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It's data from a single van line that doesn't factor in all moves or even most. Legacy moving van lines only account for 50% of the nation's moves. Regional lines as well as containerization (PODS PackRat, ABF, UPack) plus the DIY moving rounds out the rest of the field. Although there are additional statics that can be used as a verification tool, they are also under suspicion. The last census count is bogged down in challenges of undercounting.
And you have many states that have much fewer actual resident then what is on paper. Take Montana, N. Dakota, Texas and Florida. All of them have very favorable laws that enable full-time RVers to use their state for taxes and vehicle registration even though they never set a foot in that state. Does anyone really believe all those people in Class A RVs with Montana plates actually live in the state?
By way of another example, A fiend lives in AZ but is considered a remote worker so they establish residency where they want to establish residency. Guess what, he legally lives and is considered a new resident of some cubby hole box in "suite" shop in Texas. No taxes, no smog inspections, no anything AZ, just TX. He went to Texas once to sign the box rental with mail/package forwarding paperwork. He and several others who are in AZ, live in Texas.
If your buddy is actually doing all of this he is breaking the law.
TX tagged RVs over 4,500, can't imagine one smaller, have to pass an annual state inspection. Newer RVs have to pass an ODB-II port test checking for smog issues among other things. Older RVs are subject to a tailpipe test......neither is possible remotely.
Annual means your buddy has to do this every single year or he does not receive a new registration sticker.
The OP link also references 1 year of data also so don't see much difference there. But the data from the Census is much more scientific than the data from a moving company - not everyone uses moving companies.
The interesting thing is that CA is the top state for move outs on one list and not even on the other.
United Van Lines, giant in the industry, shows this same migration pattern many years running now.
That's why the Northeast has lost electoral votes, while the Southeast adds them every census.
You can select whatever year you want above the map. Start at the beginning (1977) and keep selecting consecutive years. You'll notice that the only areas that have consistent net outward bound patterns are the Northeast and Midwest - including, as I pointed out earlier, the republican areas in the Northeast and Midwest. It's not like people are flocking to Ohio. This is nothing more than the well-known, decades-long pattern of people moving from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West. It has nothing to do with politics, it has everything to do with nicer weather and/or nicer scenery. People were moving to the South even when democrats controlled the South, and people are moving to Western states like Washington, Oregon and Colorado even though they're controlled by democrats.
Here is a map showing population gain or loss by county 2010-2020.
Notice that in Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina and most of the other booming Southern states, it is the cities and suburbs which are booming. Those are where democrats are concentrated.
Meanwhile, huge swaths of republican areas are losing population.
I wouldn't be so sure, at least not in the case of Tennessee. The Nashville metropolitan area consists of 13 counties. Only ONE of them (Davidson, where Nashville itself is located) went for Biden in 2020. The entire rest of the metro area is solidly red. ALL of the counties that make up the metropolitan areas of Knoxville and Chattanooga went red.
I wouldn't be so sure, at least not in the case of Tennessee. The Nashville metropolitan area consists of 13 counties. Only ONE of them (Davidson, where Nashville itself is located) went for Biden in 2020. The entire rest of the metro area is solidly red. ALL of the counties that make up the metropolitan areas of Knoxville and Chattanooga went red.
Bingo. I lived there 17 years. Tn is solid red, and Nashville is not changing it. Only about 30% of their metro population lives in the city itself, and the city' s Democratic margins are mild versus, say, Northeastern cities Democratic margin %. Tn is like most southern states, population addition simply add red electoral votes.
I wouldn't be so sure, at least not in the case of Tennessee. The Nashville metropolitan area consists of 13 counties. Only ONE of them (Davidson, where Nashville itself is located) went for Biden in 2020. The entire rest of the metro area is solidly red. ALL of the counties that make up the metropolitan areas of Knoxville and Chattanooga went red.
Yes, Nashville is blue, but the surrounding suburban areas are various shades of pink. I did say the suburbs were purple, not blue.
But TN is the most conservative of the ones I mentioned. In the other states - Texas, Georgia and NC - many of the suburbs are flat-out blue. Even in Dallas, for example, the former republican bastions of Plano and Richardson are mostly light blue. Heck, even Frisco is about 50-50.
Yes, Nashville is blue, but the surrounding suburban areas are various shades of pink. I did say the suburbs were purple, not blue.
But TN is the most conservative of the ones I mentioned. In the other states - Texas, Georgia and NC - many of the suburbs are flat-out blue. Even in Dallas, for example, the former republican bastions of Plano and Richardson are mostly light blue. Heck, even Frisco is about 50-50.
Oh yea, sure. When was the last democrat elected to statewide office in TX?
Oh yea, sure. When was the last democrat elected to statewide office in TX?
Nice deflection you got there.
Recall what I said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007
... Not only are there red states that are stagnating and blue states that are booming, within the red states that are booming, people are largely moving to the blue cities or purple suburbs.
So yeah, as I said, they are red states. But most of the people moving there are moving to the blue cities or purple (and sometimes even blue) suburbs.
So yeah, as I said, they are red states. But most of the people moving there are moving to the blue cities or purple (and sometimes even blue) suburbs.
That was an honest question. And until you look it up you won't believe it.
Big cities have been home to the poor, very poor and destitute, reliable blue voters today, for thousands of years far back into the old world. Ergo your big point fades to zero.
United Van Lines, giant in the industry, shows this same migration pattern many years running now.
That's why the Northeast has lost electoral votes, while the Southeast adds them every census.
The article specifically states "this past year" - any longer is speculation. Also specifically states 110K moved - this is out of some 27M that move each year and 4.8M that move between states each year. This is data that is biased towards those that use higher end moving services.
And again, their data is that CA is not a top exit state yet every other data point says differently. Also the census is the other source cited and is what determines electoral votes movement, not a van line data
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