Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
And the news this morning says that the CPI made the biggest jump in 2 years.
May 22 -- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 pecent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
That's the biggest jump since --- last month, when it was up by 0.2 percent.
I don't like to bet on bad things happening, but what the fed has been doing has been freaking a lot of people out. I have a generally bad feeling about what the end result will be. There is a great deal of mistrust that did not exist 10 years ago. Yes, there have always been people saying America will collapse. I don't see that happening. I could see a long term decline that possibly serves as a drag on the world.
We are in unfamiliar territory. The fed has no more ammunition. What you see is about all you're going to get going forward. Corporate profits have been wonderful since they laid waste to their workforce, slashed wages and bennies, done everything they could to unload expenses while engaging in profitable stock buy backs. How much more value can they squeeze out when they've tossed everything out but the kitchen sink in an effort to compete?
We may be seeing the the new economic 'normal'. Now if we could get all those profits back into circulation, that would be very beneficial to the rest of the economy. Flush corps and people need to unload a good bit of their 'winnings' and consume more vs save more.
We don't know. Historically, recessions occur every 7 years, so one is supposed to be due this year. We're just now in the second quarter. Revisions show that there was negative growth in the first quarter. If we don't see positive growth in this second quarter, then we will be in a recession according to the standard definition of a recession.
The bigger problem is that we don't know if we have any effective safeguards in place to avert a market calamity we witnessed in 2007-08'. Some say Dodd-Frank comes short. Has the financial industry learned from its mistakes? Who knows? Right now, there's a housing bubble, but it's not boosted by predatory lending like the last one did. It's an investor/renter boom now. Bartenders aren't getting mortgages to live in new McMansions anymore.
I still worry about over leveraged oil patch and related business, debt/investments crashing. A very big deal, but IMO not the potential of scale like 2008.
In 2008 nearly every neighborhood and town in the country along with huge numbers abroad very negatively affected.
Oil in the USA is concentrated more regionally. For instance I can hardly think of a reason why an oil crash would seriously affect my neighborhood, city and state (AZ). Of course SHT can always happen!
No one can predict the future. And using the past history of the index as an indicator only works so well since the world's economy is constantly changing.
General volatility, war, oil prices, housing - take your pick at what to look at to give yourself an idea. I believe in overall cycles (not necessarily the 7-year cycle theory), but that being said I feel in the big picture the market is ready for an adjustment. IMO, anywhere from now to 2017.
the past has never presented itself as we have it today. low interest rates and high stock valuations never appeared before together at any point in history. that indicates below average performance on all fronts going forward.
A standard definition of a recession is two or more quarters of negative GDP growth. What do you disagree with?
It was so bad, that the Fed just re-adjusted Q1 GDP with a double seasonal adjustment.
You can't make this stuff up, it's so Orwellian in nature it's not even funny, anymore. Yellen said today that the weather was partly to "blame". How much longer are they going to use that lame excuse?
It was so bad, that the Fed just re-adjusted Q1 GDP with a double seasonal adjustment.
You can't make this stuff up, it's so Orwellian in nature it's not even funny, anymore. Yellen said today that the weather was partly to "blame". How much longer are they going to use that lame excuse?
For the longest, price hikes in fuel were blamed for contractions. With gas prices this low, you would think that our economy would see all economic indicators at unusual highs, but that's not what's happening. It's telling of how bad the recovery is where cheap energy can't help much.
I think in the next couple years if given the rate of the economy and the alarming number of house foreclosures at certain states.
Do you think we will get hit again? If so, when? If not, why?
I think this year. Consider the successive economic crises we have had:
2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers precipitates the financial crisis 2001 terror attacks coupled with Fed interest rate hikes trigger recession in 2001-2002 1994 the bond markets were absolutely crushed as the Fed raised rates 1987 the Black Monday Wall Street crash 1980 recession/stagflation caused by the 1979 energy crisis (oil spiked to a then-record $38 per barrel) 1973 failure of the Bretton Woods trade system and oil crisis
Every one of them has been on a seven year cycle, give or take a few months.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
