Economy is better than ever (percentage, millionaire, companies, taxes)

[Johnhw2]

With the federal reserve keeping interests so low and the shovel ready job creation that were not shovel ready the economy better be decent. But the cost of employing people has soared to Europe levels as we adopt policies similar to theirs where unemployment is sky high for young people. Real estate prices have recovered as few new starts have been built so prices are up due to better demand and not much new supply. The cbo says our debt levels are unsustainable yet DC keeps on spending at higher levels despite military cut backs.

Texas where I live is doing ok as Toyota and liberty mutual and State Farm move jobs here from higher cost areas rather than true economic growth.

The economy is fragile as the fed is going to raise rates but despite the weak economic structure people keep on spending. Slowdowns never slow the consumer spending only a crash does, as long as people have jobs they will spend. The safety net allows those without jobs to manage better than in the past so things look rosie even if a crash is around the corner.

We are better off than Europe and Asia economically but are still,weak as spend on things that don't propell the economy. Stem jobs are strong and pay well but we don't produce enough qualified grads so we bring in immigrants who aren't afraid of studying had or making things for a good pay.

[Malloric]

Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close

U6 has never been double the U3 rate. It was traditionally about 80% higher than U3. The U6 rate peaked during the early 2000s recession at 10.4% when U3 exceeded 6%. You can't tell me that now, with u3 near 5% and U6 at 10.4% that something isn't wrong.

U6 was 8% and u3 was 5% during the good bush years. U6 was 7% and U3 was 4% during the good Clinton years. U6 wasn't calculated back then but retrospective models show U6 at 9% during the last years of the 80s, when U3 was in the low 5s like today.

Insufficient data source. The 2000 recession was incredibly minor, -.3%. Using that as your normal.. well, that was probably the most minor recession in the country's history, certainly since we've been collecting GDP data. The past estimates of U6 are pretty simplistic. It's just taking the U3 and multiplying it based on regression analysis with a coefficient of best fit. The problem is we haven't had a major recession before to compare this one with to tell you if there's something wrong or not. The closest thing is '94, which was almost three years after the recession and the early '90s recession itself was pretty minor.

The data source is simply too limited to draw any conclusion as the only two recessions present during the data source are the worst recession we've had since the '45 recession, which was weird because it was the post-war transition and didn't act much like a normal recession, and the most minor recession we've had in likely ever. It may very well be completely normal to have people leave unemployment to go to under-employment coming out of a severe recession. The only basis we have is the 2007-2009 recession where that happened.

[tijlover]

Originally Posted by k374

My cousin is only 25 years old and is a realtor in westside Southern California, she is selling homes in the $1.5 million range with ease and raking in the dough! People are just flush with cash, that is the observation regardless of what the indices say.

It's no secret that 20-25% of the buyers in California are wealthy Chinese, and so what's this got to do with the economy? And the Chinese know that the U.S. will always be the last bastion of capitalistic corruption and greed to go under!

[Du Pont]

With all the bears in this thread I'm all the more Bullish.

[eok]

Originally Posted by rruff

Can you provide evidence for it? After all, it's your thread.

There's a boom in threads.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by rruff

This is the opposite of reality for most in the US.

We make money from salaries. The strong US$ causes trade deficits, depressed wages, depressed production, and debt escalation. The US$ has been too strong to close the trade gap for 35 years, and is the foundation for why the middle class has been going downhill.

The huge income disparity that existed around the world between US and advanced economies versus Asian economies was not sustainable, countries such as China and S. Korea have become more competitive with their labor and capital production which has taken market from US produced goods which has impacted the average wage of a middle class American. So to me, this is an equalization of the world economy because the system in the world in decades past was not something that could be sustained long term. Also, the huge illegal immigration of millions of Mexicans, Central Americans has impacted especially lower middle class wages as part of the supply/demand curve of labor.

Most of the rest of your post I agree except that there are also benefits to a strong dollar such as buying high value machinery and tools at reduced cost for industry and the cost to travel or buy such things as real estate in foreign locales or retire in foreign locales is an advantage for many Americans

[Northern Maine Land Man]

Hemlock140 notices;
"In our 20 years here, we have not seen it as prosperous since the dot com boom in the mid 90s. Back then homes were selling quickly in the $150-200k range, we had trouble finding one for $190k. Now those same homes go for $600-800k with multiple offers over asking price withing 3 days, and over 90% of residents own their home. Despite the median family income of $144k, it's considered solidly middle class, just making the top 25%."

In Lincoln, Maine an ordinary 3 bedroom ranch with a garage built in the 1960s will sell for $85,000.

In Lincoln, NH, the same house will sell for $190,000. Same climate, similar populations, similar education and ethnic backgrounds so what are the differences in these two economies? About 20 years ago I named the border between Maine and New Hampshire "The Maple Curtain". It is like the old Iron Curtain in Europe. East of the Iron Curtain was a society where there was very high taxes and very little economic opportunity.

West of the Iron Curtain was economic opportunity and freedom. New Hampshire's homes cost double what Maine homes cost because New Hampshire is 49th in the nation in tax burden per capita income. They would be #50, but Alaska pays people to live there. New Hampshire has no income tax and no sales tax. They have better roads, schools, prisons, parks and university.

Maine Has a high and growing sales tax, an income tax that taxes retirement incomes and a ridiculously high excise tax on motor vehicles. People have noticed my term. 'Maple Curtain' and it is being mentioned in various publications. I have recommended that Maine legislators charter some busses and go across the Maple Curtain to see how New Hampshire manages to operate with economic freedom. They even have "Live Free or Die" on their license plates. So far, no such tour of Maine legislators has taken place, but they do go across the Maple Curtain to buy cigarettes, booze, home appliances and gasoline. The fact that you can hunt on Sunday also makes New Hampshire a more desirable place to live.

Maine is as big as the other five New England states combined. Yet, half of Maine's population lives within 50 miles of Congress Street in Portland, sometimes referred to as Provincetown North. They are all bunched up down there because progressives need to reassure each other that they are OK, doing what is correct and controlling their neighbors.

Maine is addressing this overall situation. We elected Paul LePage as governor which is causing progressive heads to explode. We have made the first small gestures toward smaller government and lower taxes and have moved from #49 in tax burden back to around #45. For the Portland progressives it is like the apocalypse. They are just going to need to cope. In three more years we could be near the middle in tax burden.

[Hemlock140]

Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close

Sounds like the 1% is buying up Seattle! With middle class incomes barely budging in decades how can housing prices increase like that?

No, there are not many 1%ers, it's the "solid middle class" tech jobs at the big employers like Microsoft, Amazon, Costco, Boeing, Tableau, Facebook and Zillow.

[Serious Conversation]

You live in California. Those of us in flyover country are struggling.

[Happiness-is-close]

Flyover states have some of the lowest unemployment rates today actually. California is not doing good.