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The states that are picking up people are not the lowest tax states nor the cheapest housing states. Texas and Georgia are not the cheapest nor lowest tax states you can go to. Somebody check the home prices in the major metros of those states, please.
Something else I'll note is that due to housing prices and mortgage rates, people are selling their houses at some of the lowest rates on record. So mobility is low right now.
Not at all true - just accept it, that taxes and regulations drive people away. Housing prices are going up sn some of these states specifically because many are moving there - normal supply and demand. The states that are picking up people are those that are red states that are low in regulations and overall low cost of living - Texas is #1, Florida is #2, South Carolina is #3 - those losing are blue states with high regulations, high taxes and high costs - California #1, New York #2 and Illinois #3. From Forbes.com using USPS change-of-address data, these are the top states people are the recent population gainers and where they are fleeing from.
Those gaining people; "#1 Texas - Part of the influx is due to the state’s conservative political environment, which is inviting to many people from nearby liberal states. Low taxes, a robust economy, a low cost of living and excellent weather round out the list of why Texas is a popular destination.
#2 Florida - An admittedly non-scientific survey conducted by The Tampa Bay Times told of taxes, affordable housing, sunshine and relaxed Covid restrictions being the leading causes of Florida’s influx of residents. Sandy beaches and tropical weather are a magnet for those searching for the affordable endless summer.
#3 South Carolina - Charleston.com cited reasons similar to Florida’s population increase, with the addition of people in search of green space as the drivers behind South Carolina’s growth."
Those losing people; "#1 California - Rising housing costs, rising taxes and politics seem to be driving many people to look for opportunities elsewhere. Other factors that emigrants have cited are the rising threat of wildfires and the constantly increasing cost of living. Many families from the state are relocating to Texas.
#2 New York - Moving out of New York has become trendy, it would seem. The skyrocketing cost of living and ever-increasing local, state and federal taxes are driving factors.
#3 Illinois - IllinoisPolicy.org cited opportunities for employment and better housing as the leading cause of the population decline in the state. Nearly half of would-be movers also said that the tax rate is a major factor in their reasons for leaving. Weather, high traffic levels and crime only make the declining population problem worse for the state."
Not at all true - just accept it, that taxes and regulations drive people away. Housing prices are going up sn some of these states specifically because many are moving there - normal supply and demand. The states that are picking up people are those that are red states that are low in regulations and overall low cost of living - Texas is #1, Florida is #2, South Carolina is #3 - those losing are blue states with high regulations, high taxes and high costs - California #1, New York #2 and Illinois #3. From Forbes.com using USPS change-of-address data, these are the top states people are the recent population gainers and where they are fleeing from.
Those gaining people; "#1 Texas - Part of the influx is due to the state’s conservative political environment, which is inviting to many people from nearby liberal states. Low taxes, a robust economy, a low cost of living and excellent weather round out the list of why Texas is a popular destination.
#2 Florida - An admittedly non-scientific survey conducted by The Tampa Bay Times told of taxes, affordable housing, sunshine and relaxed Covid restrictions being the leading causes of Florida’s influx of residents. Sandy beaches and tropical weather are a magnet for those searching for the affordable endless summer.
#3 South Carolina - Charleston.com cited reasons similar to Florida’s population increase, with the addition of people in search of green space as the drivers behind South Carolina’s growth."
Those losing people; "#1 California - Rising housing costs, rising taxes and politics seem to be driving many people to look for opportunities elsewhere. Other factors that emigrants have cited are the rising threat of wildfires and the constantly increasing cost of living. Many families from the state are relocating to Texas.
#2 New York - Moving out of New York has become trendy, it would seem. The skyrocketing cost of living and ever-increasing local, state and federal taxes are driving factors.
#3 Illinois - IllinoisPolicy.org cited opportunities for employment and better housing as the leading cause of the population decline in the state. Nearly half of would-be movers also said that the tax rate is a major factor in their reasons for leaving. Weather, high traffic levels and crime only make the declining population problem worse for the state."
The bold is what's important.
Also, look at WHERE people are moving to within those states. They're not filling up the podunk towns. Texas has 100 counties losing population. Urban and suburban areas are growing. Rural and agricultural areas are declining.
