that DFW is not affected much in the last recession. Because prices were never increased this fast earlier.

Now the scenario is all together different. DFW is became more popular now in this decade. So many companies moved. Real estate prices increased drastically. (Of course market slowed down in 2nd half of 2018).

For example, my close friend bought new house in frisco for 360k in 2014. They are still selling same plan in same community but smaller lots and selling it for 700+ . Its almost doubled. Personally i feel its overvalued in some of the places. But sure, city is grown , so many people moved each year and dallas is more popular now. but this much drastic increase is insane.

Do you know you cannot find 3000+ new house less than $600k in Frisco isd/ Plano isd with decent backyard? this makes me feel that house prices are unaffordable as of now.

[TashaPosh]

Originally Posted by EDS_

So the economy added 304,000 jobs in January, 15,500ish of those in DFW, and you want to focus on a handful of layoffs?

FWIIW the Fort Worth Arlington MD added the most jobs ever in December and Dallas-Plano-Irving more than that.

This.
People just keep coming...
It's not likely they will be affected too much...at least in the foreseeable future.

[TexanByMarriage]

Originally Posted by MinesotaUser1

Do you know you cannot find 3000+ new house less than $600k in Frisco isd/ Plano isd with decent backyard? this makes me feel that house prices are unaffordable as of now.

Do you know what that would cost in a different metroplex? A massive house on a large piece of land?