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The lack of affordability given the increase in home prices and especially interest rates is a very recent phenomenon (really over the past year and half) that would not even be captured in the available data yet. Not sure what data you'd have to support your assertion. Also, why wouldn't families with children also not be incentivised to move? How do you know that families without children didn't move to Highlands Ranch prior to when the data was captured in anticipation of having children and have subsequently had children?
I can say that per Neustar data (demographics company to which I have access), shows a slight decline in the percentage of married families with children within Highlands Ranch, from 39.3% in 2010, to 38.0% in 2023, but an overall increase in number.
Zonda/Metrostudy data (a company that tracks all housing activity in the major housing markets across the country and to which I also have access) shows that there have not been any new housing lot deliveries within Highlands Ranch since the end of 2021. The vast majority of those were in two projects - Canyon Village, a small lot single family project built by the homebuilder Taylor Morrison but that now has no units remaining located off MacArthur Ranch and Quebec, and Verona, a townhome project being built by Century Communities and nearly sold out, located just north of C-470 and south of County Line Rd (I forgot about that project because of it's location it's not in what is technically usually considered the main part of Highlands Ranch).
There are only two future projects currently left to build in Highlands Ranch. One is a 72-unit condo project also right off County Line Rd, and the other is a small, 48 lot single family parcel in Westridge portion of HR near Highlands Ranch Gold Club. I suspect the latter may never be built given neighborhood opposition.
Well I certainly don't have access to the same data as you do, so I can't analyze it in the way you can. I do suspect that if housing prices were to go down again the population of areas like HR would see a major boost.
Well I certainly don't have access to the same data as you do, so I can't analyze it in the way you can. I do suspect that if housing prices were to go down again the population of areas like HR would see a major boost.
I double-checked to confirm that the OP was interested in the population aspect, not the geographical footprint which is fairly well set for a built-out development.
If empty nesters move out and families with kids can afford to buy in HR then the total population could grow some, but I don't think it will be all that noticeable, and I'm not sure why that matters to the OP.
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Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Highland Ranch - why isn't it growing?
as mentioned...
Highlands Ranch is 'all-grown-up' now. Entering the stage of decline is natural after you have grown up. Most people, families, and subdivisions (and public companies and towns) have BTDT.
There will come a time when properties in HR are being torn down and replaced with new homes (probably has happened already on desirable lots and locations.)
I know that much of the above has been covered in other posts -- and I agree with what other people have already said. However, FWIW (and I lived about ten miles from Highlands Ranch until 2020), these are my thoughts based mainly on what I observed three years ago:
1. I agree that there is very little room for any more developments.
2. Most of the people who bought about 20-40 years ago are now retirement age or close to it, and their kids have moved out. Highlands Ranch is (or at least it was) VERY 'white bread' suburbia and I doubt if it would appeal to most young childless people.
3. It is an expensive area, and with high interest rates now, people are not as inclined to move unless they are moving to an area where the homes are much less expensive.
4. Metro Denver in general was losing its appeal to many people even before we moved. Even though Highlands Ranch is/was at least 20 minutes from downtown Denver, many people were turned off by the deterioration of downtown Denver. (And, yes, that might be opinion, but downtown had become so unappealing that my husband and I hadn't gone for a 'dinner and theater' night since about 2014,and if one can believe some recent news reports, it has just gotten worse in the past five years.)
5. C-470 was something of a nightmare commute. When we left, there was major construction going on with C-470, so I don't know if it is still bad, but unless people work at the DTC, I can't imagine many people being happy with the daily commute.
Again, these are all just opinions from three years ago, so I apologize if any of the above information is incorrect.
I know that much of the above has been covered in other posts -- and I agree with what other people have already said. However, FWIW (and I lived about ten miles from Highlands Ranch until 2020), these are my thoughts based mainly on what I observed three years ago:
1. I agree that there is very little room for any more developments. True.
2. Most of the people who bought about 20-40 years ago are now retirement age or close to it, and their kids have moved out. Highlands Ranch is (or at least it was) VERY 'white bread' suburbia and I doubt if it would appeal to most young childless people. With regards to most of the single family housing stock, this is true. There are however a range of product types in HR, from lock and leave condos, to many different types of townhomes, duplex, and patio home style subdivisions. Those could certainly (and DO!) appeal to the older, empty nester demographics.
3. It is an expensive area, and with high interest rates now, people are not as inclined to move unless they are moving to an area where the homes are much less expensive. Also true. Basically every area south of Denver is expensive.
