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You can grow by providing heretofore-undersupplied health care, by converting the energy grid to cleaner power sources to reduce pollution, or by hiring more regulators to oversee banks and prevent another recession, to name a few. There are all kinds of growth that would be positive, even if none of them are related to the current proposed tax plan.
Since a vast part of our debt and deficit are health care, it doesn't matter what miracle they come up with - the price per person per year will continue to rise (especially with the GOP lack of plans)......
I agree that some items can be positive growth - alt energy, for example.
But when we keep our cars for 10 years we are working against growth (a good thing) and other energy efficiency is the same thing. Remember when a phone bill for home was $175? Higher GDP, right?
The bottom like is "growth" can be a dirty word. In fact, it is more than it isn't IMHO.
It's amazing how people can convince themselves the economy is struggling when practically every metric says otherwise.
Number of delinquent car loans has risen and is very high
That isn't a sign of strong economy
Maybe some of those are people who had their cars destroyed during the hurricanes in FL and TX and are refusing to pay monthly payments while waiting for insurance claims to settle but can't think all of them are taking that long...
You are confusing statutory corporate tax rates and effective corporate tax rates....
While it is true that U.S. statutory rates are higher than those of other countries, the effective rates faced by U.S. corporations (i.e., the taxes they actually pay) are roughly equivalent to the effective tax rates of our large industrial peers: the difference between U.S. average effective corporate tax rate and the weighted average of rates in other advanced economies is less than a single percentage point.
U.S. corporate profits are at all time highs....you are living in a fantasyland.
While I think the effective tax rate for most corporations--certainly large, multi-national ones--is certainly lower than the GOP mantra says
I don't know that corporate profits are really at all time highs---
Black Rock says there is still lot of slack in the economy from the 08 recession--
How can there be slack if companies are at all time highs?
While I think the effective tax rate for most corporations--certainly large, multi-national ones--is certainly lower than the GOP mantra says
I don't know that corporate profits are really at all time highs---
Black Rock says there is still lot of slack in the economy from the 08 recession--
How can there be slack if companies are at all time highs?
Corporate "profits" are worldwide and hundreds of millions of new consumers have come online elsewhere. Americans are in debt.
The real story can really be told in two words "Real Estate". As they have done so many many times in the past, the criminal syndicate comprised of the tens of millions who make money from 'turning over" where people live and developing virgin lands and giving them the money....and pumping up the values....
This is a 20 year recession - and we will be lucky if it ends up being only that. Most of the actions of the current admin are reversing the slow mitigation of the Great Recession - for example, the complete refusal to consider balancing a budget or lowering the debt. Also, they are pushing Wall Street and Hedge Funds over "real" economic activity.
We won't be saved by Russians buying condos in Sunnyside Florida.
Basically our problem is we have no plans. We think "oh, 10 years went by so things should be OK".
Corporate profits are out of that 20 Trillion debt and also out of credit (a new high) that the American people are under. Also, again, lots of other countries are buying stuff. Germany is booming. China and a lot of Asia also. They buy a lot of American goods.
Most companies are international now.
So we could all starve here and corporations could still be doing well.
Number of delinquent car loans has risen and is very high
That isn't a sign of strong economy
Maybe some of those are people who had their cars destroyed during the hurricanes in FL and TX and are refusing to pay monthly payments while waiting for insurance claims to settle but can't think all of them are taking that long...
Car loans? That is your biggest gauge on the health of the economy is?
Number of delinquent car loans has risen and is very high
That isn't a sign of strong economy
This might be related to relaxed subprime lending standards along with a surge of buyers because of strong employment and consumer outlook. If you look at the bigger picture default rates for consumer loans and revolving debt are both still quite low compared to historical data. DQ rates are here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...f/delallsa.htm as of Q3 2017 consumer DQ rates are very healthy, less than any year in the previous two decades going back to when their data set starts in 1991.
I'm not saying the default rate of auto loans is good/bad, but looking at just that one measure and declaring it an indicator of an economy that isn't strong, without any sort of context or comparison with other measures or debt or historical norms seems a bit silly.
i have my doubts the tax changes would do anything but make company officer's offshore bank accounts larger.
