Go East... and become homeless (Detroit, Warren: wood floors, crime, houses)

[YAZ]

Originally Posted by soldierhobo

Comparitevly I paid 1000 a month for rent (split between me and the misses, who is watching over the apt. Until I set up), ownership drops 12000 dollars back into my pocket. Assuming I can command a simar salary ( 30k, degree in Mathematics, veteran, hard working) 1000 + 2000 in property tax still puts me ahead in the game of life. I also figured that the job market for professionals would be less saturated, 60% college attainment in P-town, worse economy than Detroit by far. But its a popular place for Trustafarians. We'll see how that works out in a few months.

I admire your bravery.

Stay safe.

[jonnynonos]

I wish you luck, but the only reason to do what you're doing is if you want to live in/stay in the house. All of those neighborhoods adjacent to Warren have lost between 20-30 percent of their population since 2000,and probably even more since the last census.

I don't know a single person who thinks Detroit's far-flung neighborhoods are going to be "coming back" in the foreseeable or even unforeseeable future.

The solutions you propose are reasonable: And people have been talking about them daily for at least 40 years.

Every single neighborhood save a tiny sliver of downtown continues to hemoraghe population.

Downtown might well come back significantly, but consider that they are, as we speak, practically giving away mansions in Boston Edison right now, and even a neighborhood as beautiful as Indian Village has lost a lot of population.

But, if you want to live where you live because you like it, go for it.

It's good you've armed yourself. Unfortunately there is a very good chance you will need it.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by soldierhobo

Great stuff. OK so Detroit is between a rock and a hard place economically, and reasonably I assume if it reduces size Warren, Madison Heights, ect. Will let the newly unincorporated dwindle and die, because historically they really don't seem to care about Detroit, they are escaping it actually.

I'm not a fan of renegotiating pensions and legacy benefits to much, its a contract, but I kinda like the idea of a tax reduction or holiday, to attract new residents that will stabilize the tax base. Actually, nahhh... Keep taxes high, keep real estate at rock bottom and re-asses based on current market values. I think Meemur was right, at these prices, an economic minority who isn't aware of the historic problems or has no choice will fill the hole. Whether it' jaded coasters, Hmong, Iraqi's, someone, somewhere is yearning to breath free, and doesn't have a few generations of wealth to rely on.

Fix schools, fix crime, and leave real estate at rock bottom. I think tax base will resolve itself, if the ship can actually be righted. I just think the services on Detroit now should start being more efficient, friendly, and realize Detroit cannot compete with the big boys anymore.

I would actually like it the other way around: a relatively moderate priced home of $200,000 - $250,000 in a relatively low tax area (Grand Rapids property taxes are less than 30 mills) with good services and low crime (only 2 murders in GR so far this year) and neighborhoods that are for the most part built out and not burned out. Prices here have rebounded and then some, and we've made almost 30% on our home in about 10 years, or about $100,000. We've probably paid a total of $36,000 in property taxes in that time period. That number would have been at least $84,000 in paid property taxes in Detroit. For what? Fear and streetlights that don't work? And our house would be worth less than we paid! Put your money where it has the opportunity to make money.

The market is speaking loud and clear as to the "value proposition" of living in Detroit. No offense but people who are buying $10,000 houses in Detroit that are still depreciating and hanging on by their fingernails dealing with the fear that you deal with daily/nightly, COMBINED with high taxes are not going to bring the city back. I almost chuckle reading that paragraph I just typed. Of course it's not going to happen.

If you were to entice 10,000 people to buy brand new $100,000 homes or condos in Detroit at a discounted tax rate who actually PAID they're property and city taxes, it would probably make up for the 1/2 of the city that is not paying their taxes now. I repeat, half the city is not paying their property taxes and the city/county cannot afford to go after these 300,000 or so people.

Let's do the math, 10,000 x $100,000 = $1 Billion in real estate investment x a discounted tax of 40 mills (.020)= $20,000,000 a year in new property taxes. Plus not to mention city income tax collections and the stabilization that 10,000 new homes would bring to certain areas.

And that's 10,000 new homeowners, a far far cry from the 50,000 or so homeowners who will leave the city in the next 10 years if all other variables stay the same.

All that lowering assessments does is hurt property values.

[soldierhobo]

That's what is so crazy about Detroit, I cross 8 mile on Scheonhor (sp) and see the welcome to Warren sign. Same housing stock, much nicer area, way better home values. It doesn't really get blue collar until 12th or 13th, but is crime static? Rooted in place? There is no parked van full of masked men or dark shrubbery that could conceal car jackers on 8 mile. It's just history, custom, and the Detroit name.