4. Metro Denver in general was losing its appeal to many people even before we moved. Even though Highlands Ranch is/was at least 20 minutes from downtown Denver, many people were turned off by the deterioration of downtown Denver. (And, yes, that might be opinion, but downtown had become so unappealing that my husband and I hadn't gone for a 'dinner and theater' night since about 2014,and if one can believe some recent news reports, it has just gotten worse in the past five years.) I would say downtown Denver reached its nadir in 2020 and 2021, but has since bounced back a little bit. Still not what it was in 2014 or 2015 but there are signs of life. RINO is booming and has been for some time, while the Union Station redo helped breathe more life into that area of LoDo. Whenever they finally finish the 16th St Mall redo that should help the area, as well, but man do they ever REALLY need to finish that project because each day those businesses along it are struggling.
5. C-470 was something of a nightmare commute. When we left, there was major construction going on with C-470, so I don't know if it is still bad, but unless people work at the DTC, I can't imagine many people being happy with the daily commute. They have added express lanes along C-470 now in both directions. It's helped relieve SOME of the congestion but it's still bad. I do feel like the move to remote work, WFH, helped a bit, though. And I'd imagine a decent proportion of HR residents have that option or work at DTC/Meridian/Lone Tree as you said.
Again, these are all just opinions from three years ago, so I apologize if any of the above information is incorrect.
My anecdote.
In 1991, my friends had a semi-custom house built in Highlands Ranch. 4000 sqft + 2000 sqft walk-out basement. Two parents and 3 children. The view off the back deck is awesome (Pikes to Longs).
Today the children have moved out. Just 2 people living in 6000 sqft.
And a 60% plunge in population. Yes the sample size is small.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes
....
Today the children have moved out. Just 2 people living in 6000 sqft.
And a 60% plunge in population. Yes the sample size is small.
Less population with same (and growing) tax base! And less need / pressure on infrastructure, including schools. Seems like a GIFT to most cities
Old people bring high value spending.
1) medical services
2) financial services
3) higher end food and vehicle spending
4) more volunteer hours as benefit to community services.
5) less traffic
6) more time and money spent within the community
Hope someone is grooming and gleaning the benefits of the changing demographics to the community.
There are 4 rec centers in Highlands ranch with all range of kid activities and programs (+ skate park, batting cages, disc golf, equestrian center, fishing ponds, community gardens etc.). Nice selection of Sr. activities too.
We have hiked the trails in Highlands Ranch and the system seems pretty extensive (70+ miles of trails). Nice amount of parks also (2,644 acres of open space, 26 parks and 4 dog parks). https://www.highlandsranch.org/explo...n-space-trails
It is a very high density neighborhood. Lots are small. Backing to open space or the trails gives you a greater sense of openness.
I think it is a great place for kids and we have considered it as a possible retirement area as it has lots of amenities in a safe/sanitized environment without buying into a 55+.
Less population with same (and growing) tax base! And less need / pressure on infrastructure, including schools. Seems like a GIFT to most cities
Old people bring high value spending.
1) medical services
2) financial services
3) higher end food and vehicle spending
4) more volunteer hours as benefit to community services.
5) less traffic
6) more time and money spent within the community
Hope someone is grooming and gleaning the benefits of the changing demographics to the community.
Thank you. I've said for years in these forums that retirees are a good business for cities and states to be in.
Retirees bring 'free' money to areas where we live. Our money comes from distant Social Security or pension fund payouts or from our own retirement accounts -- but we spend our money locally.
We don't burden school systems with more students but we do pay property taxes that support local school systems.
We don't need jobs so there's no need to give tax breaks to companies to locate there.
We don't work 9-to-5 jobs so we don't burden the local road networks at rush hour times.
The vast majority of us are settled, no longer a rowdy bunch, and rarely require police or court interventions.
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Less population with same (and growing) tax base! And less need / pressure on infrastructure, including schools. Seems like a GIFT to most cities
Old people bring high value spending.
1) medical services
2) financial services
3) higher end food and vehicle spending
4) more volunteer hours as benefit to community services.
5) less traffic
6) more time and money spent within the community
Hope someone is grooming and gleaning the benefits of the changing demographics to the community.
They are opening a Senior Center in Highlands Ranch in May 2024. Currently the Sr. programs are offered through the rec. centers and HOA. I imagine this will be a new gathering spot and some of the programs will locate there. https://www.highlandsranch.org/recre...r-construction
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60% plunge
