Highland Ranch - why isn't it growing? (Highlands Ranch, Morrison: HOA, condo)

[WestGuest]

Highland ranchh seems to have great schools, low crime and an educated populace.. It hasnt been growing and the population of 105,000 has actually declined according to some data.


Any ideas?

[2bindenver]

Highlands Ranch is a subdivision not a city. It is mostly built out. This community started building in the ‘80s.

[davidv]

Scarcity of water is a huge factor in limiting development.

[ShampooBanana]

As others said, Highlands Ranch is now completely built out. I think the last housing was built in about 2018 when the last phase of the Backcountry subdivision was finished. Population decline is likely because people are having fewer kids nowadays, so fewer people per household.

[history nerd]

It was a master planned community and, as others have hinted at, that plan is now complete. It is now what it was always meant to be, a relatively wealthy unincorporated suburb.

The original master plan was fairly low density, and there is no municipality to push for higher density, the HOA has no incentive to allow for more density as that would reduce property values and there is no traditional tax base to worry about, I figure HR will stay basically the way it is from here on out.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

As others said, Highlands Ranch is now completely built out. I think the last housing was built in about 2018 when the last phase of the Backcountry subdivision was finished. Population decline is likely because people are having fewer kids nowadays, so fewer people per household.

Population decline is real. If anyone wants to discuss that then I invite them to enjoy a thread in Great Debates titled "The Shrinking Global Population" but please read the special rules that apply to posting in that forum.

[history nerd]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Population decline is real. If anyone wants to discuss that then I invite them to enjoy a thread in Great Debates titled "The Shrinking Global Population" but please read the special rules that apply to posting in that forum.

I mean, population decline IS real but I would guess that the situation in HR has more to do with high house prices and interest rates preventing neighborhoods from turning over and less to do with global trends.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by history nerd

I mean, population decline IS real but I would guess that the situation in HR has more to do with high house prices and interest rates preventing neighborhoods from turning over and less to do with global trends.

Very little to do with house prices. Housing vacancy rates in HR are as low as they've ever been. When no more housing is being built (number of living units remains stagnant), but there is a gradual decline in number of people per household (declining birthrates, fewer marriages meaning more single householders, etc), there is naturally going to be a decrease in the population, regardless of anything else.

[history nerd]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

Very little to do with house prices. Housing vacancy rates in HR are as low as they've ever been. When no more housing is being built (number of living units remains stagnant), but there is a gradual decline in number of people per household (declining birthrates, fewer marriages meaning more single householders, etc), there is naturally going to be a decrease in the population, regardless of anything else.

The neighborhood is not turning over. Old folks w/o kids are not incentivised to move out in the current market and young folks with kids cannot easily afford to move in. All despite the fact that HR was designed with families in mind not empty-nesters.

Birth rates may have some impact but there are plenty of young and growing families living elsewhere in the metro.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by history nerd

The neighborhood is not turning over. Old folks w/o kids are not incentivised to move out in the current market and young folks with kids cannot easily afford to move in. All despite the fact that HR was designed with families in mind not empty-nesters.

Birth rates may have some impact but there are plenty of young and growing families living elsewhere in the metro.

The lack of affordability given the increase in home prices and especially interest rates is a very recent phenomenon (really over the past year and half) that would not even be captured in the available data yet. Not sure what data you'd have to support your assertion. Also, why wouldn't families with children also not be incentivised to move? How do you know that families without children didn't move to Highlands Ranch prior to when the data was captured in anticipation of having children and have subsequently had children?

I can say that per Neustar data (demographics company to which I have access), shows a slight decline in the percentage of married families with children within Highlands Ranch, from 39.3% in 2010, to 38.0% in 2023, but an overall increase in number.

Zonda/Metrostudy data (a company that tracks all housing activity in the major housing markets across the country and to which I also have access) shows that there have not been any new housing lot deliveries within Highlands Ranch since the end of 2021. The vast majority of those were in two projects - Canyon Village, a small lot single family project built by the homebuilder Taylor Morrison but that now has no units remaining located off MacArthur Ranch and Quebec, and Verona, a townhome project being built by Century Communities and nearly sold out, located just north of C-470 and south of County Line Rd (I forgot about that project because of it's location it's not in what is technically usually considered the main part of Highlands Ranch).

There are only two future projects currently left to build in Highlands Ranch. One is a 72-unit condo project also right off County Line Rd, and the other is a small, 48 lot single family parcel in Westridge portion of HR near Highlands Ranch Gold Club. I suspect the latter may never be built given neighborhood opposition.