And I was sitting on my block, I counted 4 Cadillac escalades. Not the ones full of crack dealers or ones with loud stereos, middle aged African Americans. That tells me, they have jobs somewhere, different tastes, but jobs.

The market and the community have spoken, they'd prefer Detroit was a parking lot for the stadiums, and that the far flung neighborhoods would turn into flat freeways. It just doesn't make a lot of sense to an outsider. The auction has some hot properties going for upwards of 20k. Perhaps this mini-migration will expose the far flung communities for the deals they are. Otherwise, I think every one of those migrant groups paying to much in a coastal city should buy up Detroit.

Darn your Michigan B & E laws, a freestanding ice shack is in the ocean and fair play, not willing to risk record to squat my contractually obligated purchase.

[jonnynonos]

It wasn't small mindedness alone that drove people from Detroit. There was/is a very real crime problem, and its schools are among the worst in the nation.

These days much of it is covered in blight. It's not exactly a winning combination.

People didn't flee Detroit all at once, you're talking about a process that took 50 years and is still ongoing.

Anyway, this is all well tread ground. The bottom line is people aren't going to be moving to Detroit to raise their families anytime soon, and with good reason.

There is a community of very liberal minded people in Rosedale Park that are hardcore "we're not moving" types, but their numbers dwindle every year. I think Corktown has a small community like that too, and Indian Village used to. Bless em. It's very admirable. But for most people there is just too high a cost, and at a certain point you ask yourself exactly why you're doing something, and at what cost.

[soldierhobo]

I agree about the schools and crime. If I had a child, this wouldn't be an option at all.

How do you fix a school, though? In my experience closing, even a crumbling school, takes an act of congress and emergency powers. Plus, at some point teachers were credentialed to be competent. I come from the land of good public schools, at least until we stopped funding them. Here, even the charters are mediocre.

I'm a believer that crime is overstated. Crime is at all time low across the nation, and from what I experience, it is restricted to parks, drugs, and those that invite it. Not saying it won't happen, but its no more dangerous than bad parts of other cities. Kids still playing in the street on my block. No one is banging on the porches, hook-in on the corners, or an open air drug market on my street. Maybe I just got lucky, the area around the Heildeburg project did scare me a bit honestly.

[Meemur]

Originally Posted by soldierhobo

Maybe I just got lucky, the area around the Heildeburg project did scare me a bit honestly.

You're also male and I can't see you, but I suspect you have a bad azz vibe about you.

My biggest fears are the young gang bangers who pick on people for sport and meth heads who'll take any risk for the next fix. These people can't be reasoned with and are shoot-on-sight if they invade your house or personal space bubble when you're alone. The other types of criminals are basically cowards and if you look mean, poor, and keep a low profile, they'll generally look for an easier target. I think the gangs have pretty much left your area. There's nothing left that's worth defending and I would think a lot of the drug trade has followed the jobs to more affluent areas. That's worth keeping in mind when you fix up your house. Use PVC. No copper plumbing! PVC has zero resale value.

[soldierhobo]

It helps to be male, but it also helps to look like you have a purpose. My sister got mugged in downtown Portland ( she lives by the Methadone clinic). So, she started wearing a dirty jacket over her work clothes, urban camouflage. It still cracks me up.

Tweakers will steal anything, anywhere. I used to enjoy watching them try and steal municipal metal trashcan lids.

Good tip on the PVC, guess copper grounding rods are out too. If I could only upload pictures of the upside down gas meter someone tried to steal. It took me a few seconds to realize why it was upside down and the pipes were bent around in circles.

[jonnynonos]

Check out the old Detroit News crime map. It will show you how many shootings (at least those that got reported), homicides, suspicious deaths there were in your neighborhood from 2012-March, 2014.

When they say there was a shooting, I don't know if that means someone got hit or a weapon was discharged.

I know people who have had multiple burglaries and I know those whose biggest grievance is having stuff stolen from their garage.

I did know a girl whose dad shot two home invaders, killing one. And another girl whose mother was murdered, but I think her brother was involved in drugs.

It probably largely depends on your particular block.

That being said, as someone who's lived in big cities much of my life, I think "philosophy/street smarts" only goes so far.

At the end of the day the number one way to avoid being a victim is to stay out of bad areas--period.

Anyway, enough ranting. Hope you enjoy the house. Be safe.

[Cliffie]

Welcome to Detroit, my friend -- and it sounds like there's nowhere to go but up. The city needs as many people just like you as it can get -- ready to take the post-apocalyptic landscape in both hands and shake it upside down to start it working again.