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Old 04-26-2019, 03:34 PM
 
1,333 posts, read 292,655 times
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GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year. That is faster than most economists expected, and far better than the dour forecasts of early this year, when many forecast growth could fall below 1 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/26/b...p-economy.html

Quote:
I just canít point to anything now thatís going to push us into recessionĒ said Ben Herzon, an economist with Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm. ďI just canít point to anything now thatís going to push us into recession.Ē
and

https://www.wsj.com/articles/has-the...ed-11556311511
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Old 04-26-2019, 03:53 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
6,473 posts, read 2,269,487 times
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It's one quarter, and we'll see if it produces any real change in all the shadow/ignored indicators we've been discussing as running contrary to 'fficial gummint numbers.
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Old 04-26-2019, 04:23 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,323 posts, read 3,647,093 times
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I question what the economic forecasters "know." When are the consensus predictions ever right? As I recall, the mainstream economists completely missed how severe the 2008 financial crisis would be, with a few exceptions like Roubini, and even he was more lucky than right.
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Old 04-26-2019, 04:59 PM
 
7,970 posts, read 8,804,514 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
It's one quarter, and we'll see if it produces any real change in all the shadow/ignored indicators we've been discussing as running contrary to 'fficial gummint numbers.
Dude no-one with any sense about these matters buys what you are selling. 3.2% GDP growth nearly 10 years into an expansion is fantastic - possibly unprecedented - no matter how much you hate it.
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Old 04-26-2019, 05:03 PM
 
7,970 posts, read 8,804,514 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
I question what the economic forecasters "know." When are the consensus predictions ever right? As I recall, the mainstream economists completely missed how severe the 2008 financial crisis would be, with a few exceptions like Roubini, and even he was more lucky than right.
1). Forecasting GDP numbers without ongoing Federal Reserve Bank & academic quality tools/resources is more or less guesswork and especially tough coming out of winter.

2). A good number of mainstream macroeconomists pegged the '08 bust well in advance and knew it would be terrible. And Roubini has about the worst track record of anyone in the business.
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Old 04-26-2019, 05:09 PM
 
2,537 posts, read 954,211 times
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we have taken profits 3 times in 21 years.

1998, 2006, and last year. we have not
found a way to "time" the market.
what we have found is our upper
"trigger figure" to take some
off the table.

bottom line: we are still invested.
and, tax season really hurt this year.
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Old 04-26-2019, 05:31 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
6,473 posts, read 2,269,487 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
Dude no-one with any sense about these matters buys what you are selling. 3.2% GDP growth nearly 10 years into an expansion is fantastic - possibly unprecedented - no matter how much you hate it.
Never said I hate it - I said I (and quite a few other sharp folks here) don't trust that the standard indicators are painting a complete or correct picture. We're all seeing way too much contrary data - ground truth data - that's sharply at odds with all the pretty, pretty numbers.

And while I don't think it's a significant factor, if there's ever been an administration whose numbers were worth distrusting, this is it. Shut down half the agencies and put brown-nosing ideologues in charge of the rest... and surprise, surprise, its a veritable rose garden around here.

As for "what I'm selling," I haven't seen one clue that you even know what that is. You're running a long string of vague accusations here. Haul out that dusty PhD and put some specs in your bite, when and if you can.
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Old 04-26-2019, 06:43 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,323 posts, read 3,647,093 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
1). Forecasting GDP numbers without ongoing Federal Reserve Bank & academic quality tools/resources is more or less guesswork and especially tough coming out of winter.

2). A good number of mainstream macroeconomists pegged the '08 bust well in advance and knew it would be terrible. And Roubini has about the worst track record of anyone in the business.
#2 - can you name any?

From what I recall, a number of them did recognize the problem with sub-prime mortgages, but few had a sense of how deep the rabbit hole went with the banks beyond just making those mortages, but selling and reselling them. Few thought the entire banking system was at risk, but did realize that 20-25% of the mortgage market was rotten.

That is, until it became clear the banking system was in serious jeopardy, which I recall being recognized by the financial media in late winter, early spring of 2008.

As for today.... I don't know, I'm in my 30s. I graduated into the recession and had a bad first 3-5 years if my working life. Things got better for me circa 2012-13. They have been in a steady upward trend since then.

Pre-recession I was in the army or in college and had mcjobs. I don't know what that economy was like writ-large, didn't pay attention back then.

As far as I can tell, we will either never have another recession again, another 2008 is around the corner or something in between.

What's interesting is that most Americans don't rate the economy as that great. They rate it mediocre. Even though from all appearances and indicators it is the best it has ever been.

Last edited by redguard57; 04-26-2019 at 07:00 PM..
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Old 04-26-2019, 07:10 PM
 
Location: SoCal
3,563 posts, read 2,413,931 times
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Perfect timing for minimum wage hikes!!
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Old 04-26-2019, 07:11 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
6,473 posts, read 2,269,487 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sean1the1 View Post
Perfect timing for minimum wage hikes!!
No, no. That would be unAmerican and unfair to businesses like Whirlpool.
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