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The cost to get deeper is higher than the value extracted.
They keep saying there's not enough kids. Nope there's too many.
There's probably more fermented dinosaur bones and algae below but we don't have the tech to get to it. In 50 years we're in big trouble unless we rapidly innovate and increase consumption efficiency by 300%.
The cost to get deeper is higher than the value extracted.
They keep saying there's not enough kids. Nope there's too many.
There's probably more fermented dinosaur bones and algae below but we don't have the tech to get to it. In 50 years we're in big trouble unless we rapidly innovate and increase consumption efficiency by 300%.
That video is old and as utterly wrong now as it was when issued. I'll meet you and Taggerung out in The Midland Basin sometime for a little show and tell.
Peak oil might never be true because it's not just about supply of oil, but supply of economical energy. If other sources of energy compete with oil economically before peak oil hits, then it won't happen.
That said oil is a finite resource like everything else on this planet so there's some truth to the warnings especially re the use of petroleum in plastics and other products. In the future people might look back in wonder that we just straight up burned oil for energy, rather than process it into finished products. Similar to how most energy used to come from burning wood and now a 2x4 costs $8 or whatever ridiculous price it goes for now.
Let me guess . . . no one involved in this conservation has actually read or studied anything of Hubbert's resource extraction modeling? That is the entire basis of Peak Oil Production.
Hubbert observed that new Oil wells generally have a high output and that they taper down over time. Across a field, as more and more wells were drilled, while production went up, the overall output followed the general model of the single well(s) -- just all combined. Somewhere as extraction continued, a "Peak" or maximum production level would be reached, and then taper down over time, roughly in a curve mirroring the rise.
This played out in the US about 1971, as Peak Production of Conventional Oil hit around 10 Million Barrels per day. It has since tapered down and continues to go lower year-after-year. Simple Conventional Oil was boosted by water flooding (Secondary Recovery) and then Pressure (Tertiary Recovery). The world has been following this pattern, as well, and Peak Production of Conventional Oil for the Entire World was reaching about in 2005 to 2006.
But THAT was all Hubbert's observations and modeling was about. None of the silly economic "therefore" fiction that followed. We have since moved on to Un-Conventional Oil, such as Deep Ocean and Frack. But again -- ALL resource extraction follows that same production modeling and curves, and will eventually hit some Peak Production level, and then taper down. It is just Math.
The silly thing at this point is US can just move on past Oil. Most Oil now only goes to be burnt into the Air via ICEs (Internal Combustion Engines) for Transportation. Renewable Electricity can now handle most of that Cheaper, Cleaner, and Faster, and Safer.
Peak Oil is correct because it is based on the immutable laws of geology and thermodynamics- no belief and ideology is required, as is the case with "global warming"/"climate change."
Global oil production has peaked in November 2018. Peak means maximum production of a resource, it's simple math! The only way to disprove Peak Oil is by demonstrating that it is possible to extract a finite resource indefinitely.
As oil depletes, there is more energy needed to extract the remaining resource, so you have less and less to left over for civilizational "advancement", economic "growth", food production, and running the complex systems of society. There is no substitute for oil. No other energy source available is so dense, transportable, versatile, and convenient. We're heading for a catabolic collapse that will make the Bronze Age Collapse look like the proverbial Sunday school picnic...
Last edited by Taggerung; 06-12-2021 at 04:22 AM..
I recently watched some stupid documentary about Dubai from 2007. The narrator explained they were trying to diversify their economy because the UAE would run out of oil by 2015.
Fast-forward to 2020 and not only have they not run out of oil but their output was 15% higher last year than it was in 2007.
Is the entire crust made up a of petroleum or something? I just cant believe we have used so much so far, yet can still find more.
I am not saying oil will peak or not. I just surprised we have that much to begin with and still have some left. We use it for everything.
We've entered into the terminal stages of oil depletion...
Oil discoveries peaked in the 60s... We are burning oil at a rate many times faster than we are discovering it. The world has been thoroughly explored over the last 130 years, there are no Ghawars left waiting to be found.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tencent
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There's probably more fermented dinosaur bones and algae below but we don't have the tech to get to it. In 50 years we're in big trouble unless we rapidly innovate and increase consumption efficiency by 300%.
50 years? More like 5-10.
Global oil production has very likely already peaked.
The global financial system requires perpetual growth. Without oil production increases, further growth is not possible. Oil is the economy.
All paper assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, fiat currencies) derive their value from the expectation of perpetual future growth. When that growth is no longer possible due to peak oil, most paper assets will see their value collapse, and be worth next to nothing.
Technology doesn't produce energy, it devours it
Last edited by Taggerung; 06-12-2021 at 04:16 AM..
Let me guess . . . no one involved in this conservation has actually read or studied anything of Hubbert's resource extraction modeling? That is the entire basis of Peak Oil Production.
Hubbert observed that new Oil wells generally have a high output and that they taper down over time. Across a field, as more and more wells were drilled, while production went up, the overall output followed the general model of the single well(s) -- just all combined. Somewhere as extraction continued, a "Peak" or maximum production level would be reached, and then taper down over time, roughly in a curve mirroring the rise.
This played out in the US about 1971, as Peak Production of Conventional Oil hit around 10 Million Barrels per day. It has since tapered down and continues to go lower year-after-year. Simple Conventional Oil was boosted by water flooding (Secondary Recovery) and then Pressure (Tertiary Recovery). The world has been following this pattern, as well, and Peak Production of Conventional Oil for the Entire World was reaching about in 2005 to 2006.
But THAT was all Hubbert's observations and modeling was about. None of the silly economic "therefore" fiction that followed. We have since moved on to Un-Conventional Oil, such as Deep Ocean and Frack. But again -- ALL resource extraction follows that same production modeling and curves, and will eventually hit some Peak Production level, and then taper down. It is just Math.
The silly thing at this point is US can just move on past Oil. Most Oil now only goes to be burnt into the Air via ICEs (Internal Combustion Engines) for Transportation. Renewable Electricity can now handle most of that Cheaper, Cleaner, and Faster, and Safer.
I like you. But we are not moving past oil for at least 3 or 4 decades and we simply could not without utter economic devastation. Further, a growing mass of thinkers in the area seem to believe we cannot really go net green unless and until we go hard into nuclear. That ain't happening next week.
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