Quote:
Originally Posted by Tightwad
Folk's the root question that's being ignored is not how much gas will cost but will gas be available at any price?
Look around your local area to see how many gas stations have closed in the last 2 years let alone how many have closed in the last 10 years. Have any new gas stations been built in your area? If so did a local gas station close shortly after the new one opened? Then think about for every station that closed there is now that many thousands of gallons of fuel NOT available in your local area.
There are far more demands for fuel than is thought to be besides cars. It's these invisible demands that will help dry up fuel in the case of any shortage at all.
People can wax and wane about gas prices ,or other petrol fuel prices, but ya'll better wake up to the fact that America is running on fumes paid for with borrowed money & blood. That can't ,and won't, go on forever.
So my advice is to adjust your lifestyle to become as independent of the oil pipe line as you can and to do so quickly. Those that do will suffer much less pain than the polly anna's that don't think the fuel will either run out or become a commodity that even the rich struggle to afford.
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I love it when people like to talk about the fuel business when it's painfully obvious they know very little about it outside of what they see as a street price or whatever soundbite their local news station happens to blurt out.
First, although Peak Oil is an acknowledged truth, there is no natural shortage of it coming anytime soon. Gas and other oil based fuels will remain around for the forseeable future. Spot shortages-if and when they occur-are almost always intentional. Either refiners cutting back production to raise their margins. Or suppliers hoarding supply because they know that just by sitting on a pipeline shipment a day or two, can get an extra five or ten cents a gallon just by selling it the next day. We heard about what happened in the South a few years back. But that is the exception and not the rule.
Now getting back to gas stations, there is too likewise no shortage of those either. Nor can we expect to see one anytime soon. Because your diatrabe there doesn't take a few things into account. Let's examine the three tiers of fuel outets.
First and bottom of the pecking order is the off-brand, independant little gas station. They typically have street names like "Kwik Korner", "Joe's Gas Shack", "Quik-E-Mart", and "Lucky Gas". They are at the end of the supply line and thus have the least access to fuel. Although they enjoy the benefit of being able to shop around for fuel (i.e. are not under contract to a supplier), and can usually sell it for a few cents cheaper than the brand names, the tradeoff is that they are at the mercy of intra-day price swings, product availability, and delivery truck availability. Since in the eyes of the industry as a whole, these guys get the lowest priority, they have to settle for "the scraps and leftovers". The independant station is as often as not a site that is nearing the end of its viable life. They tend to suffer from image and perception problems and the sites are often small, run down, and poorly maintained. Many of them are unbranded not by choice, but because their credit and finances are often so shady that no major will extend them credit. Close to half of undependants have to prepay for their fuel. And being subject to the whims and vagaries of the Spot market, they can end up losing money even before their next load arrives. It seems silly but yes. Trying to earn a living just selling gas is a sure fire path to financial ruin these days. Yet far too many of these dealers still try to earn profit from gasoline. Some-but not many-of these places have a convenince store and/or repair shop. THAT'S where the money is made. The gas is break-even at best and used as a lure to get someone inside. The ones that have little more than two or three pumps accompanied by a cashier shack that sells little more than gum and cigarettes-they are in a life and death struggle for survival.
The unbranded station. While relatively common now, they have already been dropping like flies these last few years. I expect to see them become quite rare by the end of this decade. And extinct by the end of the next. The ones in outlying and rural areas that are supllanted by a strong C-store will be the last to go. The ones now inside the cities and Suburbs? The first.
Next you have the branded sites. Think BP, Chevron, Exxon, etc. These aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Many of the ones you see now being demolished are being rebuilt to modern standards. If any of you have been inside a modern BP Connect site lately (or
new ARCO-AM/PM on the West Coast), this is the future of the local fueling station: clean. Convenient. Large and well lit. Large supply of snacks/hot food/coffee/etc. inside.
And finally you have the 600 pound gorilla: the Hypermarket. This is your Costco, Sams Club, or Safeway outlet. They have a couple of dozen dispensers. And sell for anywhere from a few pennies to a dime or more below that of the next closest gas station. THIS is where the lions share of action and future of the industry is found. They get the best of both worlds: they can shop around for their fuel a-la unbranded and can therefore get the best price. They are able to negotiate substantial discounts because of bulk volume pricing. Furthermore, they are able to sell it at or below cost as a loss-leader to get you into the store. It is a fantastic formula that's been a stunning success and will only rise in the future as more folks demand the absolute cheapest price coupled with the convenience of "errand consolidation". One Costco can fulfill the fueling needs of four or five little standalone gas stations. So while you think that "sites are closing left and right" in your area, check around. Has a Costco or Sams Club gone up nearby recently? Chances are. One has. And has effectively siphoned off enough business to kill off the little independant. Incidentally, this is another reason why the no-name gas station is doomed and not long for this world. They are getting attacked from all sides: being at the end of the supply chain. Volatile pricing. An inability or unwillingness to embrace and adapt to the ancilliary sales business model. And the ferocious price undercutting from the hypermarkets who can buy and sell for a substantial cost below.
And finally let's look at "alternative" fuels. Forget all that hype. Because that's largely what it is. Not even taking into account technological feasibility and viability issues, it's a classic chicken-or-egg conundrum. No one is going to invest in the necessary upgrades to offer those fuels until enough vehicles are in the area to justify it. And no one is going to buy a so-equipped vehicle until there are filling stations offering the service.
Until you can figure out a way to break that Gordian Knot, all this talk about mass-produced cars running on algae and used french fry oil is just a pipe dream. Realistically, I wouldn't expect to see anything like that implemented on a widescale basis until the 2030's at the earliest.
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