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Governor Palin has sent shockwaves through the GOP elite establishment after endorsing a complete unknown candidate. Just like in the 2010 mid term elections, Governor Palin is showing her political influence again. She was highly victorious during the mid terms with her endorsements, especially her 'Take Back The 20' campaign. It seems we might see the same thing happen again for 2012.
As recently as a week ago, Deb Fischer was dismissed by the establishment. Why? Because she is not part of the good old boys' permanent political class," Palin wrote on her Facebook page. "The message from the people of Nebraska is simple and powerful: America is looking for real change in Washington, and commonsense conservatives like Deb Fischer represent that change."
Fischer defeated Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg last night and will now go up against Democrat Bob Kerrey, a former senator and governor, in the fall. Bruning, Stenberg and their allies spent over $2.5 million in the race.
That makes two victories for Palin in Senate GOP primaries. She also endorsed Richard Mourdock in Indiana, who defeated six-term Sen. Richard Lugar. Palin is also playing in the Texas Senate race, giving her support to former state solicitor general Ted Cruz.
I don't know that Palin's endorsement mattered much at all--it was more that she's a complete outsider and that Joe Ricketts dumped a huge amount of money into advertising for her at the end. (Rickets has the "ending spending super pac"--he founded Omaha based Ameritrade and his son Steve self funded a losing run against Ben Nelson a few years back).
This was a huge upset over John Bruning (the R establishment candidate and current attorney general--favored to win until right before the election) and Don Stenberg (tea party supported candidate funded by club for growth and Jim Demints senate conservative fund). People are in another "throw the bums out" mood this election cycle, and she rode that wave--she was a rancher running against two city attorneys. I like John Bruning, but both Bruning and Stenberg have major baggage that hurt them, and it opened the door for a dark horse like Fischer.
We have a unicameral state legislature (only one house--only senators and no representatives, and people don't run by party) and she made a name for herself in the 7 years she's been in office, but she's still a relative unknown on a state wide basis--most people had never heard of her, which probably helped her. I don't think she's a complete flake like Christine O'Donnell or Sharron Angle, but she's untested in terms of running for anything beyond local races. She seems to be fairly noncontroversial, which helps in a state like this. We'll have to see what happens.
Ever been to Nebraska? It's not a exactly "Liberal" state! A Democrat in Nebraska would probably be considered a "Conservative" anywhere else!
We have some tea party presence, but most conservatives in Nebraska aren't raving religious extremists or radical ideologues--we tend to be more of the mainstreet oriented, common sense kind. Being controversial doesn't work here. The catholic church probably takes the most controversial stands of anyone, and that's mainly on right to life legislation. Most of the democrats in the state are pretty centrist as well--not a lot of extremes. People expect common sense here, and they don't have lots of patience when it's lacking. An example--the state and local republicans here fought the keystone pipeline being routed through the sandhills because it was a TERRIBLE plan, regardless of hysteria coming out of the national republicans who wanted it approved quickly, no matter what the consequences were locally. The fastest way to lose a race in this state is to start posturing by party vs. doing what makes sense.
I don't know that Palin's endorsement mattered much at all--it was more that she's a complete outsider and that Joe Ricketts dumped a huge amount of money into advertising for her at the end. (Rickets has the "ending spending super pac"--he founded Omaha based Ameritrade and his son Steve self funded a losing run against Ben Nelson a few years back).
Speaking of which, looks like he's also gonna bring back Rev. Wright too in the general campaign. That ought to be fun.
There's a reason why McCain wouldn't go there--this may backfire on them. We'll have to see.
Exactly. Obama's unknown numbers are near zero, which lowers the threshold at which negative ads run into diminishing returns. Rev. Wright, birther stuff, etc. isn't going to convince anyone who's on the fence, hence why Romney's campaign will only stick to attacking Obama's record.
Plus going after religion opens up Romney to a third party attack on all the mormon stuff. My guess is the Romney campaign will try to stop it but given the rules on campaign colluding with PACs how effective they'll be remains to be seen. Gotta admit it'll be hilarious if Citizens United, which was designed specifically to get big money guys like Romney elected, winds up backfiring by letting any crazy old coot with too much money air pet grievance ads which turn off the public.
Which brings it back to Fisher winning in Nebraska. Bruning and Stenburg attacking each other brought down their numbers and created an opportunity for Fisher.
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