Jobs and housing costs are the main driver of moves, to the extent moves are happening. Nobody is going to spend $8000 on moving cost to save $1800 a year on taxes. I've lived in 5 states, blue, purple, and red, and I never took much note of my tax bill. It was a bit more or a bit less here and there, but overall, not something worth uprooting my life over. Better jobs, better bang for the buck on housing, and lifestyle factors like weather and amenities are what drive moves. Not a few tenths of percentage points on taxes.
My point is, these things happen historically, and changing the governor or tweaking the laws in small ways won't do much to stop it. The shifts are due to larger meta-factors. The U.S. has gone through various periods where some states are fashionable to move to and others are not. Illinois had Chicago, which was the city of the century...the 19th century... representative of everything modern in the late 1800s, early 1900s. The whole Great Lakes area was booming then. The south was backward at that time, poor and agricultural.
California was the king of the 20th century. Politically and geographically it reaped the benefits of investments from WWII and the Cold War. Now those factors no longer exist. It had its time. As these changes progress, the character of the states will change. California used to be a Republican state dominated by agriculture. Now it's not.
If you want the lowest taxes and lowest housing costs, someplace like DFW or Atlanta are NOT the places to move. Texas is getting pretty expensive actually, unless you go to one of the declining counties:
Also, look at WHERE people are moving to within those states. They're not filling up the podunk towns. Texas has 100 counties losing population. Urban and suburban areas are growing. Rural and agricultural areas are declining.
Jobs and housing costs are the main driver of moves, to the extent moves are happening. Nobody is going to spend $8000 on moving cost to save $1800 a year on taxes. I've lived in 5 states, blue, purple, and red, and I never took much note of my tax bill. It was a bit more or a bit less here and there, but overall, not something worth uprooting my life over. Better jobs, better bang for the buck on housing, and lifestyle factors like weather and amenities are what drive moves. Not a few tenths of percentage points on taxes.
My point is, these things happen historically, and changing the governor or tweaking the laws in small ways won't do much to stop it. The shifts are due to larger meta-factors. The U.S. has gone through various periods where some states are fashionable to move to and others are not. Illinois had Chicago, which was the city of the century...the 19th century... representative of everything modern in the late 1800s, early 1900s. The whole Great Lakes area was booming then. The south was backward at that time, poor and agricultural.
California was the king of the 20th century. Politically and geographically it reaped the benefits of investments from WWII and the Cold War. Now those factors no longer exist. It had its time. As these changes progress, the character of the states will change. California used to be a Republican state dominated by agriculture. Now it's not.
If you want the lowest taxes and lowest housing costs, someplace like DFW or Atlanta are NOT the places to move. Texas is getting pretty expensive actually, unless you go to one of the declining counties:
Still deflecting - if it was weather, CA would be at the top for moving to instead of away from. The bottom line is that liberal policies and the costs associated are driving people to those states that are less restrictive and less costly.
It is not about what YOU want, it is about the trend and why the majority are moving. People are moving to Texas because of low costs and good jobs and from CA because of high costs and liberal policies.
Also you are just making up numbers - the savings are often well more than $1800 every year vs the one time cost of moving that averages just under $5000 according to the data. According to USA Today - moving to San Antonio TX from San Diego CA, will cut their rent by over half - saving the average person almost $1500/mo in rent - let alone savings in taxes or other costs. A move from San Mateo to Dallas will save a person over $1M in housing costs.
BTW - I have lived in CA, WA, LA, FL, CT, NY, IL, VA & NV and worked for over 6 months in HI, DC, TX and AZ so lots of experience with the policies, taxes and costs in many states - including many of the top states for leaving and gains. For us, moving to NV from CA will save about $10K in property tax ($14K vs $4K), $20K in income tax ($20K vs $0K) and about $5K in other costs annually - those are real annual numbers and about 20x your made up estimate.
Let me remind you that the info is from an expensive moving company. Most real Texans move in a pickup truck and U-Haul trailer.
