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We all most remember that economic victims of the pandemic didn't do anything wrong, so there is no "moral hazard" against which we must be careful.
We need to ensure people who lost their jobs (no fault of their own) do not lose the roof over their head because they can't pay the rent or mortgage. (Notice I said "can't" rather than "won't.")
We need to ensure people can eat.
We need to ensure that otherwise healthy businesses will remain alive so that when we have the contagion under control, they can recall laid-off employees. This includes small, medium, large and multinational businesses.
If we can achieve the above, and if we can control the pandemic. then the value of everyone's IRAs and 401Ks and life savings will go up, recovering some of the loss.
I think, that what we need, is a giant 'PAUSE' button- no rents get paid, no mortgages get paid, no debt is serviced (personal or corporate), *everything* goes on 'HOLD' until this is under control and those who can be healed are well and the dead are buried.
Then, when it's over, we press 'PLAY' and everything resumes as close to where it was as possible- all debt structures are extended by however many months it takes, no evictions, no defaults, no repossessions/foreclosures, no mountains of additional debt, no 'back-payments' owed, we just re-start from where we were.
I'll put bets that This Time Is Differentâ„¢... because large changes were already in motion when this huge kick in the economic nuts happened.
Just as one example: Do you think McDonalds et al. are going to rehire full staffs... or by the time we "recover," will the move to an automated front end (kiosks, etc.) be in the latter stages of completion?
And another: do you think all rather frivolous areas of the service sector are going to completely rebound, or even survive? Just a random pick: do you think the fad for yoga will continue, or become another passed distraction for those who had the free income to indulge it? ("But that can't happen, teacher!" "Oh, yeah? You still have your Zumba and Jazzercise records?")
I do think businesses who have been forced to automate or go online 100% will be questioning why 5hey should rehire certain staff. Especially if they are hurting for profit from months of forced closures. There are so many unintended consequences of this very knee jerk shut down. I'm not saying I have the answers. I'm just saying we should all turn some laser focus on some of these questions like NOW. Enough with the ticker tape death count. We get it. Let's give a little attention to solving some of the problems that are created when people survive and don't have jobs.
Because most people are deluded into thinking that everything will go back to "normal" after this pandemic. They are not. We will never return to 2019 levels of activity and consumption. A lot of things are going away and never coming back.
Thats probably true for socialist rathole countries.
But this is America and its full of Americans who are resilient, they're made of tougher stuff.
Britain came out of WW2 a broken system and ran for the "safety" of socialism.
America became a country unleashed and became a world leader.
Its not going back to normal, its gonna come back stronger.
Just watch.
The government never looks ahead. The are reactionary and always a step or three, too slow.
It is so true. i worked for the government. They are not only reactionary but highly incompetent. The folks getting promoted are to fit the culture. I always said if they ever had to manufacture anything for profit they would be bankrupt.
Thats probably true for socialist rathole countries.
But this is America and its full of Americans who are resilient, they're made of tougher stuff.
Britain came out of WW2 a broken system and ran for the "safety" of socialism.
America became a country unleashed and became a world leader.
Its not going back to normal, its gonna come back stronger.
Just watch.
This collapse won't play out immediately, it will take some time. We will see in 6 months to a year which one of us is right.
The economic fallout of this situation is not being treated with the same gravity as the health issues? I see it as every bit as catastrophic if not more so and equally important.
Why are we not seeing expert economists doing PSAs on how to recover? What steps to take now?
Why are we not looking ahead? Making a plan?
Good question. Everyone seems to think Santa Claus will bail everyone out.
Good question. Everyone seems to think Santa Claus will bail everyone out.
And maybe there's not one person on earth who really knows what the next year looks like, in social, economic or political terms. Go ahead, lay us out your meticulous plans, and by all means set all forms of subsidy, stimulus and bailout aside.
All I can say is that if there's a "second wave" of this virus, the buck stops. We cannot send the country into a great depression and pile onto the national debt another few trillion without consequences. Yes, more people will die. But we didn't shut down the economy when 80,000 people died of the flu, or when 40,000 people died of the flu.
Only 14% would resume normal activity. 86% would not. That means deep recession.
Quote:
If being out in public were entirely up to them at this moment during the global pandemic, 14% of Americans say they would resume their normal day-to-day activities right now, but the rest would hold off:
42% would wait until the number of new cases of COVID-19 declines significantly
38% would wait until there are no new cases for some period of time
7% would wait until a vaccine is developed
These findings are from an online probability-based Gallup Panel survey conducted March 27-29.
Doing nothing would also risk flooding the health care system, which was NOT ready. The effects of the public seeing people hack their lungs out in overcrowded hospital parking lots would not exactly inspire confidence in the economy.
All I can say is that if there's a "second wave" of this virus, the buck stops. We cannot send the country into a great depression and pile onto the national debt another few trillion without consequences. Yes, more people will die. But we didn't shut down the economy when 80,000 people died of the flu, or when 40,000 people died of the flu.
This isn't a normal flu. It's going to kill ~200,000 in a good scenario with social distancing and lockdowns. If we did nothing it would kill millions.
The way to think about the economic impacts is more in terms of a natural disaster and less in terms of a normal economic downturn - those happen more gradually.
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