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Old 12-21-2013, 10:27 PM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
5,800 posts, read 6,575,753 times
Reputation: 3151

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The replacement rate has been plunging on every continent except for Africa, and is dangerously lower in places such as California.

This state certainly won't have nearly enough working taxpayers to pay the legacy costs of its seniors within the next 20/30 years according to an extensive study on a forthcoming shortage of children done by the Lucile Packard Foundation For Children's Health at USC; her late husband was the co-founder of Hewlett-Packard.

The fact that over 3,500,000 Californians have left the state over the past 20 years for other states where the middle class actually has a shot according to Joel Kotkin certainly isn't good either.
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Old 12-22-2013, 02:48 AM
 
Location: A blue island in the Piedmont
34,120 posts, read 83,106,864 times
Reputation: 43712
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marv101 View Post
This state certainly won't have nearly enough working taxpayers (earning enough) to pay the legacy costs...
This is a diferent matter than the population level.

Quote:
The fact that over 3,500,000 Californians have left the state over the past 20 years for other states where the middle class actually has a shot according to Joel Kotkin certainly isn't good either.
Because the middle ends up paying the largest portion of the low end burden.

Fewer people earning more and absent the burden of those who can't (won't) support themselves...
and all manner of good things become manageable and on a lower tax rate to boot.
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Old 12-22-2013, 11:03 AM
 
8,579 posts, read 12,443,174 times
Reputation: 16533
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marv101 View Post
The replacement rate has been plunging on every continent except for Africa, and is dangerously lower in places such as California.

This state certainly won't have nearly enough working taxpayers to pay the legacy costs of its seniors within the next 20/30 years according to an extensive study on a forthcoming shortage of children done by the Lucile Packard Foundation For Children's Health at USC; her late husband was the co-founder of Hewlett-Packard.

The fact that over 3,500,000 Californians have left the state over the past 20 years for other states where the middle class actually has a shot according to Joel Kotkin certainly isn't good either.
Nonsense.
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Old 12-25-2013, 09:42 PM
 
2,401 posts, read 3,260,869 times
Reputation: 1837
Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
No but money directs the care and research .
And again, the money doesn't perform the care and research. Now the care and research that would have been devoted to advancing society is instead spent on maintaining the elderly.
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Old 12-27-2013, 11:40 AM
 
48,502 posts, read 96,952,864 times
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No ;that is what a program such as ACA means ;no one paying for the research that advances society in medical care. Managed system are like any socialized system in that it produced less because risk does not pay more. There was a program on just the effects of medical device tax and what it means to research for new devices the other night.It the reason that US became the provider of 70% of medical and drug research I the past while other socialized western countries haven't invest much in it. Advanced anything is seldom sold to those who can't afford it as always.Which is why countries actually set price they can pay as even Canada does but its dependent on high paying US to balance. The balance is gone.
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Old 12-27-2013, 06:09 PM
 
9,639 posts, read 6,031,150 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
No ;that is what a program such as ACA means ;no one paying for the research that advances society in medical care. Managed system are like any socialized system in that it produced less because risk does not pay more. There was a program on just the effects of medical device tax and what it means to research for new devices the other night.It the reason that US became the provider of 70% of medical and drug research I the past while other socialized western countries haven't invest much in it. Advanced anything is seldom sold to those who can't afford it as always.Which is why countries actually set price they can pay as even Canada does but its dependent on high paying US to balance. The balance is gone.
They don't set the price. They sit down and negotiate with medical device makers to keep the costs in line. Medical device makers in the US have profit margins other industries can only dream of.
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Old 01-02-2014, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Sector 001
15,948 posts, read 12,315,035 times
Reputation: 16113
No it's not... it's the government's fault and the federal reserve that we have a banking system that requires 'perpetually accelerating growth' to prevent collapse. What we need is a monetary system capable of zero growth without collapsing.

December 23, 2013 was the 100 year anniversary of the Federal Reserve.
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Old 01-03-2014, 05:24 PM
 
1,922 posts, read 3,990,956 times
Reputation: 1342
I'd think so...as the population decreases, so does the market value per capita.
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Old 01-04-2014, 06:40 PM
 
651 posts, read 864,597 times
Reputation: 320
Ponzi schemes don't work well with declining participants.

SS/Medicare/Medicaid aren't going to work well.
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Old 01-09-2014, 02:13 PM
 
Location: DC
2,044 posts, read 2,964,399 times
Reputation: 1824
There is this assumption that a declining population is a bad thing.
It's not, as long as it is gradual. In the US we actually have a problem right now that the population did not decline when it should have, and we are facing an oversupply of labor as a result.

However, now our birth rate is below the replacement rate, and our immigration rate has fallen as well.

Here is the truth, there is something called the demographic-economic paradox. Basically the lower the birth rate the generally more developed a country would be. There is often better investments into education, better resources to reproductive healthcare (contraception specifically), and a better social structure in general. They tend to invest more in their people and have higher productivity as a result. The one thing to note about this though is once it has sufficiently declined, it will also rise back up to just replacement rate levels, as sufficient social policies are put in place to encourage this.

High birthrate countries...are generally poor, and a rapidly increasing population is a BAD thing. The fallacy is that if the human capital is higher, that economic productivity is higher. But we now know that is not really true, an educated workforce can invent things like robots and make thousands of human workers obsolete. One has to measure technological progress against demographics. Human productivity in developed nations rises, where the need for lots of human workers declines, often in line with the birthrate. If it doesn't we have a situation the US has now...labor oversupply and structural unemployment.

It is all a bit counter intuitive, but the paradox is known to be true, the more educated the workforce, the lower the population growth, the better things get, as resources are not as stretched. There is a paradox between high birthrates, and high economic development. You want lower birthrates in order to become a developed nation, and not run into a labor oversupply dilemma.
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