I’m a real Texan and wouldn’t consider moving via pickup truck and uhaul. Then again I’m skilled enough that my company pays for it or I earn enough so I don’t have to do it myself. Stupid Texas pride nonsense
Still deflecting - if it was weather, CA would be at the top for moving to instead of away from. The bottom line is that liberal policies and the costs associated are driving people to those states that are less restrictive and less costly.
It is not about what YOU want, it is about the trend and why the majority are moving. People are moving to Texas because of low costs and good jobs and from CA because of high costs and liberal policies.
Also you are just making up numbers - the savings are often well more than $1800 every year vs the one time cost of moving that averages just under $5000 according to the data. According to USA Today - moving to San Antonio TX from San Diego CA, will cut their rent by over half - saving the average person almost $1500/mo in rent - let alone savings in taxes or other costs. A move from San Mateo to Dallas will save a person over $1M in housing costs.
BTW - I have lived in CA, WA, LA, FL, CT, NY, IL, VA & NV and worked for over 6 months in HI, DC, TX and AZ so lots of experience with the policies, taxes and costs in many states - including many of the top states for leaving and gains. For us, moving to NV from CA will save about $10K in property tax ($14K vs $4K), $20K in income tax ($20K vs $0K) and about $5K in other costs annually - those are real annual numbers and about 20x your made up estimate.
Iirc, Alaska is the lowest tax state. Why is it not booming? Texas is about in the middle.
South Dakota, Wyoming, Missouri, and Delaware are also low. Why aren't they booming?
If you make a lot of money, you want a low income tax state. If your tax bill fluctuates by thousands based on state, income is clearly significant enough to notice and you're in the top 5% or better. I've never made so much it makes a difference to me. It's a few hundred here or there.
If you make average money, you want a state with medium to low property tax.
If you're poor, you probably want a high tax high service state.
If your money comes from capital gains or otherwise pre-exists, it's more up to preference. The states' policies probably don't matter much to you.
South Dakota, Wyoming, Missouri, and Delaware are also low. Why aren't they booming?
If you make a lot of money, you want a low income tax state. If your tax bill fluctuates by thousands based on state, income is clearly significant enough to notice and you're in the top 5% or better. I've never made so much it makes a difference to me. It's a few hundred here or there.
If you make average money, you want a state with medium to low property tax.
If you're poor, you probably want a high tax high service state.
If your money comes from capital gains or otherwise pre-exists, it's more up to preference. The states' policies probably don't matter much to you.
That assumes taxes are all you move for.
According to The Tax Foundation Texas is 6th best for state and local aggregated tax burden.
Why anyone would care about this on a personal level is beyond me
Quote:
In this study, we define a state’s tax burden as state and local taxes paid by a state’s residents divided by that state’s share of net national product
Different lists rank the states differently. Texas has some of the highest property and sales taxes in the country, but no income tax. So the tax hit from state like TX will be somewhat more personalized based on your spending and living habits.
My overall point in this discussion, though, is that taxes are not a prime factor in why people move. Most people move for jobs and family.
In my case, I will get paid about median income wherever I go. So I prefer lower property taxes and am less concerned about income tax. The worst possible world for me is a place where they have high property tax and don't pay well - Texas fits that bill.
A high earner would care less about property tax and more about income tax.
Once the source for most accuracy is posted, to answer the correct “which states are losing the most” from the thread’s title, this thread is done.
Continued on and on and on is my data is better than your data. Similar to religious arguments of my religion is better than yours….
The data from moving van companies is worthless. I don't know what the percentages are, but very few families moving use the moving van companies.
I very rarely see a moving van. I will see dozens of rental trucks and more than the occasional pickup loaded high with furniture.
I had two different families from California move into my rentals this year, and neither family used a moving van company, so they were not counted as people moving out of California, and yet, here they are, living in Idaho. Two other CA families moved into the neighborhood of one of my rentals and neither of those families used a moving van company so they didn't get counted.
The people across the street from me moved in with loaded pickup trucks. The people next door to me moved in with an off-brand pods system, so neither of those families were counted as moving anywhere (one family from WA, one from CA)
I moved in with my privately owned box trailer. No one counted me.
I've been in this house for 5 years and I have seen exactly one neighbor using a moving van company although I don't know if they moved out of state and got counted.
My only point being that the moving van companies are not providing any useful information.
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