Will DFW be hit hard by next recession or can it get away with it?? (Dallas: new house, unemployed)

[TheOverdog]

Almost totally wrong.

LOL. Then why don't you explain to everyone how homeless, the unemployed, fast food workers, and children are individually worth $174k each to the Midland economy, and then for extra credit you can explain why we can see this fact per capita, but the best minds the world haven't gone to Midland to recreate this amount of excess for their own economies.

The economy is for the people, not the other way around.

The economy may be 'for the people', but GDP is a very specific measurement, which has very different effects depending on the person doing the labor. For example, if you park your car for free, then you are not contributing to GDP. If you pay to park, you are. If you pay someone to wash your dishes, then you are contributing to GDP. If you pay cash to your landscaping service or mow your lawn yourself, not contributing to GDP. If you pay Brightview Inc, then you are. If your wife stays home and takes care of your kid, not contributing to GDP. This is not a critique of the calculation of GDP but rather just showing that it is not a measurement of the economy 'for the people'.


There are things that are consistent across the population, and therefore 'per capita' measurements make sense, high school graduations, arms, teeth, but the total economic output of a region divided by the population isn't one of them. If you want to measure a region's economic output, then number of people employed in each industry divided by its economic output is better. Don't be lazy.

[MinesotaUser1]

Originally Posted by nurider2002

I live in Collin County in a relatively new development. All of the homes are less than five years old. The numbers of folks selling is somewhat shocking, considering most have been in their homes less than 3 years. The reasons many of my neighbors are giving are the high property taxes. Many are relocating to neighboring states as a result. I guess I always thought the lack of a state income tax balanced out the property taxes but I think folks getting that huge bill once a year is more than they bargained for. A recession would be a big deal for a lot of folks in North Texas.

Below is one of my articles that shows dallas housing is overpriced. Only time can tell whether its correct or not.


D-FW home prices are 10 to 14 percent overheated, Wall Street analyst study says
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...ent-overheated

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by MinesotaUser1

Below is one of my articles that shows dallas housing is overpriced. Only time can tell whether its correct or not.


D-FW home prices are 10 to 14 percent overheated, Wall Street analyst study says
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...ent-overheated

Christ. If one more person posts a story quoting Fitch ratings as their source that the Dallas housing market is overpriced, they need to be permanently banned from this site.

[justsomeguy]

Originally Posted by Katana49

Christ. If one more person posts a story quoting Fitch ratings as their source that the Dallas housing market is overpriced, they need to be permanently banned from this site.

Suppress free speech much?

Should Fitch also be banned from printing their articles about Dallas housing market valuations?

Should only articles that say Dallas housing market is at value or undervalued be allowed to be printed?

[MinesotaUser1]

Originally Posted by Katana49

they need to be permanently banned from this site.

Sure sir. Have your own website forum and include only people who write what do you like.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by justsomeguy

Suppress free speech much?

Should Fitch also be banned from printing their articles about Dallas housing market valuations?

Should only articles that say Dallas housing market is at value or undervalued be allowed to be printed?

Fitch has been claiming that the Dallas market is overvalued... for the past 3 years. They've been wrong all that time as prices have continued to rise. Any article quoting Fitch is referring to an old and flawed analysis. If anyone was listening to Fitch on guidance when to buy a home, they made a huge mistake, as a 400k home was a 300k home back when they said the market was overvalued, and now they've missed the boat.

Originally Posted by MinesotaUser1

Sure sir. Have your own website forum and include only people who write what do you like.

It would have a lot more intelligent posters, let me tell you.

[justsomeguy]

Originally Posted by Katana49

Fitch has been claiming that the Dallas market is overvalued... for the past 3 years. They've been wrong all that time as prices have continued to rise. Any article quoting Fitch is referring to an old and flawed analysis. If anyone was listening to Fitch on guidance when to buy a home, they made a huge mistake, as a 400k home was a 300k home back when they said the market was overvalued, and now they've missed the boat.

You do realize that people were warning of a housing bubble in the early 2000s, right? 4 to 6 years before the bubble actually popped? Should their voices have been silenced because prices continued to rise before the bubble popped?

I don't know what will happen with housing, but the desire to suppress unpopular negative opinions on a message forum is rather astounding. Fitch, permabears, CD users, certainly have the right to express a contrarian opinion on things.

