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The unemployment rate is probably understated by at least .7. It should be around 5.3 percent, not the 4.6 that's being reported. Over the last year, they've classified about 2 million out of about 3 million potential workers as no longer part of the labor force because it was too hard for them to get a job. Usually, two-thirds of the civilian population enter the labor force in any given year. The normal figure for workers not in the labor force would rise by about 1 million, not 2 million. As a result, the number of unemployed would've risen by another 1 million if not for this statistical sleight of hand.
What? Where do you get this? The Bureau of Labor Statistics says for August 2007, the Unemployment Rate hasn't changed from either a month ago or a year ago. It's 4.6%.
Here are what the unemployment rates were for the last 20 years:
Too Bad the bls really does not track unemployment by true unemployment claims. If you truly believe unemployment rate is 4.6 than you really believe the government to much. For example the U.S. census shows 2005 unemployment rate at 6.9. If I was a betting person I would say it is really around 6.4 to 7.2. I would also recommand look at ces net birth/death rates. I also would look at how they tabulate there data.
Matter of fact this morning the weekly unemployment data was released and some economist said it is an outlier.
Question: How could we have august lose 4000 jobs in a month and 2 months revised down but the unemployment number stated almost unchanged?
Good reference. So the governement will drop people out of the unemployment data if they gave up because they could not find a job. I still consider that unemployed.
What ever happen to the theory that the U.S. need to create 130k to 150k jobs a month to be aligned with population growth. So is 130k jobs created the 0 mark and anything above that would signal growth?
Okay, I am sure most of you here know about the housing market. As a Mortgage banker I saw this coming for some time thus why our need to relocate. I was curious on what everyone here thought about, 1. The housing market and who do you think is to blame brokers or banks? Keep in mind Banks were the ones who provided all the optional loans, such as interest only, negative arms, on top of 100% or 80/20 with no MI...
2. I am sure most weren't aware that the Fed Res lowered rates for lenders yet the rates maintained the same for consumers, yet the Fed doesn't want to interfere and they stated the situation will rectify itself.
3. Unemployment is at all time highs nationwide. More people competing for the same jobs, the lowest bidder will win, leaving us in a deeper hole.
4. More and more jobs are sent over seas (as we already new) and now Disney is trying to kill our children with lead poisoning... Just Google Disney and Lead Poison and you will come accross a story.
5. I just learned this ~~> Milk prices are higher because dairy farms are closing down I think because profit margins are narrowing or something else.
6. Just notified yesterday that Holsum closed, not sure if its everywhere but the Florida plant closed down...
I know these aren't hings we think affect us in our day to day but it does and the more we save the less $$ is dished into our economy. I know I can say I am feeling the economy crumble under my feet and it ain't a pretty feeling.
I disagree with the responses which indicate that the economy is doing well, that things are hunky dory. If the economy and employment and income numbers really were "ok" then wouldn't you observe at least some of the following:
1) median income growth compared to inflation
2) house prices continuing to rise
3) local & regional & national governments running debt free with budget surpluses
4) factories and white collar jobs coming to the US and growing in number
5) fewer people foreclosing on mortgages
6) the US dollar remaining strong against foreign currencies
7) average or median debt per houshold would be trending downward
8) healthcare costs as a percentage of household income would be trending downward or at least remaining flat
9) corporate pensions would not be systematically removed company to company
I know a lot of what was mentioned above can be perceived as being "unrelated" to the economy, at least directly so to the metrics everyone is debating. But seriously folks, these things combined with all the economic metrics typically tracked make up today's economic crisis. You cannot just sit back while all these things are happening and state... well the BLS has indicated that unemployment is X... so we are ok. You're missing the forrest from the trees if you do that.
I disagree with the responses which indicate that the economy is doing well, that things are hunky dory. If the economy and employment and income numbers really were "ok" then wouldn't you observe at least some of the following:
1) median income growth compared to inflation
2) house prices continuing to rise
3) local & regional & national governments running debt free with budget surpluses
4) factories and white collar jobs coming to the US and growing in number
5) fewer people foreclosing on mortgages
6) the US dollar remaining strong against foreign currencies
7) average or median debt per houshold would be trending downward
8) healthcare costs as a percentage of household income would be trending downward or at least remaining flat
9) corporate pensions would not be systematically removed company to company
I know a lot of what was mentioned above can be perceived as being "unrelated" to the economy, at least directly so to the metrics everyone is debating. But seriously folks, these things combined with all the economic metrics typically tracked make up today's economic crisis. You cannot just sit back while all these things are happening and state... well the BLS has indicated that unemployment is X... so we are ok. You're missing the forrest from the trees if you do that.
Folks are focusing on the unemployment numbers and how that is calculated, assuming large numbers of unemployed folks are being deliberately uncounted. The assumption is that this is deliberately underreported.
However, looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment information, I don't see a downward employment trend that would support this assumption:
Folks are focusing on the unemployment numbers and how that is calculated, assuming large numbers of unemployed folks are being deliberately uncounted. The assumption is that this is deliberately underreported.
However, looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment information, I don't see a downward employment trend that would support this assumption:
what about population growth. Just cause the month increase in jobs does not mean that it offsets migration.So the percentage of people having jobs could in theory drop even thought there is an increase in employment.
The us census just updated 2006 unemployment was 6.4
Example
2006 had 234m people that were above the age of 16 or older and of which 141m were employed. That would be 60% of the population of 16 years and older. Now you look at 2005 it was 223m and 136million people employed. That would be 61% of the people working. So even thought there was an increase of people employed in 2006 compared to 2005 it was less of the total population by a percentage.
what about population growth. Just cause the month increase in jobs does not mean that it offsets migration.So the percentage of people having jobs could in theory drop even thought there is an increase in employment.
The us census just updated 2006 unemployment was 6.4
What is your 2006 revised unemployment source? Mine shows 2006 unemployment rate at 4.6%:
Regarding population growth, that is somewhat irrelevant. You include kids born in that number, plus folks who retire and no longer are part of the workforce.
I don't have much sympathy for the people that made crazy housing loans or the people that took them (and way over extended themselves, knowing they can't really afford it).
Maybe some people didn't know what they were doing. And salespeople now days tend to be overly aggressive in general, trying to sell you anything under the sun to make a short term profit.
-Everyone trying to "upsell you"...at the supermarket, telemarketers, anywhere.
-Finance companies in general are very, very aggressive (look at credit card late fees, universal default, etc).
But you've got to be insane to loan people $300,000 or $400,000 with no down payment, no income verification, offering little teaser rates that are bound to adjust upward...and then come crying when it falls apart.
Most people are cautious just loaning $20 or $50 to someone. The old rules about, 20% down payment, good credit...they were there for a reason.
I would also be very, very skeptical of any "offical" government figures, whether its GDP, "economic growth", "inflation", "unemployment".
Anyone making less than $10-20-25 an hour, with no piggy bank or safety net to fall back on (home equity, high savings, rental income or something) has been in a recession for at least the last 5-10 years.
The talk about unemployment, "growth", it doesn't mesh with peoples reality anymore.
I think we're one hiccup away (one crisis away) from a real deep recession that's going to throw alot of people over the edge. Like a boat with a huge number of people all sitting on the edge, and the next wave is going to topple it over.
I don't like being so pessimistic, but I wonder...how much longer can this keep up?
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