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I guess I'm a bit pessimistic because I am a software engineer. I've been watching jobs go overseas and they have increased exponentially since 2007 due to the economy. I don't see those jobs coming back. The only software jobs requiring US workers is Federal government work. State and Local government do not require US workers.
I'm back in school taking classes for my "next" career for when/if I get layed off and most likely it will be at 50% of my current salary (been in software for 20 years and worked my way up the ladder) and I know many colleagues layed off over the last 6 months that have not found comparible jobs; all are underemployed from where they were. These are the new consumers that will not spend like they did before simply because they don't have the money.
I guess that's why I'm a bit jaded on all this recovery talk.
I guess I'm a bit pessimistic because I am a software engineer. I've been watching jobs go overseas and they have increased exponentially since 2007 due to the economy. I don't see those jobs coming back. The only software jobs requiring US workers is Federal government work. State and Local government do not require US workers.
I'm back in school taking classes for my "next" career for when/if I get layed off and most likely it will be at 50% of my current salary (been in software for 20 years and worked my way up the ladder) and I know many colleagues layed off over the last 6 months that have not found comparible jobs; all are underemployed from where they were. These are the new consumers that will not spend like they did before simply because they don't have the money.
I guess that's why I'm a bit jaded on all this recovery talk.
But HappyTexan, the recovery isn't meant to be directed towards the average joe, or even the average white collar worker.
The recovery is directed at the owners of capital. Large business owners, investors, executives, board members, major shareholders of preferred shares, etc. Once the bankers are able to re-define their assets (from junk to whatever they want) and dump them at a higher "value" to the government (ie, the rest of us smucks), they can loosen up credit so they can continue to profit from capital ventures overseas, losses from CDOs (payouts from AIG), and speculate on the commodities markets again.
This is "their" recovery. When investors can let loose again and profit on outrageous market swings and dump billions into foreign markets at the expense of the rest of us. So much capital has been freed up thanks to you and I and fellow tax payers. The banks (and since the brokerages and investment firms became banks) don't have to actually balance their balance sheets and maintain any sense of sustainable leverage ratios because their assets are just fine (and if they aren't, they just sell it to govco - such a beautiful system!).
If you realize that nothing and nobody is really working for you... then you can finally realize that life is only going to be harder, cut-back, and let those who dare default, default, and let the price levels ease making it more affordable to live for all of us.
Of course, the owner's of capital is on the other end. They want price levels to stabilize and rise.... the only way they can make more (and keep what they made) at the expense of everybody else.
It's not like jobs are coming back, or production capacity increasing (like they are going to build factories here? when demand is going to remain low?). The only real way for average Americans to actually realize stabilization or some growth is when price levels fall (as a result of persistent low demand and defaults), and wages go up (this one I don't know how would happen - college education completion has risen from 15-30% since the 70s but the median personal income has been relatively stagnant over the same period). As it is, prices levels are going to go up as credit eases for capital owners (allowing them to speculate on commodities and the global market again), and wages are going to go down as more people get educated and consumption falls (supply and demand).
So, don't expect a recovery for USA... expect a recovery for investors and capital owners. Not the producers.
If you realize that nothing and nobody is really working for you... then you can finally realize that life is only going to be harder, cut-back, and let those who dare default, default, and let the price levels ease making it more affordable to live for all of us.
-chuck22b
Why Mr. Chuck22b I do realize exactly that and have for the past 2 years while I make my "plan B". Going back to school is part of it and training for a career that won't be offshored (have to physically do something) is what I'm doing now. I've also cut back and trying to live on 50% of my current salary, again, to prepare for the future.
If I'm wrong then I end up with more money in the bank and some good education under my belt. If I'm right..then I will not be one of the shocked and helpless unemployeed waiting for the government to save me.
Why Mr. Chuck22b I do realize exactly that and have for the past 2 years while I make my "plan B". Going back to school is part of it and training for a career that won't be offshored (have to physically do something) is what I'm doing now. I've also cut back and trying to live on 50% of my current salary, again, to prepare for the future.
If I'm wrong then I end up with more money in the bank and some good education under my belt. If I'm right..then I will not be one of the shocked and helpless unemployeed waiting for the government to save me.
Good for you ... I'm skeptical of education and training as the end all be all for making it though... Millions of folks are doing the same thing... All part of the plan in directing labor so that there would be a glut to lower wages.
I think being self-sustainable is probably a better direction. And doing both would be best.
But HappyTexan, the recovery isn't meant to be directed towards the average joe, or even the average white collar worker.
The recovery is directed at the owners of capital. Large business owners, investors, executives, board members, major shareholders of preferred shares, etc. Once the bankers are able to re-define their assets (from junk to whatever they want) and dump them at a higher "value" to the government (ie, the rest of us smucks), they can loosen up credit so they can continue to profit from capital ventures overseas, losses from CDOs (payouts from AIG), and speculate on the commodities markets again.