Should I be banned from this forum for posting the link below, regarding Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's opinion on housing? Should Shiller be silenced?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...ays-2018-10-30

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by justsomeguy

You do realize that people were warning of a housing bubble in the early 2000s, right? 4 to 6 years before the bubble actually popped? Should their voices have been silenced because prices continued to rise before the bubble popped?

I don't know what will happen with housing, but the desire to suppress unpopular negative opinions on a message forum is rather astounding. Fitch, permabears, CD users, certainly have the right to express a contrarian opinion on things.

Should I be banned from this forum for posting the link below, regarding Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's opinion on housing? Should Shiller be silenced?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...ays-2018-10-30

Not when they post the exact same thing multiple times they shouldn't.


You've posted a link from a well respected economist who says himself that "momentum has been clipped." That's a far cry from saying that the Dallas home market is overvalued. Do I really need to explain to you that your link and a 3 yr old one from Fitch that has been disproven over the last 3 years is different?


The internet gives people of dubious logical function a means to express themselves... unfortunately. And trust me, that particular Fitch article or ones linking to it have been trotted out ad nauseam by a couple of posters who have continually displayed a distinct lack of knowledge of the housing market or finance in general. In the "Softening" thread, that same article was brought out by the same people multiple times. I guess they think that bringing up the same article serves as backing up their original assertion when they posted it the first (or the 4th, or the 8th) time. At that point, it's nothing more than spam. You need to learn to recognize the difference.

[MinesotaUser1]

Originally Posted by justsomeguy

You do realize that people were warning of a housing bubble in the early 2000s, right? 4 to 6 years before the bubble actually popped? Should their voices have been silenced because prices continued to rise before the bubble popped?

I don't know what will happen with housing, but the desire to suppress unpopular negative opinions on a message forum is rather astounding. Fitch, permabears, CD users, certainly have the right to express a contrarian opinion on things.

Should I be banned from this forum for posting the link below, regarding Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's opinion on housing? Should Shiller be silenced?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...ays-2018-10-30

We dont have to answer people who do personal comments. I hope everybody in this public forum respect individual opinion whether it is right or wrong .

We are adults. I really dont have anything to say if they are not matured enough and comment others. I never do personal comments and dont go there.

Anyways thanks for supporting.

I have answer to every statement that person made. But i do not want to go in that route and its no use to anyone. Because this channel is not for personal arguments.

[justsomeguy]

Originally Posted by Katana49

Not when they post the exact same thing multiple times they shouldn't.


You've posted a link from a well respected economist who says himself that "momentum has been clipped." That's a far cry from saying that the Dallas home market is overvalued. Do I really need to explain to you that your link and a 3 yr old one from Fitch that has been disproven over the last 3 years is different?


The internet gives people of dubious logical function a means to express themselves... unfortunately. And trust me, that particular Fitch article or ones linking to it have been trotted out ad nauseam by a couple of posters who have continually displayed a distinct lack of knowledge of the housing market or finance in general. In the "Softening" thread, that same article was brought out by the same people multiple times. I guess they think that bringing up the same article serves as backing up their original assertion when they posted it the first (or the 4th, or the 8th) time. At that point, it's nothing more than spam. You need to learn to recognize the difference.

Except the Fitch article that was linked is just from a few weeks ago? Dated Jan 23rd and references 2018 numbers.

Banning someone for referencing a recent article by a Wall Street analyst firm stating Dallas market is overvalued is against free speech, pure and simple. Are you only allowed to post here if you think the Dallas market is undervalued? Ludicrous.

Here is what Shiller says in the article I linked to:

"Famed housing-watcher Robert Shiller said Tuesday that the weakening housing market reminded him of the last market top, just before the subprime housing bubble burst, slashing prices by nearly a third and costing millions of Americans their homes.

“It could be that we’re primed to repeat it because it’s in our memory and we’re thinking about it but still I wouldn’t expect something as severe as the Great Financial Crisis coming on right now. There could be a significant correction or bear market, but I’m waiting and seeing now.”

If Nobel Laureate economist Shiller is acknowledging there "could be a significant correction", then why give so much grief to people on a message board stating similar opinions? Going so far as to suggest banning them from posting??