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I certainly don't expect a sustainable trend when white collar wages disappear on the heels of an expansion of retail/food/hospitality crapola wage jobs, while the politicians call it a net gain on the U3 front (as if that matters more than U6 to the rank and file prole).
We can't all be IT/nurses/surgeon/"flavor of the decade". Ergo, that's a lot of folks miffed at crushed expectations with too much of the wrong education and no resources/access to the right re-tooling. Also, employment has non-economic value as a function of basic governance. Make-work is unfortunately necessary so the idle don't torch the streets. That's the opportunity cost of living "in-society". If I truly believed that for every "elevator operator" job there would be an "above median wage IT job" waiting and training-accessible to that elevator operator, I would be the first to curse make-work. Alas, the last 20 years of NAFTA/CAFTA/et al have made me realize there is no such equity, and we're all getting "idled" while the "aggressives" within society who are able to rise above the waterline of that Hunger Game, sit on here and argue it's all blown out of proportion and there's no problem at all, just lazy people whining. History continues to elude us. The angry and hungry NEVER die quietly and obediently. Rather, they make it very hard for the winners of the game to enjoy their surroundings. I'd rather live in a copacetic society rather than a polarized one, regardless of what socioeconomic class I was a part of.
This is all a big pipedream anyways. All that is gonna happen to the US post 2050 is we'll become a Western European post-colonial decaying empire, as the large roles of "idles" demand a lifestyle resembling that of their parents, where the economic opportunities have been off-shored for the majority under the religion of unfettered globalism and crony capitalism. So the masses will vote in an expansion of the social net. As they should. I rather see a protectionist return to an export economy and a private industry backed re-tooling of the workforce under a pledge for Corporate Nationalism, but in its absence I don't blame this Country for going "European". It was a good run while it lasted.
On a side note, it's also gonna get real brown up in here come 2050, that'll also be a hoot, to witness as COEDs flip out at their social downstep from the racial supremacy throne in the US.
Sure there will be new types of jobs created, but they certainly will not employ a bulk of people like previous industries like manufacturing did. These jobs will be for the top few percentage of intelligence and creativity. Those who went to the top colleges, have a good network, etc.
Manufacturing hasn't employed the bulk of people for a long time. These new types of jobs that certainly will not employ a bulk of people like previous industries like manufacturing have in reality been providing the bulk of jobs for a long time. 75% of the population works in the tertiary economy. Nothing new.
The premise of this thread is a world without jobs for humans. Robots will repair robots that specialize in repairing robots that repair robots. Some robots will clean toilets and some will manage banks. Some will trim trees and some will spray for mosquitoes. Some will patch pot holes in roads and some will repair stranded vehicles. There won't be any work at all for humans. That's the basic premise of this thread. All the arguments that include work for humans are not relevant to this thread.
But there is a huge flaw in the assumption that the main problem will be how to distribute money/welfare/resources to everyone when nobody works. That won't be the main problem at all. The main problem will be that too many of the robots will be used for crime and war. Compared with that problem, money/welfare/resources distribution problems will hardly be an issue. Crime and war are going to be much bigger problems in the future than they are now. The more they get automated, the harder they will be to defend against.
There is a very high probability that the whole human race will be wiped out. Then there won't be any need to distribute anything to them. The only real question is what happens after the humans are all gone. Will the robots be advanced enough to continue to evolve on their own? Will their wars and crimes keep escalating, till they have to go to other planets to survive? Will all of our first world problems be forgotten? What will they mean by first world problems? Earth problems?
Once the debt escalation gravy train finally derailed in 2008, we've been left with the steaming pile of crap we've spent the last 40 years building. I can't believe it's risen at all.
Trust me, if we manage to get our economy on a functional track again, we will exceed 3% growth easily. We need to close the trade deficit, distribute the wealth, and support high productivity investment.
But note that the $28k/yr you were complaining about was based on zero growth. Now you are complaining that 3% is too high. You are starting to sound like an automatic arguing machine.
That's a mighty big IF. It hasn't happened despite how many recent quarters of QE? And the whole premise of this thread is a severely declining job participation rate and yet growth in GDP and job creation go hand in hand. I also haven't seen any willingness on the part of Washington to do any of the things you suggest will help GDP growth.
You are starting to sound like someone who suffers from MTS (Magical Thinking Syndrome).
Basic income. It's the only realistic solution to automation. I don't see us reaching that point anytime soon though, so for now I advocate a job guarantee.
Shush. We're supposed to ignore that for the purposes of this thread.
At least we haven't sunk as low as some countries. They started counting illegal drug purchases and prostitution in their GDP calculations.
Counting illegal activities boosted Italy's GDP by a full percent.
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