-companies already use creative tax saving strategies
-smaller companies either under report or run all cash businesses
-extra money is used to repurchase stock, pay higher bonuses and almost never increase minimum wages
-with manufacturing offshore, any stimulus to inventory creation only helps other countries
I am a demand side economist. Supply side economics (trickle down) has been proven many times over to have no effect on the economy.
This might be related to relaxed subprime lending standards along with a surge of buyers because of strong employment and consumer outlook. If you look at the bigger picture default rates for consumer loans and revolving debt are both still quite low compared to historical data. DQ rates are here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...f/delallsa.htm as of Q3 2017 consumer DQ rates are very healthy, less than any year in the previous two decades going back to when their data set starts in 1991.
I'm not saying the default rate of auto loans is good/bad, but looking at just that one measure and declaring it an indicator of an economy that isn't strong, without any sort of context or comparison with other measures or debt or historical norms seems a bit silly.
Yes I saw comparison between consumer debt in various past business cycles with this one and consumer debt was much lower in current one -- mainly because people really cut back on spending and started saving more after 08---of course corporate debt is higher than in any other cycle because of the cheap money for a decade...
But auto loan delinquencies were only at this level recently in like 08 I believe--
So while people with more income can often afford to buy cars outright or maybe prefer to lease car it just seems a little bit of a red flag...
Just like flattening yield curve
CALpers has also moved lot of money from equities (taking profit I am sure) into securities which with low rates and climbing market seems hedging against downturn in near future...or maybe just strategic rebalancing...just more than normal % from the article analysis
11-23-2017, 10:21 AM
i7pXFLbhE3gq
n/a posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks
Passing a large unpaid for tax cut 7 or 8 years into a recovery is just plain reckless. Real tax reform that is basically revenue neutral would be another story.
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth comes from two main sources: 1) growth in the labor force and 2) growth in productivity.
LABOR FORCE GROWTH
The economy is already running at or near full employment. It’s true that the labor participation rate is at a relatively low at 63%, down from 66.4% in January 2007. However, the aging of the U.S. population leaves little hope of reversing the trend line.
The most recent increases in the workforce occurred in the 1970s through the 1990s, with the entry of baby boomers and women. But the baby boomers of both sexes are retiring now. Unless immigration is drastically INCREASED the U.S. workforce will continue to shrink at least for the next 15 to 20 years.
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
That places the onus on productivity growth. The biggest driver of productivity growth is technological change. However, as an advanced economy all the "low hanging fruit" of technological innovation for the U.S. is BEHIND us. Read Robert Gordon (Northwestern Univ.) who has written extensively on this matter.
The last time we grew above 4% was during the 90's when the gains from Info. Technology were being felt. Smart phones, Uber and Driverless cars are simply not as impactful innovations as say running water, the internal combustion engine or the initial wave of computer technology were during earlier decades in our history.
The U.S. is a really large and complex economy, and taxes are a relatively small part of the picture. They are certainly not unimportant. But even an absolutely perfectly crafted tax reform package would only add a miniscule amount to GDP growth.
Pretty much exactly this.
Productivity growth is not happening at anything approaching what it was in the past.
We have a rapidly aging population and are having fewer kids, which means the labor force will not grow sufficiently to drive that sort of GDP growth. We can tackle that with more immigration, but the same people supporting this tax plan also want to clamp down on immigration and are already making it more expensive and time consuming for companies to hire foreign labor.
You don't get that sort of growth in GDP without growth in productivity *and* growth in the working population.
The Black Rock comparison data showed definite decrease in productivity in this business cycle and others since the 60s
But the situatuion has also changed---Republicans have killed unions and companies have shipped decent paying jobs to cheaper countries to improve the bottom line w/o regard for what that does to the domestic buying power...
It's OK for Trump to increase the number of H2b visa workers for Mar a Lago--but heaven forbid the US welcomes more immigrants from countries he doesn't like...
These guys are just looking for growth of their fortunes---they don't care in the least about making a change in America's destiny---and people on social programs like Medicare and Medicaid and SS are going to be shafted--if not in the near term then not that far out either...
The motto should be "As long as I get mine"...
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