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The really bad news in this poll for Republicans is the numbers of Latinos in FL and women in all the states that are for Obama. The right wing of the party has poisoned the well for Romney with the racism and "wars" against these groups. It wasn't supposed to matter in FL, because they are Cubans, after all. And women would not care if some of them had to have humiliating procedures done to them for no medically defensible reason. It is not working out that way. People know when they are being victimized. The painful rebuke will come for Republicans in November and last for decades.
I think you are right. Romney is carrying all his own baggage (modest), but also the baggage of the Teap Party fringe, who don't like him much. Anyone except a true believer knows a vote for Romney is a vote for the birthers too.
I've said this before, and I'll say it again: it is still too early to gauge the November outcome from opinion polls at this time. I am not saying polls are useless or don't indicate the feelings of voters, it is just too soon to predict what the percentages will be of the actual vote in November. We'll have to wait until both political conventions are over and the candidates have debated each other to get a better picture.
That Pennsylvania will go for Obama is almost certain, so that is not news. The major cities and towns always go for the Democrats in the presidential elections, and the GOP always does better in the off-year election. Here in Philadelphia Republicans make up only 17% of the registered voters.
"The polls from Quinnipiac University showed Obama with a razor-thin four point advantage in Florida, 45%-41%. That was within the poll's 2.8% sampling error. In Pennsylvania, Obama's led Romney 45%-39%, and in Ohio, the Democratic incumbent was ahead 47%-38%."
I'll admit, that I have a hard time believing that Obama is ahead by 9% in Ohio and is ahead by more in Ohio than PA or FL.
Ohio has an unpopular Republican governor and a quickly improving economy. It's not rocket science why Obama is ahead. It's probably not 9%, but it's not the toss up people are making it out to be.
Obama is hitting these states hard after the same polls gave Romney a bounce last month. Romney is showing the same weakness as he did in the primaries. Once a little daylight is directed to his Bain activities and his (latest) positions on the issues, people turn away. They realize that while Obama is far from perfect, he is a better choice for working people than Romney and the right wing zealots that come along with him.
This is all the bump Obama has gotten out of all of the millions of negative ads they are running and actually have been running since early in the Republican primary? Pretty weak in my opinion. It's way early, and the Romney campaign is letting them burn that money up. Their burn rate is unbelievable and really stupid this early. They better save some of that for when it counts.
The libs and their MSM allies pick and choose which polls to focus on. They'll ignore a poll by Weaskamerica which has Obama down in Ohio but amplify one that has him up.
I maybe confusing polls but I believe Weaskamerica correctly picked the Walker margin while the rest of media said it was too close to call.
If you look at the RCP site and look at all the polls for Ohio the last 6 months, only 4 out of the dozens listed in that time period have shown a Romney lead. The rest all have been Obama. This is not exactly a singular poll.
I have a home in Ohio, and one in Pa, and I can tell you first hand that there is huge dissatisfaction in Obama in Ohio. It might be just where I live, but considering I live near the Lordstown GM factory, one would think Obama would have tons of support here, but doesnt.
Anecdotals are basically worthless. I doubt your friends are liberals/Democrats. You can find conservatives and Republicans everywhere, even in strong union areas (and vice versa). Anecdotals don't equal polling.
So you think I take a poll, before I think about who I should talk to? How often do you think this takes place? How do you explain the fact that many of them are GM workers but cant stand Obama?
I could just as easily say that the majority of the people I know in Ohio plan to vote for Obama and saying so would be just as worthless as your anecdotal. They don't matter and they don't measure the state of politics in an entire state.
Anecdotals are basically worthless. I doubt your friends are liberals/Democrats. You can find conservatives and Republicans everywhere, even in strong union areas (and vice versa). Anecdotals don't equal polling.
Which is why I never proclaimed I took a poll
But if anecdotals are worthless, then clearly you'd admit your postings are worthless then right, because your opinion, is nothing more than an anectdotal posting of society..
The trend is not towards Obama. Did you see the PPP Ohio poll yesterday? It had Obama up by 3, within the margin of error. The last PPP Ohio poll had Obama up by 7. And Nate Silver has found that PPP has a "house effect" that leans Democrat of over 3 points.
Even in the Quinnipiac polls...
In all the polls (even in PA), less than 50% approve of how Obama is handling his job and less than 50% feel he deserves to be re-elected.
In the Quinnipiac polls, the trend is actually towards Romney. The last Quinnipiac PA poll in PA had Obama up by 8, this one had Obama up only by 6. The last one had Obama at 50% I believe. This does not.
In the last Quinnipiac FL poll, Obama was up by 4, in this one he is also up by 4. And his 46% has come down to 45%.
You're really good at spin, afoie... This should be your job, but with your voracity on this forum, I suspect that it already is.
Quote:
I have a home in Ohio, and one in Pa, and I can tell you first hand that there is huge dissatisfaction in Obama in Ohio. It might be just where I live, but considering I live near the Lordstown GM factory, one would think Obama would have tons of support here, but doesnt.
I live smack-dab in the middle of Columbus in a middle-class, white neighbourhood, and Obama is beloved. You'd think that middle-class whites would be dissatisfied with him, but they aren't...
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