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In this particular case 40% does equate to no chance. If you have any new math that shows 40% of the vote beating out 60% of the vote in any way please post it here, everyone would love to see it.
One thing about Romney supporters - they certainly do seem to have the market cornered when it comes to optimism.
One thing about Romney supporters - they certainly do seem to have the market cornered when it comes to optimism.
Or would that be delusion?
In this case, it's the Obama supporter who's delusioned. Casper thinks that the Intrade prediction is that Obama will get ~60% of the vote and Romney will get ~40%. Anyone with half a brain knows that the chance that Obama (or Romney) will get that high a percentage of the vote is probably about 0.0001%.
Casper doesn't seem to understand what "probability" means. His/her post would have only made sense if we were talking about a poll where Obama led with ~60%.
This is not an expected percentage of the vote, as I pointed out in my response to his/her post. Estimating that a candidate has a 60% chance of winning would, in a two-way race, probably equate to estimating that the candidate would receive about 51% (possibly 52%) of the vote.
Let's take a look at polls (this is from the liberals' beloved Huffington Post website):
The poll average shows Obama leading Romney 45.7%-44.5%. That's a 1.2 point margin, not a 20 point one.
And there's seven months before the election. Poll results will fluctuate many times between now and then. The chances on Intrade will also fluctuate many times.
Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.
Currently on InTrade, Barack Obama is predicted to have a 60.7% chance of reelection.
There is plenty of time for this number to change and for the liberals to start crying about how racist this nation is because Barack Obama wasn't reelected.
In this case, it's the Obama supporter who's delusioned. Casper thinks that the Intrade prediction is that Obama will get ~60% of the vote and Romney will get ~40%. Anyone with half a brain knows that the chance that Obama (or Romney) will get that high a percentage of the vote is probably about 0.0001%.
Casper doesn't seem to understand what "probability" means. His/her post would have only made sense if we were talking about a poll where Obama led with ~60%.
This is not an expected percentage of the vote, as I pointed out in my response to his/her post. Estimating that a candidate has a 60% chance of winning would, in a two-way race, probably equate to estimating that the candidate would receive about 51% (possibly 52%) of the vote.
Let's take a look at polls (this is from the liberals' beloved Huffington Post website):
The poll average shows Obama leading Romney 45.7%-44.5%. That's a 1.2 point margin, not a 20 point one.
And there's seven months before the election. Poll results will fluctuate many times between now and then. The chances on Intrade will also fluctuate many times.
Yes sure, whatever. I am happy to wait until November to see what the ultimate percentage counts will be, at this point the 60% vs 40% voting ratio sounds pretty close to what I see happening at that time. Now you keep on depending on your fuzzy math to find a way for Mitt to win with 40% of the vote, I am sure it will work out for you just fine
Yes sure, whatever. I am happy to wait until November to see what the ultimate percentage counts will be, at this point the 60% vs 40% voting ratio sounds pretty close to what I see happening at that time. Now you keep on depending on your fuzzy math to find a way for Mitt to win with 40% of the vote, I am sure it will work out for you just fine
For the third time, the prediction on Intrade is NOT that Obama will get 60% of the vote or that Romney will get 40% of the vote. You have proven yourself to not understand what terminology means. "Probability" and "chance" of winning are not the same as expected percentage of the vote. Perhaps you can try to understand.
You are beyond delusioned if you think Obama has any real chance of getting 60% of the vote or that there is any real chance that Romney will only get 40% of the vote (anyone who thinks Romney has any real chance of getting 60% of the vote or that Obama has any real chance of only getting 40% of the vote is also delusioned).
The prediction is that Obama has a ~60% chance of winning. Ignoring the electoral college and third party candidates, this would mean that they think there is a ~60% chance that he will get over 50% of the vote (as low as 50.000001%) and that there is a ~40% chance that he will get less than that, losing the election.
The percentage of the vote he would be estimated to receive would probably be around 51%-52% if the prediction is that is a 60% chance he will win and the percentage that Romney would be estimated to receive would be around 48%-49% if the prediction is that is a 40% chance he will win. If they were predicting that Obama would receive 60% of the vote, they would probably say he had a ~95% or higher chance of winning.
Do you understand what I am saying? Or do you really not understand what basic words like "chance" mean?
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 04-06-2012 at 01:12 PM..
Obama was around 49-51 on intrade until the GOP primary season started. When the GOP primary got ugly (Cain, Perry, Bachmann, etc), that's when Obama went up to around 60 and as stayed ever since.
You mean BEFORE it became KNOWN who Obama was going to be faced with?
OF COURSE it was about 50/50 before it was known who his likely oponant would be.
What ELSE would you expect it to be when there's no idea who'll be on the other side?
The GOP is just now starting to coalesce around Romney as the nominee, once they do, Obama's percentage will fall even more. Obama's approval rating is a good example of why this is not good for the Democrats.
Intrade is useful as an indicator, but I find it to be more reactive than predictive.
I completely disagree with you and surprisingly agree with Casper...yah, pass me what you're smoking.
There is NO. WAY any Ron Paul supporter is going to vote for Romney. None. Considering many of those supporters are NOT Republicans, there isn't a chance in hell that Romney will pick up their votes.
And no way is someone who is for Santorum going to vote for Romney. Santorum is extremist right, Romney is a fricken Democrat with an R behind his name but "too Republican" for most Democrats.
I predict that if Romney is the candidate, we will have four more years of this colossal mess, St. Hope and Change.
I completely disagree with you and surprisingly agree with Casper...yah, pass me what you're smoking.
There is NO. WAY any Ron Paul supporter is going to vote for Romney. None. Considering many of those supporters are NOT Republicans, there isn't a chance in hell that Romney will pick up their votes.
And no way is someone who is for Santorum going to vote for Romney. Santorum is extremist right, Romney is a fricken Democrat with an R behind his name but "too Republican" for most Democrats.
I predict that if Romney is the candidate, we will have four more years of this colossal mess, St. Hope and Change.
Yup.
RCP poll average (not a SINGLE poll - but an AVERAGE of ALL the major polls): Obama 48%, Romney 43.1% - and that gap is widening.
I am certain there will be fluctuations in that number as events domestically and internationally evolve. That said, I have always contended that this is Obama's election to lose.
Doubtful he will lose. There is no Freaking way sane women will vote for those idiot republcan men trying to shove a bible up the wombs of all American women. That's one thing.
The other things are many, but Mittens is so out of touch with most Americans and he really is like an Etch-A-Scetch. One really doesn't know what he will say or do. He blows in the wind.
There will be an election slaughter of republicans in November. This in not 2010, friend.
More like 96.7% chance. Theres no way Romney can beat Obama, he is a proven liar and flip flopper.
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