This is "their" recovery. When investors can let loose again and profit on outrageous market swings and dump billions into foreign markets at the expense of the rest of us. So much capital has been freed up thanks to you and I and fellow tax payers. The banks (and since the brokerages and investment firms became banks) don't have to actually balance their balance sheets and maintain any sense of sustainable leverage ratios because their assets are just fine (and if they aren't, they just sell it to govco - such a beautiful system!).
If you realize that nothing and nobody is really working for you... then you can finally realize that life is only going to be harder, cut-back, and let those who dare default, default, and let the price levels ease making it more affordable to live for all of us.
Of course, the owner's of capital is on the other end. They want price levels to stabilize and rise.... the only way they can make more (and keep what they made) at the expense of everybody else.
It's not like jobs are coming back, or production capacity increasing (like they are going to build factories here? when demand is going to remain low?). The only real way for average Americans to actually realize stabilization or some growth is when price levels fall (as a result of persistent low demand and defaults), and wages go up (this one I don't know how would happen - college education completion has risen from 15-30% but the median personal income has been relatively stagnant over the same period). As it is, prices levels are going to go up as credit eases for capital owners (allowing them to speculate on commodities and the global market again), and wages are going to go down as more people get educated and consumption falls (supply and demand).
So, don't expect a recovery for USA... expect a recovery for investors and capital owners. Not the producers.
-chuck22b
Great post! I wish more people could grasp the concept that "WE" is "THEM", and not "US".
I think being self-sustainable is probably a better direction. And doing both would be best.
-chuck22b
You must be reading my mind I have chickens, grow lots of veggies and have expanded my garden and am looking to get some bigger acreage to become more independent of the system but..will still need that off-farm job to pay property taxes, etc.
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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I've heard that some people who own their property outright, keep precious metals just to be able to sell a little at a time to pay property tax, no matter what happens to their job or the economy, HappyTexan.
I've heard that some people who own their property outright, keep precious metals just to be able to sell a little at a time to pay property tax, no matter what happens to their job or the economy, HappyTexan.
I'm not into the bury some gold in the back yard Woof. If anything I see myself more as a barter type person.
Say maybe you'll trade a few gold coins for eggs, milk and organic beef and then I have my tax money
See..it will take all kinds.
The only way to have a nominal recovery in housing and stock markets would be through massive dollar debasement (hyperinflation). As unemployment and forclosure rates continue to rise, Wall Street will eventually have to realize its losses. 30:1 leverage folks on some of the worst debt out there. Do you think they just magically got out of their positions? Markets are irrational. What idiot actually bought the Dow at 14,000? We may see Dow 10,000 before our next leg down. I don't know. Anything can happen, but the outstanding CDS market is trillions upon trillions of dollars. Our entire nation is insolvent. The world is for that matter. NWO is on the way. The master planners are just buying a little extra time to get the final kinks worked out. Candyland is a child's game. I suggest yall grow up.
I'm not into the bury some gold in the back yard Woof. If anything I see myself more as a barter type person.
Say maybe you'll trade a few gold coins for eggs, milk and organic beef and then I have my tax money
See..it will take all kinds.
Hi HappyTexan,
Englands Treasure by Forraign Trade. or The Ballance of our
Forraign Trade is The Rule of our Treasure
Written by Thomas Mun of Lond. Merchant, and now published for
the Common good by his son John Mun of Bearsted in the County of
Kent, Esquire.
...
But now that we have seen the occasions by which the Spanish
treasure is dispersed into so many places of the world, let us
likewise discover how and in what proportion each Countrey doth
enjoy these Moneys, for we find that Turkey and divers other
Nations have great plenty thereof, although they drive no trade
with Spain, which seems to contradict the former reason, where we
say that this treasure is obtained by a Necessity of Commerce.
But to clear this point, we must know that all Nations (who habe
no Mines of their own) are enriched with Gold and Silver by one
and the same means, which is already shewed to be the ballance of
their forraign Trade: And this is not strictly tyed to be done in
those Countries where the fountain of treasure is, but rather
with such order and observations as are prescribed.
Will you take silver for that milk? I have some of that too. If you like Parmesan I'll give you that for more of it in a year. Perhaps a ricotta cheese cake from the whey with some black raspberry sauce from the patch? I can do that the day after.
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- such a beautiful system!).
... I'm skeptical of education and training as the end all be all for making it though... Millions of folks are doing the same thing... All part of the plan in directing labor so that there would be a glut to lower wages.
I have chickens, grow lots of veggies and have expanded my garden and am looking to get some bigger acreage to become more independent of the system but..will still need that off-farm job to pay property taxes, etc.
